Date: 2026-03-31 Quarter: Q4_FY25 (fiscal Q4, ending Dec-2025) Price: ~$17.80 (Mar-25-2026) | Down ~32% YTD, ~45% from Nov-2025 peak of 32.50Marketcap: 24B | Shares: 1,346M diluted | TBV/share: $7.01 | P/TBV: ~2.5x TTM adj net revenue: $3.591B | FY26 guide: $4.655B (+30%) FY26 adj EPS guide: $0.60 | Forward P/E: ~30x
This was, quite simply, a blowout quarter. Really, really impressive numbers. SoFi just posted its first-ever billion-dollar quarter -- $1.013 billion in adjusted net revenue, up 37% year over year -- and did it while expanding every single margin metric to all-time highs. EBITDA margin hit 31.4%. Gross margin 84.2%. GAAP operating margin 18.1%, up nearly 10 points from a year ago. A million new members in a single quarter! 20 million products! A Rule of 40 score of 68%!
Let me be clear: I'm not typically a fintech or bank investor. That's not where I've made my money. But the world has changed, and when I see a company growing revenue at 37% at this scale, with margins expanding, with a business mix shifting rapidly toward capital-light fee revenue, and with management hitting or beating every target they set -- well, I follow the money, the results. And the results here are exceptional.
The stock is down 32% from year-end. The market is focused on the $3.2 billion in equity raises and 17% share dilution. I understand the concern -- I don't love dilution. But tangible book value per share rose 57% to $7.01 despite the dilution. That tells you the raise was accretive. The CEO just bought a million dollars of stock at 17.50−18.20. That's not the action of a man worried about his company.
Thesis: Strengthening. This is a new coverage initiation for me. I'm impressed.
| Quarter | Adj Net Rev | YoY% | QoQ% | QoQ $ Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1_FY24 | $580.6m | +9.5% | -- | -- |
| Q2_FY24 | $597.0m | +12.6% | +2.8% | +$16.4m |
| Q3_FY24 | $689.4m | +30.0% | +15.5% | +$92.4m |
| Q4_FY24 | $739.1m | +24.4% | +7.2% | +$49.7m |
| Q1_FY25 | $770.7m | +32.7% | +4.3% | +$31.6m |
| Q2_FY25 | $858.2m | +43.7% | +11.4% | +$87.5m |
| Q3_FY25 | $949.6m | +37.7% | +10.7% | +$91.4m |
| Q4_FY25 | $1,012.8m | +37.0% | +6.7% | +$63.2m |
Look at that YoY trajectory! From +9.5% and +12.6% in early FY24 to sustained high-30s growth through FY25. That's reacceleration at scale -- this company went from $580 million to over a billion in quarterly revenue in just two years, and the growth rate INCREASED.
Q4 sequential growth of 6.7% looks softer, but Q4 is typically their strongest absolute quarter and Q3 had an unusually large sequential add. The YoY rate actually ticked up from Q3's 37.7% to 39.6% on a GAAP basis. No deceleration problem here.
| Metric | FY24 | FY25 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GAAP Revenue | $2,675m | $3,613m | +35.1% |
| Adj Net Revenue | $2,606m | $3,591m | +37.8% |
| Adj EBITDA | $666m | $1,054m | +58.2% |
| Adj EBITDA Margin | ~25.6% | 29.3% | +3.7pp |
| GAAP Net Income | $499m* | $481m | -3.4% |
| Adj Net Income | $227m | $481m | +112% |
| Adj EPS | $0.15 | $0.39 | +160% |
*FY24 GAAP net income inflated by $271.5M one-time deferred tax asset. Adjusted comparison is the right one: +112%.
| Margin | Q4_FY24 | Q1_FY25 | Q2_FY25 | Q3_FY25 | Q4_FY25 | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross [GAAP] | 82.5% | 82.4% | 82.4% | 83.2% | 84.2% | Expanding (ATH) |
| EBITDA [Non-GAAP] | 26.8% | 27.2% | 29.1% | 28.8% | 31.4% | Expanding (ATH) |
| Op Margin [GAAP] | 8.2% | -- | -- | -- | 18.1% | +9.9pp YoY |
| Net [Non-GAAP] | 8.3% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 17.1% | Expanding (ATH) |
God, this is important! Every single margin metric expanded. Gross margins above 84%. EBITDA margins above 31% and heading toward their 34% FY26 target. Non-GAAP net margins nearly doubled from 9.2% to 17.1% through the year. This is a company demonstrating serious operating leverage.
Incremental EBITDA margin of 44% in Q4 -- meaning for every new dollar of revenue, 44 cents dropped to EBITDA. That's how you build a compounding machine.
This is the single most important development in the quarter, and I'm not sure the market fully appreciates it.
Financial Services: $456.7M, +78% YoY, 51% contribution margin. Lending (adjusted): $486.5M, +15% YoY, 54% contribution margin.
Do you see what's happening??? Financial Services is growing 5x faster than Lending and is now within $30 million of overtaking it. By Q1 or Q2 of FY26, Financial Services will be the largest segment. That changes EVERYTHING about how you should value this company.
Financial Services revenue has no credit risk. It's fee-based. It's capital-light. It includes interchange, brokerage fees, referral revenue, and the Loan Platform Business. It should command a platform multiple, not a bank multiple. When fee revenue crosses 50% of total, SoFi stops being a "bank" in valuation terms -- it becomes a financial platform that happens to have a bank charter. That's a re-rating trigger.
Management is guiding FS to grow 40%+ in FY26. I believe them.
LPB generated 193.7MinQ4, growing2.9xYoY, annualizingat 775M. This is fee-only revenue from originating personal loans for third-party institutional buyers. Zero credit risk. Zero balance sheet usage. Pure marketplace economics.
And then on March 26 -- just five days ago -- SoFi announced 3.6billioninnewcommittedpersonalloandeliveryfromthreeindependentinstitutionalpartners : aleadingglobalbank(1B+), a financial services/insurance group ($600M over 12 months), and a top-5 global private asset manager (up to $2B over 2 years).
$3.6 billion committed against a $775 million current run rate. That's 4.6x the annual run rate!!! And these aren't retail customers signing up for a free trial -- these are sophisticated institutional capital allocators who did their own due diligence and committed real money. Three different sectors (bank, insurer, asset manager) committing independently = diversified, validated demand.
This moves LPB from "interesting sub-segment" to "institutional franchise." When this ramps, it changes the entire company's capital efficiency.
A million new members in one quarter. Let me say that again: ONE MILLION new members in a single quarter. Total: 13.7 million, +35% YoY. Products: 20.2 million, +37% YoY.
Cross-buy rate: 40% of new products opened by existing members, up 7 percentage points YoY. This is the flywheel working. Members join for one product, discover others, and deepen their relationship. Revenue per product: $104 annualized, up 29% YoY (record).
The one-stop-shop strategy is working exactly as designed. Members are worth more each quarter.
Now, will the SoFi Plus paywall (going live March 31) cause some member attrition? Probably. The value math is unfavorable for single-product deposit-only users (120/yearsubscriptionvs 50/year APY benefit on $20K). But -- and this is key -- the 40% cross-buy rate means multi-product users get substantial value from Plus (2% IRA match, 5% grocery cashback via Smart Card, loan rate discounts). The single-product deposit-only tail is the lowest-monetization segment. If they leave, revenue per member likely improves.
I'll be watching products-per-member and revenue-per-member in Q1 and Q2 FY26 very closely. If those metrics hold or improve while raw member adds dip slightly, that's actually healthy churn composition. If products-per-member DECLINES, that's a real problem.
FY26: ~4.655Badjnetrevenue(+301.6B EBITDA (34% margin), ~$825M adj net income (18% margin), $0.60 adj EPS.
Q1 FY26: ~$1.04B (+35% YoY), $300M EBITDA (29% margin), $0.12 EPS (2x YoY).
Medium-term (2025-2028): Revenue CAGR >=30%. EPS CAGR 38-42%.
Management just beat their FY25 guide on every metric. They've earned credibility. The FY26 guide implies acceleration from Q4's pace on a Q1 basis ($1.04B vs the $770.7M Q1 FY25 = +35%). And the medium-term outlook of 30%+ revenue CAGR and 38-42% EPS CAGR through 2028 is management putting their reputation on the line.
At 0.60FY26EPS, today′spriceof 17.80 is a 30x forward P/E. If they hit $1.20 by FY28 (which the 38-42% EPS CAGR implies), that's a 15x P/E on today's price two years out. For a company growing this fast? That's compelling.
This is not a company in financial distress. This is a company with massive optionality.
Anthony Noto was enthusiastic but earned it. "Couldn't be more excited" appeared three times, "just getting started" three times, "record" fifteen-plus times. Normally that much self-congratulation makes me nervous, but every single claim was backed by a specific number. This wasn't salesman-ish -- it was a CEO who delivered the best quarter in his company's history and was legitimately proud.
Key quotes that mattered:
"Despite the unprecedented growth, we still have massive addressable markets across our existing businesses and huge opportunities for growth in newer areas like crypto, AI and business banking."
"I really want us to get that escape velocity where the amount that we spend becomes more and more efficient."
"The data continues to support our 7% to 8% net cumulative loss assumption for personal loans in line with our underwriting tolerance, although we continue to trend below these levels."
That last one from the CFO is critical. Credit quality is the bear case, and Lapointe addressed it with specific vintage data showing newer cohorts performing better than the 2017 reference cohort, with the gap widening each of the past 6 quarters. That's the kind of data-backed response I want to hear.
First Saul analysis of SOFI. Priors based on Atlas baseline.
| Metric | Expected | Actual | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 adj net revenue | ~$951.7M (implied guide) | $1,012.8M | +6.4% beat |
| EBITDA | ~$285M (~30% margin) | $317.6M (31.4% margin) | Beat + margin expansion |
| FS segment revenue | ~$400M | $456.7M (+78% YoY) | Accelerating faster than Lending |
| LPB revenue | ~$170M | $193.7M (2.9x YoY) | Scaling rapidly |
| Members added Q4 | ~850K | 1,004K | Record -- first 1M quarter |
| Deposits | ~$36B | $37.5B | Strong |
| FY26 guidance | $4.3-4.5B (consensus) | $4.655B / $0.60 EPS | Above high end |
Delta: The magnitude of beat was the surprise. Revenue, EBITDA, members, and guidance all came in meaningfully above expectations.
SoFi Plus paywall (IMMEDIATE -- live March 31). Watch products-per-member in Q1/Q2. Stable or improving = healthy pruning. Declining = real problem.
Credit cycle. Personal loan charge-off at 2.80% is manageable today. If unemployment rises above 5%, this book faces stress. Lending is still ~49% of revenue.
Dilution. 17% share growth in FY25. Watch for additional capital raises as balance sheet grows.
Charter moat narrowing. Nubank conditional OCC approval (Jan 2026). Revolut applied (Mar 2026). SoFi's first-mover advantage has a 12-18 month runway before it narrows materially.
Tech execution. Blind reviews flag engineering culture issues. For a bank processing $37.5B in deposits, a security breach would be catastrophic.
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Price | ~$17.80 | Down 32% YTD |
| Forward P/E (FY26) | ~30x ($0.60) | Reasonable for 30%+ grower |
| Forward P/E (FY28E) | ~15x ($1.20E) | Compelling if CAGR delivers |
| P/TBV | ~2.5x | vs TBV growing 57% YoY |
| EV/TTM Rev | ~5.8x | Fair |
| Rule of 40 | 68% | Elite |
CEO insider buy: $1M at 17.50−18.20 (March 2, 2026). Largest individual shareholder with 11.6M+ shares.
New coverage -- initiating at Strengthening thesis status.
SoFi is transforming from a rate-sensitive lender into a diversified financial platform. Financial Services at +78% YoY is about to overtake Lending. The LPB marketplace at ~$775M annualized (now backed by $3.6B in institutional commitments) is creating capital-light economics within a bank structure. Fee-based revenue at 44% of total and growing 53% YoY is rapidly changing the revenue mix.
At ~$17.80, the stock is priced as if something is wrong. Nothing is wrong.
Action: Watchlist -- strongly considering initiating. I want one clean Q1 FY26 quarter confirming: (a) SoFi Plus paywall doesn't crater products-per-member, (b) revenue guide is tracking, (c) credit quality remains stable. If Q1 is clean, I'd add at anything near current levels.
Atlas scored 4/5 conviction, calling this a "genuine inflection." I agree with Atlas on the key structural points: the FS/Lending segment crossover, the LPB franchise validation, and the fortress balance sheet. Where I diverge slightly: Atlas was willing to buy on a pullback to P/TBV 2.0-2.2x. I want to see Q1 FY26 first, regardless of price. The SoFi Plus paywall going live literally tomorrow adds execution risk that wasn't present when Atlas wrote in February. One quarter of data removes that uncertainty.
Best, Saul