Date: 2026-04-06 Quarter: Q4 FY26 (ended January 31, 2026) Price: ~31.58|* * MarketCap : ** 18.3B | EV: ~$17.1B Position: None currently. Was long 5% in 2024.
Samsara is the best risk/reward in my investable universe right now. Textbook bullish divergence: revenue YoY optically decelerating while every leading indicator is accelerating — net new ARR (+28% YoY), $100K+ customer ARR (+37%), $1M+ ARR (+56%), emerging products (8%→23% of ACV in three quarters). At 10.3x run-rate P/S with 78% gross margins, 21% non-GAAP operating margin, and a 42.3 Rule of 40 score, the market is pricing a decelerating 28% grower when the underlying demand is re-accelerating. This mispricing resolves in FY27 as bookings flow through to revenue.
This is how I read trajectory. Compare each quarter to the same quarter in prior years.
| FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Apr) | 16.9% | 13.4% | 9.5% | 1.6% | 6.0% | Recovering from FY25 anomaly |
| Q2 (Jul) | 15.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | Stable at 7% |
| Q3 (Oct) | 12.7% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | Mild deceleration |
| Q4 (Jan) | 10.5% | 9.9% | 16.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | Normalising post-FY24 spike |
Reading this grid: Q4 FY26 at 6.8% QoQ looks "slow" vs Q4 FY24's 16.3%, but that Q4 was an anomaly (massive Q4 seasonal flush). Against the non-anomalous Q4s (FY22: 10.5%, FY23: 9.9%), yes, there's deceleration. But at $444M/quarter, 6.8% QoQ annualises to 30% growth. And critically, Q4 QoQ accelerated sequentially within FY26 (Q3: 6.3% → Q4: 6.8%). That's the first intra-year Q3→Q4 acceleration since FY24.
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 62.6% | 43.3% | 37.4% | 30.7% |
| Q2 | 52.0% | 42.9% | 36.8% | 30.5% |
| Q3 | 49.2% | 39.9% | 35.6% | 29.2% |
| Q4 | 48.3% | 48.1% | 25.2% | 28.4% |
The Q4 rebound matters. Q4 FY25's 25.2% was a tough-comp anomaly (lapping Q4 FY24's +48.1%). Q4 FY26 at 28.4% is a 3.2pp improvement. The trough is behind.
| FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | +12.7 | +16.8 | +17.7 | +4.4 | +20.9 |
| Q2 | +13.3 | +10.9 | +15.0 | +19.3 | +24.6 |
| Q3 | +12.8 | +16.3 | +18.2 | +22.0 | +24.5 |
| Q4 | +12.0 | +16.8 | +38.8 | +24.0 | +28.3 |
| Full Year | +50.8 | +60.8 | +89.7 | +69.7 | +98.3 |
**FY26 added 98.3MmoreincrementalrevenuethanFY25. * *Theincrementalmachineisscaling.Q4′s+28.3M was the highest non-anomalous Q4 add in history.
This is the alpha pattern. Revenue YoY is the lagging number. Net new ARR is the truth.
| Metric | Q1_FY26 | Q2_FY26 | Q3_FY26 | Q4_FY26 | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY % | 30.7% | 30.5% | 29.2% | 28.4% | → Decelerating |
| ARR YoY % | 30.6% | 29.8% | 29.4% | 29.6% | → Inflecting |
| Net New ARR YoY % | -1.4% | +19.3% | +23.5% | +28.1% | → Accelerating (3Q) |
| $100K+ Customer ARR YoY % | — | — | — | +37% | → Accelerating (2Q) |
| $1M+ Customer ARR YoY % | — | — | — | +56% | → Accelerating (3Q) |
| Emerging Product ACV Mix | — | 8% | 20% | 23% | → Expanding rapidly |
Three leading indicators accelerating for 3 consecutive quarters. Per my framework, when 2+ leading indicators diverge from revenue for 2+ quarters, the market is underpricing future growth. IOT has five indicators diverging for three quarters. That's the strongest divergence signal I've seen since AXON in mid-2023 (RPO growing 61% vs revenue 34%).
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 49.2 | 61.1 | 74.0 | 73.0 | Flat (seasonal trough) |
| Q2 | 55.6 | 73.8 | 88.0 | 105.0 | Accelerating |
| Q3 | 60.9 | 72.7 | 85.0 | 105.0 | Accelerating |
| Q4 | 71.4 | 99.3 | 113.0 | 144.8 | Record. +28% YoY |
| Full Year | 237.1 | 306.9 | 360.0 | 427.8 | +19% YoY |
Q4 FY26 net new ARR of $144.8M is the highest quarter ever, and the YoY growth of +28% is the highest in 8 quarters. This is not noise. This is demand acceleration at $1.9B scale.
| Q1_FY25 | Q2_FY25 | Q3_FY25 | Q4_FY25 | Q1_FY26 | Q2_FY26 | Q3_FY26 | Q4_FY26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | 1,953 | 2,120 | 2,292 | 2,484 | 2,638 | 2,771 | 2,990 | 3,194 |
| Net Adds | 105 | 167 | 172 | 192 | 154 | 133 | 219 | 204 |
| Avg ARR ($K) | 336 | 337 | 336 | 340 | 338 | 349 | 350 | 362 |
| YoY Growth | 41.6% | 39.7% | 37.8% | 34.4% | 35.2% | 30.6% | 30.5% | 28.6% |
ARPU expansion: Average ARR per $100K+ customer grew from $340K to $362K (+6.5% YoY). This is multiproduct adoption doing its work. 96% of these customers use 2+ products, 69% use 3+. The compounding effect of a $362K average with 37% ARR growth in this cohort is a powerful revenue engine.
The auto-surfaced learning about multi-product ACV mix is directly applicable:
| Metric | Q2_FY26 | Q3_FY26 | Q4_FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging products % of net new ACV | 8% | 20% | 23% |
| $100K+ transactions with emerging product | — | 34 | 58 |
| Top 10 deals with emerging product | — | 8 of 10 | 8 of 10 |
| Top 10 deals with 3+ products | — | — | 8 of 10 |
| Top 10 deals with 4+ products | — | — | 6 of 10 |
This is a platform phase transition. When emerging products jump from 8% to 23% of net new ACV in three quarters, and the largest deals routinely include 3-4+ products, the company has crossed from "selling products" to "selling a platform." This is the CRWD 5+ module pattern all over again — the stickiest, highest-value customers are adopting fastest, which changes the NRR ceiling, the expansion motion, and the competitive moat depth. The $100M+ emerging product ARR milestone confirms this is revenue at scale, not a pilot.
| Metric | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY26 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-GAAP GM % | 75% | 77.5% | 78% | 77.3% |
| Non-GAAP OpM % | -0.5% | 8.7% | 17.4% | 20.7% |
| GAAP OpM % | -34.1% | -15.7% | -3.2% | +2.0% |
| FCF Margin % | 2.9% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 13.9% |
| SBC / Revenue % | 25.4% | 22.3% | 19.5% | 17.8% |
| Rule of 40 | ~38 | ~34 | 42.3 | 42.3 |
The operating margin expansion is extraordinary. Non-GAAP OpM went from -0.5% (FY24) to 17.4% (FY26) — an 18pp improvement in two years while maintaining 30% growth. Q4 FY26 at 20.7% is an all-time high. GAAP operating income turned positive for the first time ever in Q3 FY26 and stayed positive in Q4 (+$9.0M). First full-year GAAP profitability guided for FY27.
SBC compression is real. From 25.4% of revenue (FY24) to 17.8% (Q4 FY26). Absolute SBC roughly flat at ~$78M/quarter while revenue scales. This is exactly what you want to see — not SBC cuts, but SBC-per-dollar-of-revenue declining as the business outgrows the equity compensation burden. FY27 guided below 20%.
FCF generation doubling. FY26 FCF of $207M (13% margin) vs FY25's $112M (9% margin). FY26 OCF $236M. The cash machine is running. With $1.24B net cash and no debt, the balance sheet is a fortress.
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| P/S (run-rate) | 10.3x | Fair. Below SaaS median for 28%+ grower with 78% GM |
| EV/S (run-rate) | 9.6x | Attractive. $1.24B net cash = meaningful EV discount |
| P/FCF (run-rate) | 74x | Rich on trailing, but FCF inflecting rapidly |
| P/E Non-GAAP (run-rate) | 43x | Fair for 28% grower with margin expansion |
| PEG (P/S / growth) | 0.36 | Cheap. Below 0.5 = undervalued for growth |
| Rule of 40 | 42.3 | Passes. Up from ~34 a year ago |
Run-rate math:
At $31.58, IOT trades at 10.3x run-rate P/S. For context:
IOT is priced at a 40-50% discount to peers with equivalent growth and margins. The market discounts IOT for: (1) hardware component, (2) perceived deceleration, (3) lower awareness vs pure software SaaS names. But the hardware is the moat — it generates the proprietary data (25T+ data points) that powers the AI platform and creates switching costs no pure-software competitor can replicate.
| Guided | Implied (with 5% beat) | Revenue Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY27 | $454-456M | ~$478M | +30% YoY |
| FY27 | $1,965-1,975M | ~$2,070M | +28% YoY |
Management guides conservatively — FY26 initial guide was $1,528M, actual was 1, 619M(+5.92.07B in revenue, which would mean the "21-22% guided growth" is actually 28% delivered growth. The market will re-price when Q1 FY27 beats in June.
| Metric | Samsara (IOT) | Motive (MTVE, pre-IPO) | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARR | $1.89B | $501M | 3.8x |
| $100K+ Customers | 3,194 | 494 | 6.5x |
| Growth (YoY) | 30% | 28% | ~Even |
| NRR | ~115% | ~110%+ | Samsara |
| Multi-product (2+) | 96% of $100K+ | 89% of core | Samsara |
| G2 Score | 97.75 | 92.25 | Samsara |
Motive's IPO validates the market. But Samsara is 3.8x the size and dominates the enterprise segment (6.5x the $100K+ customer base). Motive appeals to smaller fleets and price-sensitive buyers. That's fine — it's a $100B+ TAM with room for both. If anything, Motive going public forces analyst coverage of the connected operations category, creating a rising-tide effect for IOT.
Litigation scorecard: Samsara won $30.3M in arbitration (false advertising claims). Motive cleared on patent infringement by ITC. Net: Samsara wins on substance, the IP fight is over. Move on.
25+ trillion data points annually. Hundreds of millions of road miles daily. Cross-customer network effects (predictive maintenance across make/model/year, safety benchmarking, weather-risk correlation). This data cannot be replicated by a new entrant. Period. It took a decade and billions in hardware deployments to build it. The AI agent layer (Safety Coach, maintenance, compliance, dispatching) runs on this data. The moat widens with every device deployed.
Sanjit Biswas (CEO, co-founder): Confident, specific, data-driven. Uses concrete numbers in every answer. The three-phase framework (Connect → Analyze → Automate) is clear and durable. No defensive language. No "diversification" hedging. Strong.
Dominic Phillips (CFO): Conservative guide-and-beat discipline. FY26 guide raised 3x, each time meaningful. Called out enterprise deal variability proactively — this is expectation management, not a warning. Classic underpromise/overdeliver.
Red flag: CPO Kieran Saker retired. Co-founder John Bicket (CTO) and SVP Johan Land absorb product/engineering. Founder taking over product is actually net positive — shows the product vision comes from the top. Not concerned.
Employee sentiment: Glassdoor at 4.0/5, down modestly. Atlas flagged "mass exodus" language on Blind. This is the one concern worth monitoring. For an AI/hardware company, retaining top talent matters. But the data moat is the competitive advantage, not individual engineers, and the company is profitable and growing — that's attractive to talent.
5/5 boxes checked. This is the strongest alpha pattern I've seen in this name.
| Dimension | Prior (Apr 2024) | Updated (Apr 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Growth trajectory | Strong but decelerating (43%→37% YoY) | Leading indicators re-accelerating at scale |
| Profitability | Just turned FCF positive | GAAP profitable. 21% non-GAAP OpM. FCF doubling annually |
| Platform | Promising (headcount growth → S&M expansion) | Proven. 96% multi-product. Emerging products at >$100M ARR |
| Data moat | Theoretical | 25T+ data points. AI agents launching on proprietary data |
| Competitive | Samsara vs Motive duopoly forming | Confirmed. 3.8x lead cemented. Motive IPO validates market |
| Valuation | Fair at 5% position | Cheap. 10.3x P/S for this quality. Should be 13-15x |
IOT is a high-conviction buy at $31.58.
The divergence between lagging revenue metrics and accelerating leading indicators is the widest I've seen in this name. The platform transition is confirmed (emerging products at 23% ACV mix). The profitability inflection is ahead of schedule. The valuation is 40-50% below comparable SaaS peers. Management is executing flawlessly with a conservative guide-and-beat cadence.
Target position: 8-10%. Building over next 2-3 weeks. Will add aggressively on any tariff-related or macro-driven pullback below $28.
Catalysts within 90 days: Q1 FY27 earnings (June), Investor Day (June), AI agent launch (summer).
Sell triggers: Two consecutive quarters of net new ARR deceleration. NRR disclosed below 110%. CPO transition disrupts product velocity. Glassdoor below 3.5.
→ This is the best growth-at-a-reasonable-price opportunity in my universe.
-wsm
Sources: Scout brief (2026-04-02), Q4 FY26 PR (SEC EDGAR 8-K), Q4 FY26 transcript (Motley Fool), Q4 FY26 shareholder letter, Motive S-1 (Dec 2025), web research (April 2026). Atlas baseline analysis reviewed and incorporated.