FIGR — Earnings Review (Atlas)
Date: 2026-02-21 Quarter: Q4 FY25 (preliminary) + Q3 FY25 (reported)
Market cap: $3.8B | EV/TTM Rev: 7.5x | Revenue growth: 91% YoY (Q4)
Verdict
FIGR is the most interesting growth story I have reviewed in the
fintech space. Revenue is accelerating — 12% to 31% to 55% to 91% YoY
over four quarters — on a blockchain-native lending marketplace with 75%
market share in RWA tokenization, 51% EBITDA margins, and a valuation of
7.5x TTM revenue. The anti-thesis centers on IPO recency, customer
concentration, SBC magnitude, and the inherent cyclicality of HELOC
origination in a rate-sensitive environment. Conviction:
4/5. The growth-adjusted valuation is among the cheapest in the
portfolio. The February 26 earnings call is the next critical data
point.
Qualification Gate
| Criterion |
Threshold |
FIGR |
Pass? |
| Revenue YoY growth |
>30% (>40% preferred) |
91% (Q4), 55% (Q3) |
PASS |
| Gross margin |
>60% |
Not disclosed (fintech model; EBITDA margin 51%) |
N/A |
| Revenue per quarter |
>$50M |
$160M (Q4) |
PASS |
| Data availability |
4+ quarters |
12 quarters in DB |
PASS |
| Share dilution |
<10% annual |
~60% (IPO dilution, one-time) |
WATCH |
| GAAP profitability trajectory |
Improving or positive |
Net income $13M Q4, $89.8M Q3; EBITDA $81.5M Q4 |
PASS |
The dilution flag is IPO-related (went public Sept 2025), not
recurring. Ongoing dilution from SBC is the real concern — $40M in Q4
FY25 alone (64% of FY total). Must verify run-rate on Feb 26 call.
Six-Factor Score
| Factor |
Rating |
Detail |
| Growth |
Strong |
91% YoY (Q4), 55% (Q3). TTM revenue 507M, upfrom 341M
prior year TTM. |
| Trajectory |
Accelerating |
12% → 31% → 55% → 91% over Q1-Q4 FY25. Marketplace volume +131% YoY
outpaces revenue. |
| Margins |
High |
EBITDA margin 55.4% (Q3), 51% (Q4). Operating margin 33.7% (Q3). Adj
EBITDA margin expanded from (5.6%) FY23 to ~49% FY25. |
| Dominance |
Dominant |
75% market share in RWA tokenization. #1 non-bank HELOC lender. AAA
S&P rating on blockchain securitization (first ever). 200+ active
partners. |
| Valuation |
Cheap |
EV/TTM Rev 7.5x on 91% growth = 0.08x growth-adjusted. P/EBITDA
~11x. Consensus PT $60 vs $29 current — 107% upside implied. |
| Special |
Present |
IPO <6 months (under-followed). Figure Connect breakout ($0 to
26% of revenue in 9 months). YLDS stablecoin $376M+ circulation.
Blockchain secular tailwind. |
The Numbers
Revenue (12 Quarters)
| | Q124 | Q224 | Q324 | Q424 | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 | Q425 | Q126 |
Q226 | Q326 | Q426 | | | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 |
Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 | Mar-26 | Jun-26 | Sep-26 | Dec-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Revenue ($m) |
75.3 | 80.8 | 101.0 | 83.9 | 84.5 | 106.1 | 156.4 | 160.0 | 140.7 |
161.2 | 222.4 | 199.8 | | YoY % | — | — | — | — | 12.3% | 31.4% | 54.8%
| 90.8% | 66.5% | 52.0% | 42.2% | 24.9% | | QoQ % | — | 7.3% | 25.1% |
-17.0% | 0.8% | 25.5% | 47.4% | 2.3% | -12.1% | 14.6% | 37.9% | -10.2%
|
Note: Q1-Q4 FY26 data in DB appears to be projections/estimates.
Treat with caution.
Profitability [GAAP]
|
Q324 |
Q424 |
Q325 |
Q425 |
| EBITDA ($m) |
49.4 |
15.4 |
86.4 |
81.5 |
| EBITDA Margin % |
44.9% |
20.2% |
55.4% |
51.0% |
| Net Income ($m) |
27.4 |
5.9 |
89.8 |
13.0 |
| Net Margin % |
27.1% |
7.0% |
57.4% |
8.1% |
Q3 net income inflated by IPO-related items. Q4 net income depressed
by $40M SBC. EBITDA is the cleaner profitability metric — steady at
51-55%.
Revenue Composition (Q3 FY25)
| Stream |
$m |
% of Total |
YoY Growth |
| Gains on Sale of Loans |
63.6 |
41% |
+11% |
| Ecosystem & Tech Fees |
35.7 |
23% |
+388% |
| Origination Fees |
21.4 |
14% |
+13% |
| Interest Income |
17.9 |
11% |
+40% |
| Gains on Servicing Asset |
9.3 |
6% |
N/M |
| Servicing Fees |
7.9 |
5% |
+22% |
The critical shift: Ecosystem & Tech Fees (platform revenue) grew
from $7.3M to $35.7M YoY — nearly 5x. This is the highest-quality, most
recurring revenue stream and now represents 23% of revenue, up from ~7%
a year ago. Figure Connect drove this.
Thesis / Anti-Thesis
Thesis
- Accelerating revenue on a massive TAM. $2T consumer
lending market. Revenue accelerating 12% → 91% YoY. Marketplace volume
growing 131% YoY — leading indicator outpacing revenue.
- Platform economics improving. Ecosystem & Tech
Fees (platform take-rate) growing 5x YoY. Figure Connect went from zero
to 26% of revenue in 9 months. As platform adoption deepens, revenue
quality improves.
- Dominant market position. 75% share of RWA
tokenization. #1 non-bank HELOC. First AAA-rated blockchain
securitization. 200+ partners, 76 DART participants (91% adoption).
- Profitably growing. 51% EBITDA margins while
growing 91%. This is not a "grow at all costs" story.
- Absurdly cheap on a growth-adjusted basis. 7.5x TTM
revenue on 91% growth. Consensus PT $60 implies 107% upside. Piper
Sandler PT $75.
Anti-Thesis
- Customer concentration. Top 2 customers = 76% of
UPB purchased. One departure would be devastating.
- SBC overhang. $40M in Q4 alone (64% of FY total
SBC). If this normalizes, fine. If not, GAAP profitability erodes
materially.
- Rate sensitivity. HELOC origination is directly
correlated with interest rates. A rising rate environment compresses
origination volume.
- IPO recency. Only 2 quarters of public data.
Management credibility unproven. No guidance track record.
- Revenue lumpiness. Gains on Sale of Loans (41% of
revenue) is inherently lumpy — Q3 peaks, Q4 dips. Seasonality obscures
underlying trend.
- Mike Cagney's history. Co-founder was previously
CEO of SoFi, departed under a cloud (sexual harassment allegations,
2017). Reputational risk persists.
Leading Indicators
| Indicator |
Q3 FY25 |
Q4 FY25 |
Trend |
Signal |
| Marketplace Volume |
$2.47B |
$2.71B |
+10% QoQ, +131% YoY |
Bullish — growing faster than revenue |
| YLDS Balance |
$100M |
$328M |
+228% QoQ |
Bullish — stablecoin adoption accelerating |
| Ecosystem & Tech Fees |
$35.7M |
$45.7M |
+28% QoQ |
Bullish — platform revenue expanding |
| Active Partners |
246 |
200 |
-19% QoQ |
Bearish — need explanation on Feb 26 call |
| Jan 2026 Marketplace Volume |
— |
$816M/mo |
+115% YoY |
Bullish — January strong |
| Matched Offers (Dem. Prime) |
— |
$206M |
New metric |
Bullish — new product traction |
Bullish divergence confirmed: Marketplace volume
(+131% YoY) and Ecosystem & Tech Fees (+388% YoY) are both
accelerating faster than headline revenue (+91% YoY). This typically
precedes further revenue acceleration or sustained high growth.
One bearish flag: Active partners declined from 246
to 200 QoQ. Could be seasonal (year-end), partner consolidation, or
quality-over-quantity focus. Must clarify on Feb 26.
Scuttlebutt Findings
- Customer sentiment: Trustpilot 4.8/5 stars. Named
Best Overall HELOC (Investopedia 2025), Best Home Equity Lender
(Money.com 2025). Approval in 5 minutes, funding in 5 days. [Source: CoinCodeCap,
Figure.com]
- Employee sentiment: Glassdoor 3.9/5 (217 reviews).
75% recommend, 75% positive business outlook. Reasonable for a
growth-stage fintech. [Source: Glassdoor]
- Analyst consensus: 9 analysts, consensus Buy.
Average PT $60.25 (range 42−75). Piper
Sandler 75(Overweight).BofAdowngradedtoUnderperform/42
on Feb 3. Divergent views suggest the stock is debatable — good for
opportunity. [Source: MarketBeat,
Defense
World]
- Competitive position: 75% market share in RWA
tokenization. Competitors: SoFi, Rocket (HELOC); Coinbase, Securitize,
tZERO (digital assets); Amount, Percent (infrastructure). Provenance
Blockchain is the moat. [Source: Artemis
Analytics]
- Management: Mike Cagney (Co-Founder/Exec Chairman)
departed SoFi under sexual harassment allegations in 2017. Michael
Tannenbaum (CEO) and Macrina Kgil (CFO). Cagney's track record at SoFi
was operationally strong but reputationally marred. [Source: Wikipedia]
- Recent catalyst: Figure Markets merger (July 2025)
created vertically integrated origination-to-trading platform. $22B+
cumulative HELOC originations. [Source: BusinessWire]
- January 2026 data: $816M marketplace volume (+115%
YoY). YLDS $376M (+15% MoM). Democratized Prime matched offers +23% MoM.
[Source: GlobeNewsWire]
Valuation Context
| Metric |
Current |
Assessment |
| Market Cap |
$3.8B |
|
| EV/TTM Revenue |
~7.5x |
On 91% YoY growth: 0.08x growth-adjusted. Cheap. |
| P/EBITDA (annualized Q4) |
~11x |
Exceptionally cheap for a 90%+ grower |
| P/FCF (annualized 9M) |
~86x |
Elevated — FCF lags EBITDA due to working capital in lending
model |
| Consensus PT |
$60.25 |
107% upside from $29.13 |
| Growth-adjusted P/S |
0.08x |
Best in wsm portfolio (most companies 0.3-0.5x) |
Peer comparison is difficult — FIGR has no direct
public comp at this scale. Closest analogues: SoFi (14x revenue, 34%
growth), HOOD (8x revenue, 60% growth). FIGR is cheaper than both on a
growth-adjusted basis.
BofA's $42 bear case implies ~12x forward P/E — reasonable if growth
decelerates sharply. Piper's $75 bull case implies ~19x forward P/E —
reasonable if growth sustains.
- Secular trend: RWA tokenization + blockchain
capital markets. This is the intersection of fintech and crypto
infrastructure. Figure is the clear leader.
- Platform vs. point solution: Platform. Figure
operates across origination (HELOC), marketplace (loan trading),
infrastructure (Provenance Blockchain), stablecoins (YLDS), and
secondary markets (Figure Connect, Democratized Prime). Multi-product,
vertically integrated.
- TAM: $2T consumer lending market. $6B HELOC
facilitated in trailing 12 months = <1% penetration. HELOC alone is a
$300B+ annual market.
- Network effects: More partners originating on
Provenance → more liquidity on Figure Connect → better pricing for
borrowers → more origination. Classic marketplace flywheel.
Key Risks
- Customer concentration (76% top-2). Single point of
failure. Diversification trend must be tracked quarterly.
- SBC run-rate. $40M in Q4 FY25 (one-off grants or
recurring?). If recurring at this level, GAAP EPS will disappoint
despite EBITDA strength.
- Rate environment. HELOC origination is
rate-sensitive. Rising rates compress the $2T TAM. Figure
Connect/platform fees partially insulate but don't eliminate.
- Regulatory risk. Blockchain-native lending and
tokenized securities operate in evolving regulatory frameworks. SEC/CFPB
scrutiny could impose costs.
- Cagney reputational overhang. While he's Executive
Chairman (not CEO), his association with Figure is well-known. Any
resurfacing of prior controversies affects the stock.
Key Catalysts
- Feb 26 earnings call. First full Q4 results +
potential FY26 guidance. SBC clarification. Partner count explanation.
This is the single most important near-term event.
- Figure Connect scaling. Went from $0 to 26% of
revenue in 9 months. If this continues, platform economics improve
structurally — higher take-rates, more recurring revenue.
- YLDS stablecoin adoption. $376M circulation growing
15% MoM. If YLDS achieves meaningful scale, it becomes a DeFi primitive
generating continuous interest income.
- Democratized Prime launch. New product with $206M
matched offers in Q4. Opens institutional-quality lending to broader
market. Incremental revenue stream.
- Potential index inclusion. At $3.8B market cap with
growing float, FIGR approaches eligibility for small-cap indices,
driving passive flows.
Position disclosure: FIGR is a 4.7% position in wsm007's
portfolio.