Date: 2026-04-03 Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec 31, 2025; reported Feb 19, 2026) Market cap: 2.81B|EV/TTMRev : 5.7x|Revenuegrowth : 73.4Stockprice: 30.93 (Apr 3, 2026) | Shares: 90.9M diluted
FILSPARI's commercial trajectory is exceptional and accelerating at the demand level — record 908 PSFs in Q4 (+24% QoQ), $103.3M product revenue (first $100M+ quarter), and annual OCF turning positive for the first time in company history. The headline revenue "miss" of -$18M vs consensus is a license revenue timing artifact, not a fundamental signal. With FSGS PDUFA 10 days away (April 13), this is a company where the underlying product engine is firing on all cylinders while the stock trades at 5.7x trailing revenue on 110% growth. Conviction: 4/5 — unchanged from stock analysis. The FSGS binary and A/R divergence prevent maximum conviction.
| Criterion | Threshold | Actual | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% | +73.4% Q4; +110.3% FY25 | PASS |
| Gross margin | >60% | 98.0% (GAAP) | PASS |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $129.7M | PASS |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 16 quarters | PASS |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | ~8.7% (83.1M to 90.3M) | PASS |
| GAAP profitability trajectory | Improving or positive | FY25 loss -25.5Mvs−321.5M; first OCF-positive year | PASS |
All gates passed.
| Factor | Rating | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | Strong | FY25 +110.3% YoY (490.7M); FILSPARI + 144322M); Q4 FILSPARI +108% YoY ($103.3M). Core product growth obscured by $80.3M in FY25 license revenue that won't recur. |
| Trajectory | Accelerating (annual) / Decelerating (quarterly) | FY23 +33% -> FY24 +60% -> FY25 +110% at annual level. Quarterly YoY: 97% -> 112% -> 162% -> 73%. Q3 peak was license-inflated; Q4 decline is normalization. FILSPARI product-level QoQ adds stable at $12-14M/Q. |
| Margins | Exceptional | Gross 98% (essentially zero marginal COGS on specialty pharma). Non-GAAP FY25 op income +42.8M(8.737.8M). |
| Dominance | Strong | Only IgAN drug with proven eGFR benefit; KDIGO first-line endorsement; 2-year commercial head start. Vanrafia ALIGN Phase 3 missed primary endpoint (p=0.057), neutralizing its strongest differentiation claim. If FSGS approved = first-and-only drug in indication. |
| Valuation | Cheap | EV/TTM Rev 5.7x on 110% growth = PEG 0.05. Non-GAAP P/E ~31x. Peer specialty biopharma at 4-6x grows 20-40%. TVTX growing 3-5x faster at a comparable multiple. |
| Special | Present | FSGS PDUFA April 13 (10 days). $25M Mirum milestone H1 2026. REMS simplification (Aug 2025) reducing prescription friction. KDIGO first-line endorsement expanding addressable population. Japan NDA (Chugai) expected 2026. |
| Q1 FY23 | Q2 FY23 | Q3 FY23 | Q4 FY23 | Q1 FY24 | Q2 FY24 | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 30.9 | 32.2 | 37.1 | 45.1 | 41.4 | 54.1 | 62.9 | 74.8 | 81.7 | 114.4 | 164.9 | 129.7 |
| YoY % | 32.1% | 12.6% | 32.0% | 53.9% | 34.0% | 68.0% | 69.5% | 65.9% | 97.3% | 111.5% | 162.2% | 73.4% |
| QoQ % | 5.5% | 4.2% | 15.2% | 21.6% | -8.2% | 30.7% | 16.3% | 18.9% | 9.2% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -21.3% |
| Gross Margin [GAAP] | 86.7% | 95.3% | 96.5% | 89.8% | 96.4% | 96.1% | 97.5% | 96.5% | 94.2% | 98.7% | 99.0% | 98.0% |
| Op Margin [GAAP] | -315% | -323% | -250% | -209% | -336% | -125% | -89% | -81% | -52% | -11% | +15% | -25% |
| Op Margin [Non-GAAP] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -23% | +11% | +32% | -2% |
| EPS (GAAP) | -1.27 | -1.13 | +1.97* | -1.18 | -1.76 | -0.91 | -0.70 | -0.71 | -0.47 | -0.14 | +0.28 | +0.03 |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | +0.13 | +0.59 | +0.37 |
*Q3 FY23: $150.7M one-time gain from discontinued operations. Not recurring.
| Q1 FY24 | Q2 FY24 | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FILSPARI ($M) | 19.8 | 27.1 | 35.6 | 49.6 | 55.9 | 71.9 | 90.9 | 103.3 |
| QoQ % | -- | +37% | +31% | +39% | +13% | +29% | +26% | +14% |
| YoY % | -- | -- | -- | -- | +182% | +165% | +155% | +108% |
| QoQ $ add | -- | +7.3 | +8.5 | +14.0 | +6.3 | +16.0 | +19.0 | +12.4 |
Run-rate: $103.3M x 4 = $413M annualized. FY25 total: $322M (+144% YoY).
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual OCF ($M) | -325.4 | -230.0 | +37.8 |
| Annual FCF ($M) | -- | -- | -20.4 |
| Annual SBC ($M) | ~44 | 36.9 | 44.9 |
Context: Prior analysis was a stock analysis (April 1, 2026) using the same Q4 FY25 data. This is the first formal earnings review. Prior beliefs represent expectations formed during the stock analysis process.
| Metric | Prior Belief | Actual / Updated View | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| FILSPARI Q4 revenue | Expected >$100M given Q3 run-rate of $90.9M | $103.3M (+14% QoQ) -- cleared $100M milestone | Confirmed |
| License revenue normalization | Expected Q4 to normalize from Q3's $51.7M spike | $3.1M -- normalized more sharply than expected | Confirmed (sharper) |
| Total revenue vs consensus | Expected consensus miss due to license lumpiness | -18Mvsconsensus( 147.7M). Product-level likely met/beat. | Expected |
| PSF trajectory | Expected growth continuation after Q3 dip (731) | 908 -- all-time high, +24% QoQ. Strongest quarter ever. | Beat expectations |
| Cash flow | Expected continued improvement toward OCF positive | FY25 OCF +37.8M(firstpositiveyear); Q4OCF+11.5M | Confirmed |
| SG&A trajectory | Expected pre-FSGS launch spend elevation | $101.7M (+46% YoY) -- higher than expected. Investing ahead of April 13. | Slightly worse than expected |
| A/R concern | Flagged as watch item in stock analysis | $80.1M (+195% YoY vs +73% revenue). Divergence confirmed. | Concern validated |
| Non-GAAP profitability | Expected continued profitability | Non-GAAP net $33.3M (Q4); FY25 $81.1M. In-line with $0.37 EPS consensus. | In-line |
What surprised: PSF count of 908 was the strongest signal in the quarter. After a Q3 dip (731 from 745), the +24% sequential rebound suggests REMS simplification (Aug 2025) and KDIGO guideline endorsement (Sept 2025) are both feeding into accelerating prescriber adoption with a 1-2 quarter lag. This is the most important forward-looking indicator in the dataset.
What concerned: A/R at $80.1M growing at 2.7x the rate of revenue is a yellow flag I am actively watching. DSO implied at ~56 days is not alarming in isolation for specialty pharma, but the trajectory matters. If Q1 FY26 shows A/R stabilizing or declining while revenue grows, this concern resolves. If A/R continues diverging, it could signal payer mix deterioration or collection risk.
What was noise: The -$18M revenue "miss" vs consensus. The consensus modeled ~$20-25M in Q4 license revenue; the actual was $3.1M. FILSPARI product revenue of 103.3Mlikelybeatproduct − levelconsensus( 99M per quant prep). The headline miss is entirely a license timing artifact.
| Quarter | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSF Count | 745 | 731 | 908 |
| QoQ | -- | -1.9% | +24.2% |
908 PSFs is an all-time high. The PSF to revenue lag is typically 1-2 months (prior authorization and dispensing cycle). This signals strong FILSPARI revenue momentum into Q1-Q2 FY26 independent of the FSGS binary. The Q3 dip was noise; Q4 confirmed the structural uptrend.
FILSPARI QoQ dollar adds have stabilized in the 12 − 16MrangeacrossFY25(6.3M Q1, $16.0M Q2, $19.0M Q3, $12.4M Q4). The Q1 FY25 was low due to inventory dynamics; Q2-Q4 averaged $15.8M per quarter. On a product basis, the S-curve trajectory remains intact even as percentage growth naturally decelerates from 182% to 108% YoY.
FY25 OCF of +37.8Mwasthefirstpositiveyearincompanyhistory.Thetrajectory : FY23−325M -> FY24 -230M− > FY25+38M. This is a $363M improvement over two years. If FILSPARI continues growing and SG&A moderates, FY26 FCF should turn positive.
A/R grew +195% YoY to $80.1M while revenue grew +73% YoY. This 2.7x divergence is a bearish leading indicator that requires monitoring. The most benign explanation is H2 FY25 FILSPARI ramp creating natural AR buildup at specialty pharmacies. The concerning explanation is payer mix shifting toward slower-paying institutional/government accounts. DSO ~56 days. Need Q1 FY26 data to distinguish.
Comprehensive scuttlebutt conducted April 1-2, 2026. Key findings:
Clinical evidence strengthening: First real-world evidence (CKJ, Jan 2025) showed 62% UPCR reduction on top of SGLT2 inhibitors -- confirming FILSPARI works in combination with background therapy, not just as monotherapy. Broadens prescriber confidence. (Source: Oxford Academic/CKJ)
REMS simplification material: Aug 2025 FDA simplified monitoring from monthly to quarterly. Embryo-fetal toxicity monitoring fully removed. This was the single biggest operational barrier cited by nephrologists vs Vanrafia. (Source: Benzinga, Pharmacy Times)
Vanrafia ALIGN Phase 3 miss: Feb 13, 2026 -- Novartis ALIGN trial missed primary eGFR endpoint at p=0.057 (nearly identical to FILSPARI's PROTECT miss at p=0.058). Neutralizes Vanrafia's potential differentiation claim on kidney function preservation. (Source: Novartis PR, Fierce Pharma)
IgAN market expanding rapidly: 7MM market valued at ~$730M in 2024, projected 30.5% CAGR through 2034. Multi-drug market forming. (Source: DelveInsight)
Employee sentiment adequate: Glassdoor 3.7/5 (52 reviews). Strong comp/benefits (4.2/5), weak career advancement (2.8/5). ~385 employees, ~$1.1M revenue/employee. (Source: Glassdoor, Indeed)
Analyst consensus: 13 of 14 analysts rate Buy; 0 Sell. (Source: TipRanks)
Hiring lean and targeted: Field team 100+ reps targeting nephrology specialist overlap (IgAN/FSGS). Inducement awards to 10 new employees Feb 2026. (Source: BusinessWire)
| Metric | Current | 1Y Ago (est.) | Peer Median | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/TTM Revenue | 5.7x | ~10-15x (at ~$230M TTM) | 4-6x (mature biopharma) | Cheap -- growing 110% at mature pharma multiple |
| EV/TTM Gross Profit | 5.8x | ~10-15x | 5-8x | Cheap -- near-zero COGS means EV/GP approx EV/Rev |
| P/E (Non-GAAP, FY25) | ~31x | NM (losses) | 20-35x (profitable biopharma) | Fair -- reasonable for first year of profitability |
| PEG (P/S / growth) | 0.05 | NM | 0.15-0.40 | Exceptionally cheap |
| Rule of 40 | 117 | NM | 30-50 | Exceptional |
| Market cap | $2.81B | ~$1.5-2.0B (est.) | -- | -- |
The core valuation puzzle: TVTX is growing revenue at 110% YoY with 98% gross margins and trades at a multiple (5.7x) that mature 20-30% growers command. The discount reflects: (1) FSGS binary risk pricing, (2) biotech discount (single-product risk, regulatory overhang), (3) market unfamiliarity (TVTX was a chronic money-loser until 2025). If FSGS is approved and the company sustains 40-50% FY26 product revenue growth, a re-rate to 8-10x EV/TTM Revenue ($4.5-5.5B market cap) is plausible.
Secular trend: Rare/specialty kidney disease. IgAN is a chronic, progressive disease with ~150,000 diagnosed US patients and a 7MM market projected at 30% CAGR. FSGS adds ~50,000 addressable patients. Both conditions are lifelong treatment opportunities.
Platform assessment: TVTX is evolving from single-product toward kidney disease platform:
The 100+ nephrology field force is the shared GTM asset -- IgAN and FSGS target the same ~5,000 nephrologists. FSGS launch cost is incremental, not from scratch.
TAM penetration: FILSPARI $322M FY25 vs peak sales consensus 800M−1.2B+. At midpoint ($1B), ~32% penetrated -- early-to-mid S-curve.
FSGS PDUFA rejection (April 13) -- DUPLEX Phase 3 missed primary eGFR slope endpoint. FDA evaluating proteinuria as surrogate. Approval probability ~60-70%, not 80%+. Rejection triggers SG&A waste question and resets growth expectations.
Competitive intensification in IgAN -- Vanrafia (launched Apr 2025, no REMS), Voyxact (approved Nov 2025), Fabhalta (NDA expected 2026). FILSPARI maintains KDIGO first-line but market share pressure rising.
GTN headwind -- guided mid-20% vs ~20% FY25. ~$20-25M annual net revenue headwind. Government payer mix could exceed guidance.
A/R divergence -- +195% growth vs +73% revenue. If persists into Q1 FY26, signals collection quality issue.
Convertible notes overhang -- $311.7M at 31.87conversionprice.Stockat 30.93 is $0.94 below conversion. Thin margin between dilutive and non-dilutive.
FSGS PDUFA April 13, 2026 -- 10 days away. Approval opens first-and-only indication. Binary 20-40% upside potential.
$25M Mirum milestone H1 2026 -- Pre-announced sales-based milestone.
Q1 FY26 earnings (~May 2026) -- First quarter to validate FY26 FILSPARI trajectory, A/R trend, and GTN progression.
Japan NDA submission (Chugai, 2026) -- Opens second major geographic market.
FCF breakeven inflection (FY26) -- If FILSPARI grows >25% YoY and opex moderates, FY26 FCF should turn positive.
Analysis prepared by Atlas. Prior analysis: stock-analysis (2026-04-01). First formal earnings review for TVTX. FSGS PDUFA April 13, 2026 -- outcome unknown as of this writing.