Date: 2026-04-03 Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec 2025) Market cap: ~$5.3B | EV/TTM Rev: 8.8x | Revenue growth: +78% YoY (Q4), +87% FY25
Q4 FY25 was the strongest quarter in TGTX's history -- $192.6M revenue (+78% YoY, +19.1% QoQ), $50.5M operating income (26.2% margin), record new patient enrollments, and QoQ re-acceleration that broke a three-quarter deceleration trend. The beat-and-raise pattern continues: FY25 landed $616M vs initial $565M guide. FY26 guidance of $888M midpoint implies 44% growth, likely conservative given the 8-10% historical beat rate. Gross margin compression to 80.2% (8 consecutive quarters of decline) is the only blemish, but op margin expansion to 20% FY25 demonstrates operating leverage offsetting the COGS headwind. Post-quarter, the $750M Blue Owl refinancing and $300M buyback authorization signal management conviction. Conviction: 3.5/5 -- unchanged from stock analysis. Execution is excellent; single-product concentration remains the structural cap.
| Criterion | Threshold | TGTX Q4 FY25 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% (>40% pref) | +78% Q4, +87% FY25, +44% guided FY26 | PASS |
| Gross margin | >60% (>70% pref) | 80.2% Q4, 83.6% FY25 [GAAP] | PASS |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $192.6M | PASS |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 16 quarters in DB | PASS |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | -9.0% (buyback-driven reduction: 175M to 159M) | PASS |
| GAAP profitability | Improving or positive | $123.3M FY25 op income (20.0% margin), 4th consecutive profitable Q | PASS |
All gates passed. TGTX is a top-decile growth profile: 80%+ gross margins, accelerating absolute dollar growth, and structural GAAP profitability in only the third year of commercial operations.
| Factor | Rating | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | Strong | +87% FY25 YoY, +78% Q4 YoY. Absolute dollar adds accelerating: +30.9MQoQinQ4vs+20.6M in Q3, +$20.2M in Q2. FY26 guided +44% |
| Trajectory | Flat | YoY % decelerating (92% to 78% to 44% guided) per law of large numbers. But QoQ re-accelerated (+14.6% to +19.1%), and incremental revenue dollars expanding. Organic deceleration, not demand deterioration |
| Margins | Mid | Gross 80.2% compressing (91.5% at launch peak to 80.2% now -- 11.3pp in 8Q). Op margin expanding: 12.7% FY24 to 20.0% FY25. SG&A leverage offsetting GM compression. $100M SC manufacturing in FY26 is a near-term GM headwind |
| Dominance | Contested | Third-place in anti-CD20 behind Ocrevus (7.6B)andKesimpta(3B+). Differentiated on infusion time (~1hr vs 3.5hr) and cost ($59K vs $71K). Fenebrutinib (oral BTK) hit all 3 Phase III endpoints -- structural threat 2-3 years from market |
| Valuation | Fair | EV/TTM Rev 8.8x, EV/FY26 Rev 6.1x. Rule-of-X = 44% + 20% = 64. For 44% guided growth + 20% margins, 6x forward is reasonable. Not cheap, not rich |
| Special | Present | (1) SC BRIUMVI Phase III 75% enrolled, data YE2026 -- could double TAM. (2) Azer-cel in progressive MS -- zero approved therapies. (3) Founder 21% ($1B+). (4) $750M Blue Owl credit + $300M buyback (March 2026). (5) Consistent 8-10% beat vs initial guide |
| | Q1_FY24 | Q2_FY24 | Q3_FY24 | Q4_FY24 | Q1_FY25 | Q2_FY25 | Q3_FY25 | Q4_FY25 | | | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Revenue ($m) | 63.5 | 73.5 | 83.9 | 108.2 | 120.9 | 141.1 | 161.7 | 192.6 | | QoQ % | +44.3% | +15.7% | +14.1% | +29.0% | +11.7% | +16.7% | +14.6% | +19.1% | | YoY % | -- | -- | -- | -- | +90.4% | +92.0% | +92.7% | +78.0% | | Gross Margin % [GAAP] | 91.5% | 88.7% | 88.9% | 85.8% | 87.2% | 86.6% | 82.6% | 80.2% | | Op Margin % [GAAP] | -14.6% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 27.6% | 7.1% | 24.7% | 18.2% | 26.2% | | Op Income ($m) | -9.3 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 29.9 | 8.6 | 34.8 | 29.4 | 50.5 | | Net Income (m)|−10.7|6.9|3.9|23.3|5.1|28.2|390.9 * |23.0||EPS(diluted)|−0.07 | $0.04 | $0.02 | $0.16 | $0.03 | $0.17 | $2.43* | 0.14||SBC(m) | 9.3 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 15.0 | 16.4 | 17.7 | 15.6 |
*Q3 FY25 NI includes 339.8Mnon − recurringDTAvaluationallowancerelease.AdjustedNI 51.1M (~$0.32 EPS).
| FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 Guide (mid) | YoY FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 329.0 | 616.3 | 887.5 | +87.3% |
| BRIUMVI US ($m) | 309.5 | 594.1 | 837.5 | +91.9% |
| Gross Margin % | 88.3% | 83.6% | -- | -4.7pp |
| Op Income ($m) | 41.9 | 123.3 | -- | +194% |
| Op Margin % | 12.7% | 20.0% | -- | +7.3pp |
| Adj Net Income ($m) | 23.4 | ~107.4 | -- | +359% |
| OCF ($m) | -40.5 | -24.8 | -- | Improving |
| SBC ($m) | 42.5 | 64.7 | ~65 (est.) | +52% |
| SBC % of Rev | 12.9% | 10.5% | ~7.3% (est.) | -2.4pp |
Based on Q3 FY25 results and the raised FY guidance to ~$600M:
| Metric | Expected | Actual | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Revenue | $185-190M | $192.6M | Beat -- record quarter, +19.1% QoQ acceleration |
| BRIUMVI US | $170-180M | $182.7M | Beat -- +$29.8M QoQ (+19.5%) from Q3 |
| Gross Margin | 81-83% | 80.2% | Below -- hit new low; 11.3pp compression in 8Q |
| Op Margin | 23-27% | 26.2% | In line -- Q4 seasonal strength; SG&A leverage |
| FY25 Revenue | $605-620M | $616.3M | In line -- +$16M vs raised $600M guide |
| FY26 Guide | $800-900M | $875-900M | In line -- $888M midpoint implies +44% YoY |
| Q1 FY26 Guide | N/A | $190-200M (total) | Neutral -- roughly flat QoQ from Q4; consistent with Q1 seasonality |
| Capital Actions | Buybacks continue | $750M refi + $300M buyback auth (post-Q) | Positive surprise -- management backed rhetoric with action |
Three things surprised me:
The QoQ re-acceleration (+19.1%) was more emphatic than expected. After three quarters of sequential deceleration (Q4 FY24 +29% -> Q1 FY25 +12% -> Q2 +17% -> Q3 +15%), Q4 jumped to +19%. More importantly, incremental revenue dollar adds expanded: $12.7M, $20.2M, $20.6M, $30.9M. The launch curve is steepening, not flattening. This is the single most bullish data point in the quarter.
Gross margin compression hit 80.2% -- below my 81% floor. Eight consecutive quarters of decline from 91.5%. COGS up 162% YoY vs revenue +87% means manufacturing costs are scaling faster than revenue. The $100M incremental SC manufacturing investment in FY26 means this likely gets worse before it gets better. I now expect GM to trough at 76-78% in 2026 before recovering in 2027 post-buildout.
Post-quarter capital actions were more aggressive than expected. The $750M Blue Owl refinancing (replacing 250M, net+500M) and tripling the buyback authorization to $300M is a strong signal. Management said "we will not hesitate to add leverage" on the call, and three weeks later they did exactly that. The ~$38M repurchased at $28.98 avg (below current $33.53) was well-timed. This converts a vague commitment into a trackable position.
TGTX does not report RPO, NRR, ARR, or customer-count metrics. Available biotech leading indicators:
| Indicator | Signal | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| New patient enrollments | "Record" in Q4 (qualitative) | Bullish -- demand accelerating into year 3 of launch |
| QoQ revenue acceleration | +14.6% (Q3) to +19.1% (Q4) | Bullish -- broke 3-quarter deceleration trend |
| Incremental revenue dollars | $20.6M (Q3) to $30.9M (Q4) -- all-time high | Bullish -- curve steepening |
| Q1 FY26 guidance | $190-200M total vs Q4 actual $192.6M | Neutral -- Q1 seasonally soft; management guides conservatively |
| FY26 guidance cadence | 888Mmidpoint; H2implied 230M+/quarter | Bullish -- continued ramp |
| Ex-US revenue | $6.4M Q4 (first data point) | Early -- de minimis but establishes international revenue base |
| ENABLE real-world data | 99.5% relapse-free across 401 patients | Bullish -- real-world confirms pivotal trial efficacy |
No bearish divergence detected. All available indicators point in the same direction.
Historical guidance conservatism:
Scuttlebutt stage ran 2026-04-01. Supplemented with web search April 3, 2026:
| Metric | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Stock price | $33.53 | April 2, 2026 close |
| Shares outstanding (est.) | ~158M | 159.3M Q4 FY25 minus ~1.3M repurchased Q1 FY26 |
| Market cap | ~$5.30B | |
| Gross debt | $750M | Blue Owl term loan (March 2026; replaces $250M) |
| Cash (est.) | ~$640M | $199.5M (Q4) + $500M net proceeds - 38Mbuybacks− 20M Q1 ops |
| Enterprise value | ~$5.41B |
| Metric | Current | 1Y Ago (est.) | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/TTM Revenue | 8.8x | ~15x (est. on $329M FY24) | Compressed despite stock gains, driven by revenue ramp |
| EV/FY26 Revenue (guide) | 6.1x | N/A | Reasonable for 44% guided growth |
| EV/FY26 Revenue (beat est.) | 5.6x | N/A | Attractive if 9% beat materialises |
| EV/TTM Op Income | 43.9x | ~120x (est.) | Rapidly improving with margin expansion |
| P/E (adj, FY25) | ~49x | >200x (est.) | Reflects early profitability stage |
| Rule-of-X | 64 | -- | Well above 40 threshold |
| Company | EV/NTM Rev | Rev Growth | Op Margin | Profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGTX | ~6x | +44% | 20% | Single product, MS, commercial ramp |
| ARGX | ~12x | +50% | Negative | Single product (Vyvgart), MG |
| SRPT | ~8x | +30% | Improving | Rare disease, gene therapy |
| VRTX | ~12x | +12% | +45% | Multi-product, CF + pain |
| HALO | ~10x | +20% | +50% | Royalty-driven, mature |
TGTX trades at a discount to commercial-stage biopharma peers growing >30%. The discount reflects single-product concentration and fenebrutinib. If SC BRIUMVI succeeds and diversifies the revenue base, re-rating toward 10-12x forward revenue ($56-69/share) is a realistic 18-24 month scenario.
Secular trend: High-efficacy MS therapy adoption. MS therapeutics market ~28B(2024)growingto 39B by 2030 (CAGR ~6%). Anti-CD20 class gaining share from older platform therapies.
Platform status: Currently a point solution -- one drug, one indication, one formulation. The 2026-2028 roadmap builds toward platform: SC BRIUMVI (2028 launch), indication expansion (MG, lupus, autoimmune), azer-cel (CAR-T for progressive MS), and combination approaches. If 2-3 succeed, TGTX transitions to multi-product platform. Today, it is not there.
TAM penetration: BRIUMVI FY25 US revenue (594M)is 610B anti-CD20 infusion market. With SC formulation, addressable segment expands to ~$13-14B. Peak BRIUMVI estimates range $2-4B. Barely penetrated.
Analysis produced: 2026-04-03 | Atlas baseline earnings review | Q4 FY25 (Dec 2025) Data sources: Scout brief (TGTX_earnings-review_2026-04-03), EDGAR XBRL, Q4 FY25 PR, Q4 FY25 transcript summary, scuttlebutt (2026-04-01), quant prep (Q4 FY25), web search (April 3, 2026) Position disclosure: Atlas holds no positions.
Note on quant-prep flag correction: The quant-prep stage flagged BRIUMVI US $182.7M as a "miss" against $185-190M. This is incorrect -- the 185 − 190MrangewasQ1FY26forwardguidance, notQ4FY25guidance.Q4FY25hadnoexplicitquarterlyguidance; theimpliedtargetwas 176M (FY $600M guide minus Q1-Q3 actuals). Q4 actuals of 192.6Mrepresenta 16.6M / +9.4% beat vs implied.