Date: 2026-03-31 Quarter: Q4 FY25 (ending Dec 31, 2025) Report Date: January 30, 2026 Price at analysis: ~$16.90 (down ~35% YTD, ~48% from Nov 2025 peak of 32.50) * *Marketcap : ** 22.7B | Shares: 1,346M | TBV/share: $7.01 | P/TBV: 2.4x TTM adj net revenue: 3.591B|EV: 19.6B | EV/TTM Rev: 5.5x FY26 guided adj EPS: $0.60 | Forward P/E: 28.2x
Holy smokes -- SoFi just delivered its first $1 billion revenue quarter, its first $1 billion EBITDA year, a Rule of 40 score of 68, and the stock is sitting here at $16.90?! Down 35% year-to-date while the business is accelerating?!
Let me be very clear about the central question for SOFI right now: Is 30%+ revenue growth with expanding margins sustainable for the next 3 years, and if so, is the stock absurdly cheap at 28x forward earnings?
The answer, based on the Q4 data, is almost certainly yes to both. Let me show you the math.
This is where I want to start, because everything else is in service of this question.
Current valuation:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $16.90 |
| Market cap | $22.7B |
| Net cash (cash $4.9B - debt $1.8B) | $3.1B |
| EV | ~$19.6B |
| TTM adj net revenue | $3.591B |
| EV/TTM Rev | 5.5x |
| FY26 guided adj EPS | $0.60 |
| Forward P/E (FY26) | 28.2x |
| PEG ratio (28.2x / 30% growth) | 0.94 |
Now here is where it gets really interesting. Management guided a 38-42% adj EPS CAGR from FY25 to FY28. Two scenarios:
Scenario 1: Management Delivers (30% rev CAGR, 40% EPS CAGR)
| FY25 (Actual) | FY26 (Guided) | FY27 (Proj) | FY28 (Proj) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adj Net Revenue | $3.59B | $4.66B | $6.05B | $7.87B |
| Adj EBITDA Margin | 29% | 34% | 35% | 36% |
| Adj EBITDA | $1.05B | $1.60B | $2.12B | $2.83B |
| Adj EPS | $0.39 | $0.60 | $0.84 | $1.18 |
| P/E on today's $16.90 | 43x | 28x | 20x | 14.3x |
| EV/EBITDA on today's $19.6B EV | 19x | 12x | 9x | 6.9x |
14x FY28 earnings for a 30% revenue compounder?! That's a number I'd associate with a no-growth utility.
Scenario 2: Conservative (25% rev CAGR, 30% EPS CAGR)
| FY25 (Actual) | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adj Net Revenue | $3.59B | $4.49B | $5.61B | $7.01B |
| Adj EPS | $0.39 | $0.51 | $0.66 | $0.86 |
| P/E on today's $16.90 | 43x | 33x | 26x | 19.7x |
Even 5pp below management's rev CAGR and 10pp below EPS CAGR -- under 20x FY28 earnings for a 25% grower!
What the market is pricing in: At $16.90, the market says either (a) growth decelerates to mid-teens within 2 years, (b) credit losses destroy profitability, or (c) temporary dislocation from dilution and index-miss noise. I believe it is overwhelmingly (c). CEO Noto just put $1M personal money in at $17.50-18.20 on March 2. He would not be buying if growth were about to fall off a cliff.
Q4 FY25: $1,025.1M GAAP (+39.6% YoY) | $1,012.8M Adj (+37.0% YoY)
First $1B revenue quarter. Beat implied Q4 guide by $51M / +5.3%. FY25: $3.591B adj net rev, beating $3.54B guide on all metrics.
12-Quarter Adjusted Net Revenue Trajectory:
| Q1_23 | Q2_23 | Q3_23 | Q4_23 | Q1_24 | Q2_24 | Q3_24 | Q4_24 | Q1_25 | Q2_25 | Q3_25 | Q4_25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adj Rev ($M) | 472 | 498 | 531 | 594 | 581 | 597 | 689 | 739 | 771 | 858 | 950 | 1,013 |
| YoY% | 43% | 37% | 27% | 35% | 23% | 20% | 30% | 24% | 33% | 44% | 38% | 37% |
| QoQ% | 11% | 5% | 7% | 12% | -2% | 3% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 11% | 11% | 7% |
Trajectory: Stable-to-accelerating. FY25 was 38% YoY vs FY24's ~22% -- massive reacceleration at $3.6B scale. Q4 QoQ of +6.6% is typical seasonality (Q4 FY24 was +5.3%). YoY re-accelerated from Q3's 37.9% to Q4's 39.6%.
Fee-based revenue hit $443M in Q4 -- 44% of total, up from ~30% a year ago. Single most important trend.
This is why the stock is mispriced.
Segment Revenue (Q4 FY25):
| Segment | Q4 Rev | YoY% | Contrib Margin | FY25 Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lending | 499M(487M adj) | +19% adj | 55% | $1,849M |
| Financial Services | $457M | +78% | 51% | $1,542M |
| Technology Platform | $122M | +19% | 39% | $450M |
FS within 42MofovertakingLending.Atcurrenttrajectory(FS+37M/Q, Lending +$5M/Q), FS becomes largest segment by Q1 or Q2 FY26. This changes how the company should be valued -- from P/TBV bank multiple to P/S and EV/EBITDA platform multiple.
The LPB is the Hidden Gem Within the Gem:
LPB generated $193.7M Q4 revenue -- $775M annualized, growing 3x YoY. Pure fee-based revenue. Zero credit risk. Zero balance sheet capital.
On March 26 -- just 5 days ago -- SoFi announced $3.6B in new committed personal loan delivery:
Three independent institutional counterparties -- a bank, insurer, and asset manager -- all validating SoFi's loan origination platform through their own due diligence. This is not promotional. These are fiduciary-bound institutions.
LPB is now a proven institutional franchise heading toward $1B+ annualized revenue in FY26. At a software-like multiple (6-7x revenue), $1.5B LPB run-rate alone could be worth $8-10B -- nearly half the current market cap.
| Factor | Rating | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | PASS (Strong) | +39.6% YoY Q4, +38% FY25, guided 30%+ through FY28. At $3.6B scale. |
| Trajectory | Stable/Accelerating | FY25 reaccelerated from FY24's ~22%. YoY improving Q3 to Q4. |
| Gross Margins | PASS (High) | 84.2% Q4 -- near ATH. For a bank!! |
| Competitive Dominance | Strong (narrowing) | Bank charter moat. Galileo B2B powers competitors. First national bank stablecoin. BUT: Nubank OCC Jan 2026, Revolut applied March 2026. Window narrowing. |
| Valuation | Cheap | 28x FY26, PEG 0.94, 14.3x FY28. Cheaper than Nu (35x), AFRM (40x). CEO buying. |
| Special Circumstances | Yes | $3.6B LPB committed, crypto first-mover, S&P 500 inclusion pending, SoFi Plus subscription. |
| Metric | Q4_FY25 | Q3_FY25 | Q4_FY24 | YoY Change | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Members | 13.7M | 12.6M | 10.1M | +35% | Record adds (1.0M in Q4) |
| Products | 20.2M | 18.6M | 14.7M | +37% | Faster than members |
| Cross-buy rate | 40% | ~37% | ~33% | +7pp | Flywheel working |
| Rev/product (ann.) | $104 | ~$93 | ~$80 | +29% | Monetization accelerating |
| Deposits | $37.5B | $32.9B | ~$26B | +44% | Low-cost funding engine |
| NIM | 5.72% | -- | -- | -- | >5% "foreseeable future" |
| EBITDA margin | 31.4% | 28.8% | 26.8% | +4.6pp | ATH, above LT 30% target |
| Op margin (GAAP) | 18.1% | -- | 8.2% | +9.9pp | Massive operating leverage |
| Rule of 40 | 68 | 67 | 51 | +17 | Elite territory |
| TBV/share | $7.01 | -- | $4.47 | +57% | Book value compounding |
| Fee-based % rev | 44% | -- | ~30% | +14pp | Capital-light mix shift |
Every leading indicator positive and accelerating. Cross-buy at 40% is the most important -- one-stop-shop flywheel delivering.
"All cylinders are hitting very strongly right now."
"SoFi USD will be a game changer for our business as it enables us to be an infrastructure provider for banks, fintechs and enterprise platforms."
10/monthforpreviouslyfreetier.Mathnetnegativeforsingle − productusers( 50/yr APY benefit vs $120/yr cost). But 40% cross-buy cohort gets real value (Smart Card 5% grocery, IRA match, loan discounts). Single-product tail is lowest-monetization. Departure may be margin-neutral. Watch: products-per-member Q1-Q2 FY26.
Charge-off 2.80%, up 20bps QoQ, down 50bps YoY. Recent vintages 4.55% cumulative vs 6.27% for 2017 vintage at same point. Gap widened 6 consecutive quarters. Manageable but macro-dependent.
Nubank conditional OCC approval Jan 2026. Revolut applied March 2026. 12-18 month window. Crypto/stablecoin/LPB pivot is correct strategic response.
Large unnamed client departed. Accounts 158M to 129M. Offset by ~10 new clients, Southwest Airlines, U.S. Treasury. Guides ~20% growth ex-client.
+17% YoY shares. But TBV/share +57% -- definitively accretive. Warehouse paydown saves ~$110M annually.
| Dimension | Prior (Atlas) | Updated (GauchoRico) |
|---|---|---|
| Valuation | Fair at $18.12 | Cheap at $16.90 -- 28x FY26, 14x FY28. PEG 0.94. |
| LPB | Promising sub-segment | Proven institutional franchise. $3.6B committed from 3 institutions. |
| Mix shift | Approaching parity | This IS the thesis. FS overtaking Lending = re-rating trigger. |
| SoFi Plus risk | Flagged | Medium risk, likely margin-neutral. Watch products-per-member. |
| Charter moat | Strong | Strong but narrowing. Nubank OCC real. 18-month window. |
| CEO quality | Well-regarded | Very high conviction. $1M buy at current price. Owner-operator. |
This is a fat pitch. At $16.90: 38% revenue growth, 84% gross margins, 31% EBITDA margins, Rule of 40 at 68, owner-operator CEO buying at my price, business transforming from lending to platform -- all at 28x forward earnings with PEG under 1.
This has many hallmarks of my CRM Case Study -- a dominant franchise with consistent growth and expanding margins temporarily mispriced.
LEAPS opportunity: January 2028 calls at $20 strike. 22 months of exposure to 30%+ growth with FS inflection, S&P 500 inclusion, and LPB ramp as catalysts.
Risk management: SoFi Plus paywall creates 1-2 quarter uncertainty. Want Q1 FY26 results before max allocation. Products-per-member is the key signal.
Thesis: Strengthening. Action: Initiating coverage as strong conviction. LEAPS candidate on next dip.
We will see what happens...
GR