Date: 2026-04-06 | Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-2025) | Reported: 2026-03-02 Prior Saul Thesis: None — First look Verdict: This is a blowout quarter from a company I'd never looked at before, and I have to tell you — the numbers are just spectacular. 62% revenue growth, 44.5% EBITDA margins, SBC declining, share count declining, and they beat their initial full-year guidance by 30%!!! That's just an amazing result.
This is what matters. Let me put the table up:
| Q1_FY24 | Q2_FY24 | Q3_FY24 | Q4_FY24 | Q1_FY25 | Q2_FY25 | Q3_FY25 | Q4_FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 73.6 | 80.1 | 92.5 | 100.8 | 108.0 | 131.8 | 150.7 | 163.7 |
| YoY % | 25% | 31% | 41% | 38% | 47% | 64% | 63% | 62% |
| QoQ % | 0.7% | 8.8% | 15.5% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 22.0% | 14.3% | 8.6% |
| Non-GAAP GM % | 67.8% | 65.0% | 69.0% | 72.0% | 77.0% | 70.0% | 69.0% | 74.0% |
| GAAP Op Margin | 7.3% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 20.8% | 32.6% | 31.1% | 30.5% | 39.4% |
| Adj EBITDA ($m) | 13.2 | 15.2 | 24.7 | 33.4 | 44.2 | 50.9 | 58.7 | 72.9 |
| EBITDA Margin % | 17.9% | 19.0% | 26.7% | 33.1% | 40.9% | 38.6% | 39.0% | 44.5% |
| MTMs (M) | — | — | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.77 | 2.93 |
| Originations ($B) | — | — | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| 28-day DPD % | — | — | 1.78% | 1.66% | 1.50% | 2.40% | 2.33% | 1.89% |
| SBC ($m) | 6.1 | 7.7 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 6.9 |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.9 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.5 | 14.4 |
Now look at that table and tell me this company isn't executing at an extraordinary level! Revenue went from 25% YoY growth two years ago to three consecutive quarters of 62-64%!!! That's not just fast growth — that's accelerating growth at scale. Revenue more than doubled in two years, from $73.6m to $163.7m in the December quarter.
And the full year? $554.2 million in revenue, up 60% from $347.1 million. They beat their own initial guidance by $129 million — that's 30% above where they guided at the start of the year!!! I've been doing this a long time, and a 30% full-year beat is just extraordinary.
1. Revenue acceleration at scale is the big story.
This company went from mid-20s% growth in early FY24 to sustaining 60%+ for three straight quarters. That's the kind of acceleration I look for. The FY25 revenue trajectory tells the whole story:
| Quarter | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full Year | $204.8m | $258.9m (+26%) | $347.1m (+34%) | $554.2m (+60%) |
From 26% to 34% to 60%. That's accelerating annual growth! At this level! Really, really impressive.
2. Profitability is remarkable — and expanding.
EBITDA margin went from negative 3.8% in Q3 FY23 to 44.5% in Q4 FY25. That's 50 percentage points of margin expansion in nine quarters. FIFTY! Gross profit is growing FASTER than revenue (68% vs 62% YoY), which means unit economics are improving, not deteriorating.
The GAAP operating margin hit 39.4% — that's not adjusted, that's GAAP! For a company growing revenue at 62%, to also be generating nearly 40% operating margins is just extraordinary.
3. The beat-and-raise pattern is what really gets my attention.
Let me show you what management did with FY25 guidance:
| When Issued | FY25 Revenue Guide | FY25 EBITDA Guide |
|---|---|---|
| Initial (Q4_FY24 ER) | $415-435M | $110-120M |
| Q1 raise | $460-475M (+11%) | $155-165M (+40%) |
| Q2 raise | $505-515M (+8%) | $180-190M (+15%) |
| Q3 raise | $544-547M (+7%) | $215-218M (+16%) |
| Actual | $554.2M | $226.7M |
Four consecutive raises! And still beat the final guide! And the CFO actually said on the call: "Conservative approach to the guide, want to give ourselves the ability to outperform." He's telling you in plain English that they're sandbagging the FY26 numbers too!
4. SBC declining and share count shrinking — I love this.
FY25 SBC was $29.9M, down 20% from $37.3M in FY24. SBC as a percentage of revenue dropped from 10.7% to 5.4%. And the diluted share count is actually declining — from 14.6M to 14.4M. They expanded their buyback authorization to $300M and the CFO said they expect to execute "aggressively." Meanwhile they raised $175M in zero-coupon convertible notes three days after earnings — free money for five years! — and immediately used $70.5M to buy back shares. This is excellent capital allocation.
5. The unit economics flywheel is real.
This is what really makes me sit up and pay attention. Their CashAI underwriting engine creates what I'd call a self-reinforcing cycle: more members generate more data, which makes the AI better at underwriting, which lowers losses, which lets them offer larger advances, which generates more revenue per member, which lets them invest more in marketing, which brings in more members. The CEO said their loan book turns over every 8-10 days — that means they're constantly refining the model with fresh data. That's a genuine competitive advantage.
The numbers prove it out: ExtraCash originations up 50% YoY to $2.2 billion, while the delinquency rate IMPROVED (1.89% — up only 23bps YoY despite much larger loan sizes, and it improved 26bps sequentially). Net monetization rate hit an all-time high of 4.8%. ARPU grew 36% YoY to $224. These are the signs of a flywheel that's spinning faster, not slowing down.
I read the full transcript. Here's what matters:
The CEO (Jason Wilk) led with confidence: "We closed 2025 with another record quarter, marking our third consecutive period of 60%+ year-over-year revenue growth." He then front-ran macro concerns unprompted: "Regardless of the broader macroeconomic environment, we believe we are very well-positioned to continue scaling profitably." That's a CEO who's comfortable with his business position. I like that he wasn't defensive about it — he stated it as fact.
The CFO (Kyle Beilman) was very specific on the numbers and explicitly told analysts the FY26 guide is conservative. He described a medium-term growth algorithm of "mid-teens MTM growth + low double-digit ARPU expansion" as a sustainable baseline "for the next several years." That's actually a fairly modest framework that still produces 25-30% revenue growth — and every leading indicator suggests they'll outperform it, just like they outperformed FY25 guidance by 30%.
Key forward items from the call:
What's NOT in the guidance: Pay-in-4 revenue, grandfathered subscribers migrating from $1 to $3, CashAI v6.0 benefits. These are all potential upside catalysts for H2 2026 and beyond.
This is where it gets interesting. They guided FY26 revenue to $690-710M, which represents "only" 25-28% growth. After growing 60%! Well, should we run away from this company???
Of course not! Let me tell you why:
They beat their initial FY25 guide by 30%. THIRTY PERCENT. If they beat FY26 by even half that (15%), that's $805M in revenue — 45% growth.
The CFO explicitly said they're being conservative to maintain the beat-and-raise pattern.
All the leading indicators — MTM growth (19% and accelerating), origination growth (50%), ARPU growth (36%) — point to continuing momentum.
Multiple new products (Pay-in-4, CashAI v6.0, subscription migration) aren't in the guide.
I'd estimate something like $770-800M actual revenue for FY26, which would be 39-44% growth. That's still very, very fast.
Now, I know some folks will say "but Saul, this isn't SaaS! There's no recurring revenue!" And you know what? They're right — it's not SaaS. But let me tell you why I think the revenue is plenty durable:
First, this is essentially a subscription-like business in practice. People who use ExtraCash tend to keep using it — the MTM (monthly transacting members) metric is essentially measuring recurring engagement, and it's growing 19% YoY. That's like a net retention rate above 100%.
Second, the TAM is enormous and barely penetrated. 2.93 million MTMs out of 185 million addressable Americans is 1.6% penetration. They have 14.1 million total registered members, of which only 21% are actively transacting. There's massive room to grow just by activating the members they already have.
Third, the CashAI moat means competitors can't easily replicate what they do. You need the data, the bank partnerships, the regulatory infrastructure, and the payment network integrations. The CEO described it well: "impossible to replicate without significant user scale."
Fourth, the 8-10 day book turnover is actually an advantage for risk management, not a weakness. They're constantly refreshing their portfolio, so a credit deterioration would show up in weeks, not months. And they can adjust instantly.
Is it as bullet-proof as a SaaS net retention rate of 130%? No. But at 62% revenue growth with 44.5% EBITDA margins and an expanding moat, it doesn't need to be. The business is performing.
I have to mention this because the valuation is just absurdly cheap for what this company is delivering. At the current ~173stockpriceand 2.4 billion market cap:
| Multiple | On FY25 Actual | On FY26 Guide ($700M) | On My FY26 Est ($785M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 4.3x | 3.4x | 3.1x |
| P/EBITDA | 10.6x | 8.1x | ~7x |
| P/E (adj) | ~12x | ~11x | ~9x |
The Rule of 40? How about the Rule of 107! Revenue growth 62% + EBITDA margin 45% = 107. That's nearly three times the threshold.
The PEG ratio on the guided 26% growth is about 0.46. On my estimated 40%+ growth, it's about 0.30. I've seen companies with these kinds of numbers and growth rates trade at 3-4x these multiples.
Now, you know I don't usually make valuation arguments — I follow the growth, the results. But when a company is growing revenue at 60%, expanding margins by 50 percentage points in two years, beating guidance by 30%, buying back shares with zero-coupon debt, and trading at 12x earnings... well, you have to take notice. It's as simple as that!
DOJ/FTC litigation. The CEO is personally named in an ongoing action. The fee structure was reformed in late 2024 (from tips to explicit fees), which likely addresses the core concern. Most likely outcome is a settlement. But it's a headline risk.
Credit cycle. If we enter a severe recession, consumer credit deteriorates. However, the 8-10 day book duration and small dollar amounts ($214 average) provide significant insulation. These aren't mortgages or auto loans.
Growth deceleration. The guided 25-28% YoY growth for FY26 IS a deceleration from 60%. Even if they beat (and I expect them to), we may be looking at 40-45% growth, not 60%+. That's still excellent, but the stock benefited from the acceleration narrative.
Consumer spending environment. If things get really bad, fewer people use ExtraCash. But the CEO argued — and I think correctly — that recessions actually INCREASE demand for short-term liquidity products.
I've never looked at this company before, and I came in skeptical. A $2.4 billion market cap neobank that went public through a SPAC? In consumer lending? That's three red flags right there!
But the numbers don't lie. Revenue growing 60%, margins expanding from negative to 45%, management delivering on every promise, unit economics improving at scale, SBC declining in absolute dollars, shares being retired, and a product roadmap with multiple catalysts not yet contributing. The CEO survived a 98% stock drawdown from the SPAC era and built this into a $2.4 billion company. That tells you something about resilience.
The CashAI underwriting engine is a genuine moat — it's not just a buzzword. It compounds with scale in a way that's very similar to what attracted me to other AI-native platforms. And at 1.6% TAM penetration, the runway is massive.
Thesis status: Strengthening — and this is from a standing start.
If Q1 delivers on these, this becomes a very high-conviction name.
This is a company I want to own. I'd start a position and add on the Q1 FY26 earnings if they confirm the trajectory. At this valuation, with this growth rate, and this execution track record, the risk/reward is exceptional.
Best, Saul