Date: 2026-02-22 | By: GauchoRico | Status: Preliminary — full results & call Feb 26, 2026
Revenue accelerating to 91% YoY with 51% EBITDA margins on a blockchain-native lending platform that has gone from essentially zero to a $507M TTM revenue business in under four years. The valuation — 7.5x TTM revenue on 91% growth — is the cheapest growth-adjusted multiple I can find anywhere in my portfolio. This is a preliminary review; full Q4 results and earnings call are Feb 26. Plenty left to confirm, but the setup is extraordinary.
| Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 | |
| Revenue ($M) [Non-GAAP] | 75.3 | ~88 | ~101 | ~84 | ~95 | ~116 | 156.4 | ~160 |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — | — | +12% | +31% | +55% | +91% |
| QoQ Growth | — | — | — | ~(17%) | — | — | +35% | +2% |
| Adj EBITDA ($M) [Non-GAAP] | — | — | — | — | — | — | 86.4 | 80–83 |
| Adj EBITDA Margin | — | — | — | — | — | ~35% | 55.4% | 49.8–53.4% |
| GAAP Net Income ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | 89.8 | 12.5–13.5 |
| Net Margin [GAAP] | — | — | — | — | — | — | 57.4%* | ~8% |
*Q3 net margin inflated by IPO-related gains. Q4 GAAP NI depressed by $40M SBC charge.
Note: Q1-Q2 FY25 and Q1-Q4 FY24 figures for intermediate quarters reconstructed from YoY growth rates. Q4'25 is preliminary/unaudited. Full audited Q4 and FY25 results on Feb 26.
| Metric | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 (Prelim) | QoQ | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $156.4M | ~$160M | +2% | +91% |
| Adj EBITDA | $86.4M | $80–83M | (4%) | +75% |
| EBITDA Margin [Non-GAAP] | 55.4% | 49.8–53.4% | slight contraction | massive expansion |
| GAAP Net Income | $89.8M | $12.5–13.5M | (86%) | n/m |
| Marketplace Volume | $2.47B | $2.71B | +10% | +131% |
| YLDS Balance | $100M | $328M | +228% | n/m |
| Ecosystem & Tech Fees | $35.7M | ~$45.7M | +28% | +388% |
| Net Take Rate | 4.4% | — | — | — |
| DART Adoption | 91% | — | — | — |
| Servicing UPB | $11.3B | — | — | — |
| Stream | Q3 FY25 | % of Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gains on Sale of Loans | $63.6M | 41% | +11% |
| Ecosystem & Tech Fees | $35.7M | 23% | +388% |
| Origination Fees | $21.4M | 14% | +13% |
| Interest Income | $17.9M | 11% | +40% |
| Gains on Servicing Asset | $9.3M | 6% | — |
| Servicing Fees | $7.9M | 5% | +22% |
The platform shift is real and this is the number I keep coming back to. Ecosystem & Tech Fees went up 388% YoY in Q3 and +28% QoQ to an estimated $45.7M in Q4. That line is now heading toward 30% of revenue. When I see a gain-on-sale lending company transforming into a technology fee platform, that changes the multiple it deserves. SaaS-like recurring fees on a $2T market have a very different value than lumpy transaction gains.
| Factor | Assessment | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Growth >40% | ✅ PASS | 91% YoY Q4, 55% Q3 — not close to the line |
| 2. Trajectory | ✅ ACCELERATING | 12% → 31% → 55% → 91% — four consecutive quarters of acceleration |
| 3. Gross Margins | ✅ HIGH (proxy) | Gross margin not isolated but Adj EBITDA 51-55% indicates extremely high contribution margins |
| 4. Competitive Advantage | ✅ DOMINANT | 75% RWA market share, #1 non-bank HELOC, AAA S&P rating on Provenance Blockchain, 200+ partners, 91% DART adoption |
| 5. Valuation | ✅ CHEAP | EV/TTM Sales 7.5x on 91% growth = 0.08x growth-adjusted. P/EBITDA ~11x. Analyst consensus PT $60.25 = 107% upside |
| 6. Special Circumstances | ✅ MISPRICED | IPO <6 months → under-followed, limited sell-side coverage, institutional ownership still building. Figure Connect scaling from zero to 26% of revenue in 9 months |
All six factors pass. This is not a borderline case.
Accelerating growth on a platform inflection. The trajectory — 12% → 31% → 55% → 91% — is not what you see in mature lenders. That's what you see when a platform hits escape velocity. And the driver is partly marketplace expansion (more partners, more liquidity) but increasingly the technology fee layer. When Ecosystem & Tech Fees are growing at 388% YoY while the underlying origination grows at 13%, you're watching the platform monetization kick in on top of the core business. That's additive, and it's durable.
EBITDA margins at 51-55% while growing 91%. Holy smokes. This combination essentially never exists. Growth companies sacrifice margins to grow; mature companies have margins but not growth. FIGR is doing both. Yes, there are questions about whether gain-on-sale revenue is truly comparable to SaaS margins, but 55% EBITDA at 91% growth tells you the unit economics are exceptional.
Figure Connect is the wild card. $0 revenue 9 months ago. Now $1.13B in volume at 26% of Q3 revenue. This is the blockchain-native, non-bank capital markets infrastructure play that the market doesn't fully price in. If Figure Connect continues scaling — more financial institution participants adopting blockchain settlement infrastructure — FIGR transitions from "interesting HELOC company" to "financial infrastructure company." That's a different TAM and a different multiple.
**YLDS at 328Mandaccelerating. * *Thestablecoin(376M in January, +228% QoQ) is another leg of the platform. Dollar-denominated yield product. $376M in circulation growing ~15% per month isn't a rounding error anymore.
Customer concentration. Top-2 customers = 76% of UPB. That is a single point of failure. If one of those relationships deteriorates — pricing pressure, competitive alternatives, strategic change — revenue could fall sharply. This is my biggest concern and the one I'm watching most closely.
SBC magnitude. $40M in Q4 alone, representing 64% of full-year SBC in one quarter. That's $40M coming out of GAAP earnings and suppressing what would otherwise look like outstanding profitability. The question is whether this is an IPO-related front-load (one-time) or the run-rate going forward. Until I get the Feb 26 call and a clearer SBC cadence for FY26, I can't fully trust the GAAP numbers.
Rate sensitivity. HELOC origination is directly correlated with interest rates. If the rate environment shifts unfavorably — stays higher for longer — origination volumes will face pressure. This is a macro variable outside management's control.
No guidance history. Two quarters public. I can't assess management credibility on delivery because there's no track record of guide-and-beat cycles. They offered qualitative commentary only. I need FY26 guidance on Feb 26 to establish a baseline.
Mike Cagney. He left SoFi under serious allegations. I don't love having that reputational overhang on a position. Management quality is central to my investment process and this is a data point I can't ignore.
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $3.8B | |
| EV/TTM Revenue [Non-GAAP] | 7.5x | Peers: 15-20x for 50%+ growers |
| Growth-Adjusted P/S | 0.08x | (EV/Rev ÷ YoY growth) — best in my portfolio |
| P/EBITDA [Non-GAAP] | ~11x | Exceptional for 91% grower |
| P/FCF [GAAP] | ~86x | Elevated — FCF lags EBITDA; working capital drag in lending model |
| Analyst Consensus PT | $60.25 | Piper $75, BofA $42 — 107% upside to consensus |
The growth-adjusted P/S of 0.08x is the number that stops me cold every time I look at it. Compare that to what I pay for other positions: CRDO, RBRK, APP — all trading at higher growth-adjusted multiples with, in most cases, lower growth rates. At 7.5x TTM revenue on 91% growth, the market is either pricing in serious deceleration or hasn't fully discovered the company yet. Given the IPO was only 5 months ago, I lean toward the latter.
The FCF picture is messier than the EBITDA picture — working capital dynamics in a lending business create timing differences. But 33.2MFCFin9MFY25(44M annualized) on a $3.8B market cap isn't terrible, and as the business scales and capital recycling improves, FCF should converge toward EBITDA margins over time.
This is important context for Q4 and the setup into FY26:
These leading indicators all point in the right direction. The Democratized Prime launch is particularly interesting — AI/credit model matching prime-adjacent borrowers who would have been excluded by traditional underwriting. If this product scales, it meaningfully expands the addressable borrower pool.
Prior beliefs: No prior GauchoRico analysis on FIGR. First engagement.
Entering beliefs after this review:
Hold current 4.7% position. Await Feb 26 full results and call. Key things I need to hear:
If Feb 26 delivers FY26 guidance implying continued 50%+ growth + SBC normalizing + customer concentration diversifying, I would seriously consider adding to 7-8% of portfolio. This is the kind of setup — dominant position, cheap valuation, platform inflection — where I want to size up on confirmation. We will see what happens...
Intact, with conditions. The core thesis — blockchain-native lending marketplace disrupting $2T consumer lending, platform economics improving, cheap valuation — is fully supported by the data. The conditions for upgrading to "Strengthening" after Feb 26: (1) 50%+ growth guidance for FY26, (2) SBC clarity, (3) customer concentration not worsening.
The bear case is real (concentration, rate sensitivity, Cagney risk) but doesn't break the thesis at current valuation. At 7.5x TTM revenue on 91% growth, I'm being paid to take that risk.
GR
Data sources: Scout brief FIGR_earnings-review_2026-02-21, companies/FIGR.md, earnings/FIGR/_ROLLING.md, Atlas analysis FIGR_earnings-review_Q4_FY25.md Q4 FY25 figures preliminary/unaudited. Full results and call: Feb 26, 2026 4:30pm ET.