Date: 2026-04-06 Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec 2025) | Call: February 26, 2026 Price: 33.53|MarketCap: 5.3B | EV: ~$5.4B
Record quarter. Revenue re-accelerating in absolute dollars. Thesis constructive — but this is new territory for me.
I haven't written about TGTX before, so applying my framework fresh. Q4 FY25 delivered 192.6M(+78176M from the raised FY guide. More importantly, incremental revenue dollars expanded to $30.9M — an all-time high — breaking a three-quarter QoQ deceleration trend. Record new patient enrollments. FY26 guide of $888M midpoint implies +44% growth, and management has beaten initial guidance by 8-18% for two consecutive years. The math says actual FY26 could land $960-975M.
Gross margin compression to 80.2% (8 consecutive quarters of decline from 91.5%) would normally make me very uncomfortable. But context matters: this is manufacturing scale-up COGS, not competitive pricing erosion. Op margin expanded from 12.7% (FY24) to 20.0% (FY25) — operating leverage is real. Rule of 40 at 104. This is not a broken margin story; it's a biotech investing in manufacturing capacity while revenue doubles.
The single-product concentration (96% BRIUMVI) is the structural risk that caps conviction. At <6% of the anti-CD20 infusion TAM, this is early launch — but if fenebrutinib (oral) gets approved 2028-2029, the ceiling gets lower.
-> Constructive. Not yet a position — need to see Q1 FY26 execution and SC BRIUMVI data trajectory before committing capital.
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | +7700% | +44.3% | +11.7% | Normalising post-launch |
| Q2 | +106.4% | +15.7% | +16.7% | Stable -> slight acceleration |
| Q3 | +929.8% | +14.1% | +14.6% | Stable |
| Q4 | -73.5%* | +29.0% | +19.1% | Re-acceleration from Q3 |
*Q4 FY23 distorted by Q3 FY23 $157M license payment drop-off.
Key insight: Q4 FY25 QoQ of +19.1% broke a three-quarter sequential deceleration (Q1 +11.7% -> Q2 +16.7% -> Q3 +14.6% -> Q4 +19.1%). That's bullish. But more telling is the incremental dollar adds:
| Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incremental Rev ($m) | +$12.7 | +$20.2 | +$20.6 | +$30.9 |
$30.9M sequential add on a $161.7M base. The launch curve is steepening, not flattening. Nuf said.
| | Q1_FY24 | Q2_FY24 | Q3_FY24 | Q4_FY24 | Q1_FY25 | Q2_FY25 | Q3_FY25 | Q4_FY25 | | | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Revenue ($m) | 63.5 | 73.5 | 83.9 | 108.2 | 120.9 | 141.1 | 161.7 | 192.6 | | QoQ % | +44.3% | +15.7% | +14.1% | +29.0% | +11.7% | +16.7% | +14.6% | +19.1% | | YoY % | +714% | +357% | -49%* | +146% | +90.4% | +92.0% | +92.7% | +78.0% | | BRIUMVI US ($m) | -- | -- | -- | -- | ~115 | ~135 | 152.9 | 182.7 | | Gross Margin % | 91.5% | 88.7% | 88.9% | 85.8% | 87.2% | 86.6% | 82.6% | 80.2% | | Op Margin % | -14.6% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 27.6% | 7.1% | 24.7% | 18.2% | 26.2% | | Op Income (m)|−9.3|8.8|12.4|29.9|8.6|34.8|29.4|50.5||NetIncome(m) | -10.7 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 23.3 | 5.1 | 28.2 | 390.9** | 23.0 | | EPS | -$0.07 | $0.04 | $0.02 | $0.16 | $0.03 | $0.17 | $2.43** | 0.14||SBC(m) | 9.3 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 15.0 | 16.4 | 17.7 | 15.6 |
*Q3 FY24 YoY distorted by $157M license payment in Q3 FY23 base. **Q3 FY25 NI includes 339.8Mnon − recurringDTAvaluationallowancerelease.AdjNI 51M, adj EPS ~$0.32.
| FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY | FY2026 Guide | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 329.0 | 616.3 | +87.3% | $887.5M (mid) |
| BRIUMVI US ($m) | 309.5 | 594.1 | +91.9% | $837.5M (mid) |
| Gross Margin % | 88.3% | 83.6% | -4.7pp | -- |
| Op Income ($m) | 41.9 | 123.3 | +194% | -- |
| Op Margin % | 12.7% | 20.0% | +7.3pp | -- |
| Adj Net Income ($m) | 23.4 | ~107.4 | +359% | -- |
| SBC ($m) | 42.5 | 64.7 | +52% | ~$65M |
| SBC % Revenue | 12.9% | 10.5% | -2.4pp | ~7.3% |
This is the most important signal in the quarter. After three quarters of QoQ deceleration (29% -> 12% -> 17% -> 15%), Q4 snapped back to +19.1%. In my framework, two consecutive quarters of deceleration is a sell signal — and Q2 to Q3 looked like it was heading there. Q4 broke the pattern.
The absolute dollar growth is even more compelling: $30.9M sequential add vs $20.6M in Q3. Record new patient enrollments. Field force expanding. The commercial execution is textbook.
YoY is decelerating — 92.7% -> 78.0% — but this is pure law of large numbers, not demand deterioration. You don't add $30.9M in a quarter with weakening demand.
| Q1_FY24 | Q2_FY24 | Q3_FY24 | Q4_FY24 | Q1_FY25 | Q2_FY25 | Q3_FY25 | Q4_FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM % | 91.5% | 88.7% | 88.9% | 85.8% | 87.2% | 86.6% | 82.6% | 80.2% |
| COGS ($m) | 5.4 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 15.4 | 15.5 | 18.9 | 28.1 | 38.1 |
| COGS YoY | -- | -- | -- | -- | +187% | +128% | +202% | +148% |
COGS growing 148-202% YoY vs revenue +78-93%. That's the driver. Atlas flags this as 8 consecutive quarters of compression, and they're right. But I disagree with treating this like SaaS GM erosion — this is manufacturing capacity scaling ahead of revenue. TGTX is building dedicated SC manufacturing lines at ~$100M FY26 investment. GM will likely trough at 76-78% before recovering post-buildout in 2027.
The critical question: is op margin expanding despite GM compression? Yes — from 12.7% FY24 to 20.0% FY25. SG&A leverage is real: R&D + SG&A ex-SBC guided +6.7% ($328M -> $350M) vs revenue growing 44%. That's exceptional discipline.
| Year | Initial Guide | Actual | Beat vs Initial |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | ~$280M | $329M | +17.5% |
| FY25 | ~$565M | $616M | +9.0% |
| FY26 | $888M (mid) | ? | If 8-10% -> $960-975M |
Management consistently de-risks the guide. Q1 FY26 guide of $190-200M total is roughly flat to Q4's $192.6M — which is classic Q1 conservative setup. If FY26 actual hits 960M, run − rateexitsat 260M/quarter in Q4 FY26, implying ~$1.04B FY27 run-rate. That's a billion-dollar revenue company two years from now trading at 5.5x.
Management said "we will not hesitate to add leverage to reduce our share count" on the Q4 call. Three weeks later:
Shares outstanding declining: 175.0M (Q4 FY24) -> 159.3M (Q4 FY25) -> ~158M (current est.) = -9.6% in 12 months. That's accretive buyback, not dilutive growth. For a 399-person biotech, this is sophisticated capital allocation.
Net debt position is modest: ~110Mnetdebtpost − refi(750M gross - ~$640M cash) vs $888M FY26 guided revenue. Leverage ratio <0.2x. Plenty of capacity.
Roche's oral BTK inhibitor hit all 3 Phase III endpoints (FENhance 1/2 in RMS, FENtrepid in PPMS). An oral pill matching infusion-class efficacy would structurally reshape the anti-CD20 market. If approved 2028-2029, oral convenience vs. IV infusion creates a substitution risk.
But context:
This is a 2-3 year competitive overhang, not a near-term thesis-breaker. But it does cap the multiple.
Phase III ~75% enrolled. Pivotal data expected year-end 2026 / Q1 2027. If positive:
This is the most important catalyst for the thesis. Positive SC data + ENHANCE data (mid-2026) = formulation expansion that structurally transforms the growth ceiling.
| FY24 | FY25 | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBC ($m) | 42.5 | 64.7 | +52% |
| SBC % Rev | 12.9% | 10.5% | Improving |
| Diluted Shares (Q4, M) | 175.0 | 159.3 | -9.0% (buybacks) |
| Shares Repurchased | -- | 3.175M @ $28.71 | $91.2M total |
SBC growing +52% but SBC % of revenue declining from 12.9% to 10.5%. Share count declining 9% YoY due to buybacks — rare for a biotech this early in commercialisation. At ~$65M annual SBC vs $91M buybacks, the company is more than offsetting dilution with repurchases. Bullish signal.
| Metric | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Stock price | $33.53 | April 2, 2026 |
| Market cap | ~$5.30B | |
| EV | ~$5.41B | 750Mdebt− 640M cash |
| Run-rate revenue (Q4x4) | $770M | |
| FY26 guide (mid) | $888M | |
| FY26 if 9% beat | $968M | Historical pattern |
| EV/Run-Rate Rev | 7.0x | |
| EV/FY26 Guide | 6.1x | |
| EV/FY26 Beat Est | 5.6x | |
| Rule of 40 (Q4) | 104 | 78% YoY + 26.2% op margin |
| EV/TTM Op Income | 43.9x | $123.3M FY25 |
Is 6x forward revenue expensive for 44% guided growth + 20% op margins? No. It's reasonable, possibly cheap. Biopharma peers growing 30-50% trade at 8-12x forward. TGTX's discount reflects single-product risk and fenebrutinib overhang.
If SC BRIUMVI succeeds: Re-rating to 10-12x forward revenue on an expanded TAM is plausible -> $56-69/share on FY26 guided revenue, or $61-75 on beat estimates. That's 70-125% upside.
If SC BRIUMVI fails or fenebrutinib disrupts: Revenue growth decelerates toward 15-20% by FY28, multiple compresses to 4-5x -> $22-28/share. ~20-35% downside.
Risk/reward is asymmetric to the upside, contingent on SC data.
Agree:
Differ:
BRIUMVI is a textbook product launch — $0 to $616M in 3 years, 87% YoY, accelerating absolute dollar growth, expanding op margins, and conservative management that beats its own guide by 8-18% annually. At 6x forward EV/Revenue for 44% guided growth, the stock is not expensive. SC BRIUMVI (data YE2026) is the binary catalyst: success doubles the TAM and unlocks a re-rating to 10-12x. Failure + fenebrutinib competitive entry compresses the multiple to 4-5x.
Risk/reward is asymmetric to the upside, but single-product concentration and the 2-3 year fenebrutinib timeline cap near-term conviction. Watching Q1 FY26 for continuation of the beat pattern ($205-210M would confirm) and SC BRIUMVI enrollment completion.
Status: New — Constructive | Conviction: 3.5/5
Analysis produced: 2026-04-06 | WSM earnings review | Q4 FY25 (Dec 2025) Data sources: Scout brief (TGTX_earnings-review_2026-04-03), Atlas baseline (2026-04-03), Q4 FY25 PR, Q4 FY25 transcript summary, web search (April 6, 2026)
-wsm (No position in TGTX)