Investing analyses

# AMZN — Earnings Review Q4 FY25 (Atlas)

> Date: 2026-04-01
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-2025) | Reported: Feb 5, 2026
> Market cap: $2,200B | EV/TTM Rev: 2.6x | Revenue growth: 13.6% YoY
> FY25 Revenue: $716.9B | FY25 EPS: $7.17 | TTM FCF: $11.2B

## Verdict

Amazon delivered its strongest quarter in years — AWS re-accelerated to 24% (fastest in 13 quarters), advertising grew 23%, and North America hit a record 9.0% operating margin. The $200B FY26 capex guide is the most consequential forward commitment: it signals management's conviction that AI infrastructure demand justifies spending 28% of revenue on capex. The compressed TTM FCF ($11.2B vs $38.2B prior year) is entirely a function of this investment, not operational deterioration — operating cash flow grew 20% to $139.5B. At 28x GAAP P/E on a business with 24% AWS growth, 23% ads growth, and a $244B AWS backlog growing 40% YoY, AMZN is reasonably valued relative to its high-margin growth engines. **Conviction: 4/5** — the capex cycle introduces execution risk, but the demand signals are unambiguous.

## Qualification Gate

Amazon is a $717B-revenue mega-cap conglomerate. Standard high-growth thresholds are designed for $200M-$5B revenue companies and do not apply cleanly. Noting for completeness:

| Criterion | Threshold | AMZN Actual | Pass/Fail | Note |
|-----------|-----------|-------------|-----------|------|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% | 13.6% (consol), AWS 24%, Ads 23% | **Fail (consol)** | Mega-cap with $717B revenue base; high-margin segments grow 23-24% |
| Gross margin | >60% | 48.5% | **Fail** | Retail drags blended margin; AWS op margin 35%, ads near-incremental margin |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $213,400M | **Pass** | 4,268x threshold |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 16 quarters | **Pass** | Full history |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | 0.9% | **Pass** | SBC declining as % of revenue (2.1% vs 2.7% YoY) |
| GAAP profitability | Improving | Net income +31% FY25, EPS $7.17 | **Pass** | Thir

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# AMZN — Q4 FY25 Earnings Review

> **Verdict: Strong quarter. AWS re-acceleration to 24% on $142B ARR is the story — and the leading indicators say it's not done.**
>
> Reported: Feb 5, 2026 | Quarter ending: Dec 31, 2025
> Analyst: wsm007 | Date: 2026-04-01

---

## Opening

AWS at 24% YoY on a $142B run rate — fastest growth in 13 quarters — is the kind of number that makes you sit up. This is not some small-base trick; Jassy himself pointed out what 24% on $142B means in absolute dollar terms vs "a higher percentage on a meaningfully smaller base, which is the case with our competitors." The backlog at $244B growing 40% YoY while revenue grows 24% is the textbook leading indicator divergence. Custom chips at >$10B ARR growing triple-digit %. Bedrock spend up 60% QoQ. These are the compounding engines.

I haven't written about AMZN specifically before — it's not the typical hypergrowth SaaS that dominates my portfolio. But applying my framework to a $717B revenue company that just accelerated from 8.7% to 13.6% YoY through FY25, with its highest-growth segment showing widening leading indicator divergence, this deserves attention.

---

## 1. Revenue — The Numbers

### Consolidated Revenue

| | Q122 | Q222 | Q322 | Q422 | Q123 | Q223 | Q323 | Q423 | Q124 | Q224 | Q324 | Q424 | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 | Q425 |
| | Mar-22 | Jun-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 116.4 | 121.2 | 127.1 | 149.2 | 127.4 | 134.4 | 143.1 | 170.0 | 143.3 | 148.0 | 158.9 | 187.8 | 155.7 | 167.7 | 180.2 | 213.4 |
| QoQ % | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 17.4% | 0.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 18.8% | -15.7% | 3.3% | 7.4% | 18.2% | -17.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 18.4% |
| YoY % | 7.3% | 7.2% | 14.7% | -- | 9.4% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 13.6% |

### Same-Quarter YoY Trajectory Grid

| Quarte

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# AMZN — Earnings Review Q4 FY25 (Phil Fisher)

> Date: 2026-04-01
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-2025) | Reported: Feb 5, 2026
> Market cap: $2,200B | P/E (GAAP): 28x | Revenue growth: 13.6% YoY
> FY25 Revenue: $716.9B | FY25 EPS: $7.17 | TTM FCF: $11.2B

---

## Verdict

I have spent a career observing companies at inflection points — moments when management must choose between the comfortable path and the bold one. Amazon under Andy Jassy in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 presents one of the clearest cases I have encountered of a company that is "fortunate because it is able." The distinction matters enormously.

AWS re-accelerated to 24% year-over-year growth — the fastest in thirteen quarters — on a $142 billion annualized revenue base. Advertising grew 23% to $21.3 billion quarterly. North America retail achieved a record 9.0% operating margin. These are not the results of a company riding an industry tailwind; they are the results of a management team that has methodically built infrastructure advantages — custom silicon, regionalized fulfillment, an AI platform stack — that competitors cannot replicate at comparable economics.

The $200 billion capital expenditure plan for fiscal 2026 will strike many observers as reckless. I believe it is the opposite. It is the kind of long-range investment that sacrifices current free cash flow — compressed to $11.2 billion from $38.2 billion — for a position that will generate returns for a decade or more. The $244 billion AWS backlog, growing 40% year-over-year, tells us the demand is real. The question is not whether Amazon should be spending; it is whether they can execute the buildout without eroding the operational excellence that made AWS dominant.

My scuttlebutt research, however, reveals a concern that the financial statements cannot surface: AWS is experiencing significant talent attrition among its most experienced engineers, with 69-81% regretted departure rates reported. The October 2025 DynamoDB outage, which t

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# AMZN — Q4 FY25 Earnings Review

**GauchoRico | April 2026 | Quarter ending Dec 2025**

---

## The Central Question

Forget the headline revenue number for a second. The question the market is asking about Amazon is simple: **Is spending $200B in capex in FY26 — on top of $128B in FY25 — going to create value or destroy it?**

The Q4 results answer this decisively: **value creation, and it isn't close.**

## Why I'm Impressed

AWS at 24% YoY growth on a $142B annualized run rate. Let me say that again — 24% growth on $142 billion. That's the fastest growth in 13 quarters, and it's accelerating. The sequential adds tell the story:

| Quarter | AWS Rev ($B) | QoQ Add ($B) | YoY % |
|---------|-------------|-------------|-------|
| Q1 FY25 | $29.3 | +$0.5 | ~17% |
| Q2 FY25 | $30.9 | +$1.6 | ~19% |
| Q3 FY25 | $33.0 | +$2.1 | ~19% |
| Q4 FY25 | $35.6 | +$2.6 | 24% |

The QoQ adds are widening every quarter: $0.5B → $1.6B → $2.1B → $2.6B. That's textbook acceleration. And the backlog? **$244B, up 40% YoY and 22% QoQ.** Revenue is growing 24% but the backlog is growing 40%. That gap is your forward visibility. The demand is outstripping what they can install.

This reminds me of CRM in its best years — except CRM was doing this at $15B revenue, not $142B. The scale of what AWS is building has no historical parallel in cloud computing.

## The Valuation Math

Here's why this gets interesting. AMZN trades at ~$2.2T market cap.

**TTM earnings:** $77.7B net income → P/E 28x. Looks full, right?

Now build forward:

**Scenario 1: AWS at 22% growth (deceleration from 24%)**
- FY26 AWS revenue: ~$157B
- FY26 total revenue at 12.5% growth: ~$807B
- Net income growing 20% (conservative): ~$93B
- **Forward P/E: 23.7x**

**Scenario 2: AWS sustains 24%, total at 13.5%**
- FY26 revenue: ~$814B
- Net income growing 25%: ~$97B
- **Forward P/E: 22.7x**

**PEG ratio (using Scenario 2):** 22.7 / 25 = **0.91**

A PEG under 1 on a company with AWS's dominance, $244B in backlog, and advert

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# AMZN Q4 FY25 Earnings Review — Bear

> Date: 2026-04-01
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (ended Dec 31, 2025) | Reported: Feb 5, 2026
> Source: Scout brief at briefs/AMZN_earnings-review_2026-04-01/

---

## Prior Beliefs

I haven't published a formal AMZN earnings review before, but here is where I stood going into Q4 FY25, based on my portfolio notes through Oct 2024:

1. **Revenue growth:** Expected consolidated growth in the 11-13% range, consistent with Q2/Q3 FY25 trajectory. Holiday seasonality should lift absolute dollars significantly.
2. **AWS:** Expected continued acceleration from the ~19% run rate in Q2/Q3 FY25 toward low-20s. The custom chip narrative and AI demand signals were strong.
3. **Margins:** Expected GAAP op margins around 11%, possibly compressed by continued capex ramp and seasonal mix. AWS margins to remain in the 33-36% range.
4. **Guidance:** Expected Q1 FY26 revenue guide implying 10-12% YoY growth (conservative, per Amazon's habit). Expected another significant capex number for FY26.
5. **Valuation:** At ~$2.2T market cap, P/S around 2.6x on run-rate revenue — reasonable for a diversified mega-cap with an accelerating cloud/AI business. My conviction in Aug 2024 was that AMZN was "quite undervalued" and by Oct 2024 it was my "only large position."

---

## Updated Beliefs — Results vs Expectations

### The Numbers

| Metric | Prior Belief | Actual | Verdict |
|--------|-------------|--------|---------|
| Revenue | $205-210B range (11-13% YoY) | $213.4B (+13.6% YoY) | **Better** — above my high end |
| AWS Revenue | Low-20s% growth (~$34B) | $35.6B (+24% YoY) | **Significantly better** — fastest in 13 quarters |
| Op Margin [GAAP] | ~11% | 11.7% (reported), ~12.8% adjusted for $2.4B charges | **Better** — adjusted is very strong |
| Q1 FY26 Revenue Guide | 10-12% YoY implied | $176B mid (+13% YoY) | **Better** — higher than expected |
| FY26 CapEx | Large number, $150B+ | ~$200B | **Higher than expected** — the debate-worthy number |

### Multi-Quar

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# AMZN — Earnings Review Q4 FY25

> **Saul Rosenthal | April 1, 2026**
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-2025) | Reported: Feb 5, 2026
> Market Cap: ~$2,200B | P/E: 28x | TTM Revenue: $716.9B

## Verdict: A Very, Very Good Quarter — Especially Where It Matters

Folks, this was a very impressive quarter. Let me be direct: Amazon is not my typical holding — it's a $717 billion revenue behemoth, not the fast-growing $500 million to $5 billion company I usually gravitate toward. But when I look at what's happening *inside* Amazon — AWS growing 24% on a $142 billion annualized run rate, Advertising growing 23% on a $69 billion base — well, those numbers would be exceptional for ANY company, let alone segments within a two-trillion-dollar enterprise!

The headline number — total revenue up 13.6% — doesn't scream "Saul stock." But that's the blended number that includes a massive $426 billion North America retail business growing 10%. Peel that back and the growth engines are firing hard. AWS re-accelerated from 17% to 24% in four quarters!!! That is such a preposterous result at this scale!

**This was a beat-and-raise quarter.** Revenue of $213.4 billion beat guidance by 1.85%, the 7th consecutive beat. Q1 FY26 guidance implies 13% YoY growth at midpoint. Revenue trajectory is accelerating. That's what matters.

## The Numbers

| | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | $155.7 | $167.7 | $180.2 | $213.4 |
| YoY % | 8.7% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 13.6% |
| QoQ % | -17.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 18.4% |
| Beat % (vs guide mid) | +1.60% | +3.84% | +1.93% | +1.85% |
| GM (GAAP) | 50.5% | 51.8% | 50.8% | 48.5% |
| Op Margin (GAAP) | 11.8% | 11.4% | 9.7%* | 11.7%* |
| Op Margin (adj) | 11.8% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 12.8% |
| EPS (GAAP) | $1.59 | $1.68 | $1.95 | $1.95 |
| FCF ($B) | -$8.0 | $0.3 | $0.4 | $14.9 |
| FCF Margin | -5.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 7.0% |

*Q3 includes $4.3B special charges ($2.5B FTC + $1.8B severance). Q4 includes $2.4B charges ($1.1B Italy tax + $730

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# AMZN — Q4 FY25 Earnings Review (StockNovice)

> Earnings Date: February 5, 2026 | Quarter Ending: Dec 2025
> Analysis Date: 2026-04-01
> Source: Scout brief (AMZN_earnings-review_2026-04-01), transcript digest, quant prep, scuttlebutt
> Atlas baseline: Not available — first-time coverage
> Prior StockNovice writings on AMZN: None — first analysis

---

## The Headline

Here's how I'm thinking about it: Amazon put up a Q4 that, on the surface, looks like another dominant quarter from a company firing on nearly all cylinders. $213.4B in revenue (+13.6% YoY), beating the high end of guidance by $400M. AWS re-accelerated to 24% — its fastest growth in 13 quarters. Advertising grew 23%. North America hit a record 9.0% operating margin. And the beat-and-raise pattern continues — seven straight quarterly revenue beats.

But there's one thing that keeps tugging at me, and it's the same thing that two analysts asked about on the call and got no answer: where's the FCF floor? Andy Jassy deflected the question *twice*. That doesn't break the thesis — but it tells you what the debate is.

---

## Numbers Snapshot

| Metric | Q4 FY25 | Q4 FY24 | YoY | vs Guide Mid | Verdict |
|--------|---------|---------|-----|-------------|---------|
| Revenue ($B) | $213.4 | $187.8 | +13.6% | +1.9% beat ($3.9B) | Beat |
| Op Income ($B) | $25.0 (rptd) / $27.4 (adj) | $21.2 | +18% rptd / +29% adj | N/A | Strong |
| Net Income ($B) | $21.2 | $20.0 | +6.0% | — | Flat-ish |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.95 | $1.86 | +4.8% | — | OK |
| AWS Revenue ($B) | $35.6 | $28.8 | +24% | — | Accelerating |
| AWS Op Margin | 35.0% | 36.9% | -1.9pp | — | Compressing |
| Advertising ($B) | $21.3 | $17.3 | +23% | — | Strong |
| NA Op Margin | 9.0% | 8.0% | +1.0pp | — | Record |
| Intl Op Margin | 2.1% | 3.0% | -0.9pp | — | Charges + investment |
| Q4 FCF ($B) | $14.9 | $17.8 | -16% | — | Capex drag |
| TTM FCF ($B) | $11.2 | $38.2 | -71% | — | Compressed |
| SBC % of Rev | 2.1% | 2.7% | -60bps | — | Declining |

**Q1 F

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# AMZN — Q4 FY25 Earnings Review

> **Quarter:** Q4 FY25 (Dec 2025) | **Reported:** Feb 5, 2026
> **Revenue:** $213.4B | **YoY:** +13.6% ^^ | **Beat:** +1.85% vs guide mid
> **AWS:** $35.6B | **YoY:** +24% ^^!! | **ARR:** $142B
> **Op Income:** $25.0B (GAAP) / $27.4B (adj. ex-$2.4B charges)
> **EPS:** $1.95 | **TTM FCF:** $11.2B | **Market Cap:** ~$2,200B

---

## Links

- Q4 FY25 Press Release (EDGAR 8-K): sources/AMZN/press-releases/
- Q4 FY25 Earnings Transcript (Seeking Alpha): briefs/AMZN_earnings-review_2026-04-01/transcript.md
- Atlas baseline: ~/.agents/skills/atlas/analyses/AMZN/AMZN_earnings-review_Q4_FY25.md
- Bear analysis: ~/.claude/skills/bear/analyses/AMZN/AMZN_earnings-review_Q4_FY25.md
- WSM analysis: ~/.claude/skills/wsm/analyses/AMZN/AMZN_earnings-review_Q4_FY25.md
- Saul analysis: ~/.claude/skills/saul/analyses/AMZN/AMZN_earnings-review_Q4_FY25.md

---

## Platform Assessment — The muji Layer

Here's the thing... Amazon is the most comprehensive "scale in platform" story in the public markets today. IMHO, nobody else comes close in terms of sheer breadth of BUILDING BLOCKS that compound on each other.

### 1. AWS as Infrastructure Platform (Building Block !!!)

$142B ARR cloud platform — THE infrastructure layer the internet runs on. Hundreds of services that are building blocks other companies build ON. Every AWS service makes every other AWS service more valuable (flywheel). Self-serve GTM — you can spin up an EC2 instance with a credit card. **No SI dependency.** Green flag.

### 2. Custom Silicon as Platform Moat (Building Block !!)

This is the one the market is underappreciating. Amazon is building its own chips — PICKS AND SHOVELS for the AI era — INSIDE their own cloud platform:

- **Trainium** (AI): Multibillion-dollar ARR, fully subscribed, 1.4M chips landed, powers majority of Bedrock inference. **30-40% better price-performance than comparable GPUs.**
- **Graviton** (CPU): Multibillion-dollar ARR, 50%+ YoY growth, 90% of top 1,000 AWS

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# AMZN — Q4 FY25 Earnings Review (Bert Hochfeld)

> Date: 2026-04-01
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-2025) | Reported: Feb 5, 2026
> Market cap: ~$2,250B | Share price: ~$208 | EV: ~$2,193B
> FY25 Revenue: $716.9B | FY25 EPS: $7.17 | TTM FCF: $11.2B

---

## Summary

I haven't covered Amazon in the newsletter as a primary recommendation — at $2.25 trillion in market capitalization, it sits outside the mid-cap growth universe where I spend most of my analytical effort. But applying my framework, Amazon just delivered what I consider to be one of the more impressive quarters from any company in the past year. AWS re-accelerated to 24% year-over-year growth on a $142 billion annualized revenue run rate — the fastest growth in 13 quarters — and the company posted $213.4 billion in total revenue, beating the top end of its guidance range. Adjusted for $2.4 billion in special charges, operating income reached $27.4 billion. The complication, and the reason the stock trades at what I consider a meaningful discount to intrinsic value, is the $200 billion FY26 capex guidance with no FCF floor — a point two analysts pressed on the call and management politely declined to address. At a GAAP P/E of approximately 29X against 30% earnings growth, the PEG ratio is essentially 1.0X — fair value territory on a consolidated basis, but the sum-of-parts math suggests the market is not appropriately valuing the high-growth, high-margin segments within the conglomerate. For holders, this is a strong hold. For those building positions in AI infrastructure, Amazon deserves serious consideration alongside the pure-plays.

---

**Headline KPIs:**
- Revenue: $213.4B; YoY +13.6%; beat guidance midpoint by +1.85% (7th consecutive beat)
- AWS revenue: $35.6B; YoY +24% (fastest growth in 13 quarters); annualized run rate $142B
- Advertising revenue: $21.3B; YoY +23%
- Operating income: $25.0B reported ($27.4B adjusted for $2.4B special charges)
- GAAP EPS: $1.95 (FY25: $7.17, +30% YoY)
- FCF: $14.9B quar

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