Date: 2026-02-22 Persona: Saul Rosenthal (SaulR80683) Thesis Status: Intact — with one genuine concern
Hold. Possibly add on weakness. This was an astonishing quarter — one of the most exceptional I've seen from any company in the public markets. Revenue of $1,658M grew 66% year over year at an 84% EBITDA margin. Rule of 40 score of 150. Free cash flow of $1.31 billion in a single quarter. Really, really crazy numbers!
But I need to be honest: the Q1 FY26 guidance of ~$1,760M implies only 52% YoY growth — the first time below 60%. That is a real deceleration. It doesn't break the thesis, but I'm watching it carefully.
| Q1_FY24 | Q2_FY24 | Q3_FY24 | Q4_FY24 | Q1_FY25 | Q2_FY25 | Q3_FY25 | Q4_FY25 | Q1_FY26G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 | Mar-26G | |
| Revenue ($M) | 678 | 711 | 835 | 999 | 1,159 | 1,259 | 1,405 | 1,658 | 1,760 |
| YoY % | 91% | 75% | 66% | 73% | 71% | 77% | 68% | 66% | ~52%G |
| QoQ % | +18% | +5% | +17% | +20% | +16% | +9% | +12% | +18% | +6%G |
The YoY numbers show clear deceleration from the 91% peak. But look at the sequential trajectory — Q4 added $253M sequentially, the largest quarterly dollar addition in company history. The sequential story is intact and actually re-accelerating (+18% QoQ after a softer Q2 at +9%).
The Q1 guide of $1,760M (+6% QoQ) looks modest — but management explicitly called out seasonal headwinds (Q1 is traditionally softer, fewer calendar days). They've guided conservatively before. Still, 52% YoY is a real number and I can't ignore it.
| Q1_FY24 | Q2_FY24 | Q3_FY24 | Q4_FY24 | Q1_FY25 | Q2_FY25 | Q3_FY25 | Q4_FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA Margin [Non-GAAP] | 71% | 72% | 78% | 77% | 81% | 81% | 82% | 84% |
| Net Margin [GAAP] | 38% | 42% | 52% | 60% | 62% | 61% | 60% | 67% |
| FCF Margin | 57% | 63% | 65% | 70% | 71% | 61% | 75% | 79% |
| SBC % Rev | 13% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 5% |
EBITDA margins expanding quarter after quarter — 58% two years ago, 84% now. The flow-through is ~95% — meaning for every dollar of incremental revenue, 95 cents flows to EBITDA. That is such a preposterous result that I want to say it again. Ninety-five cents of every incremental dollar to EBITDA!
SBC as a percentage of revenue has collapsed from 20%+ in FY23 to under 5% now. This is genuine operating leverage, not just accounting. FCF of $3.95 billion for full year 2025, up 91% year over year.
AppLovin is not SaaS. But that question is irrelevant — what matters is: is this company's growth durable and secular?
The core gaming advertising platform (Axon) is generating conversion rates of ~1% per thousand impressions with clear visibility to 5x improvement. Management said this directly. That's not a hope — the engagement data backs it up. Over 1 billion daily active casual gaming users. That audience skews older and female — not going anywhere.
The e-commerce expansion is the next growth leg:
The moat is real. The MAX mediation platform has 50%+ of publisher UA spend. Competition (Unity, Liftoff, Moloco) has expanded the market rather than taken share — because in an auction, AppLovin captures 5% of any impression it doesn't win. That's elegant economics.
Foroughi is exceptional. He opened the call by directly addressing the short-sellers and market noise — calm, factual, data-backed. "There is a real disconnect between market sentiment and the reality of our business." He's right.
The AI competition narrative (CloudX, the Muddy Waters allegations) has weighed on the stock. Management's response was measured and analytical rather than defensive. The Muddy Waters situation is unresolved — they retained Quinn Emanuel — but CapitalWatch already retracted its allegations.
Promises made this quarter:
Management has consistently delivered on prior promises. The apps divestiture closed Q1 2025 as promised. E-commerce contributed materially in 2025 as promised. Self-service launched in Q4 as promised.
Green flags that confirm the thesis:
Red flags that would concern me:
At the time of this analysis, APP has pulled back ~41% from its highs, driven by AI competition concerns and the CloudX emergence. I don't have a current price, but the Atlas analysis from February 21 noted:
When you're buying $3.95B of free cash flow growing at 91%, a pullback is opportunity, not warning. The business fundamentals have not deteriorated. The stock price has.
This was not just a strong quarter — it was one of the strongest performances in the public markets from any company at this scale. $1.66B revenue. 84% EBITDA margins. $1.31B FCF. Rule of 40 of 150.
The deceleration to ~52% YoY guidance is real and I won't pretend otherwise. Saul doesn't ignore decelerating growth. But this is deceleration from extraordinary to merely exceptional, driven by harder comps rather than business deterioration. The e-commerce expansion is a genuine growth catalyst that's early innings. Conversion headroom from 1% to 5% is enormous.
The stock is held at 6.8% common + 6.4% LEAPS in wsm007's portfolio. I would not sell here. If the stock falls further on market noise while the business keeps compounding, that's an opportunity.
Thesis: Intact. Watch the Q1 actuals vs guide, and e-commerce GA execution.
Best, Saul