Investing analyses

# CRWD — Earnings Review Q3 FY26 (Atlas)

> Date: 2026-02-23
> Quarter: Q3 FY26 (fiscal quarter ending October 31, 2025; reported December 2, 2025)
> Market cap: ~$95–100B | EV/TTM Rev: ~20x | Revenue growth: +22.2% YoY

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## Verdict

CRWD is executing a textbook post-disruption recovery. Revenue at 22.2% YoY sits below the 30% growth threshold, but the leading indicator stack — net new ARR +73% YoY ($265M), Falcon Flex ARR $1.35B (+200%), re-Flex deals lifting ARR ~50% on early renewal — tells a materially different story than the lagged revenue line. The platform moat is intact: 97%+ gross retention, Gartner EPP Customers' Choice for the 6th consecutive year, and 22.5% endpoint market share at 1.6x the next dedicated vendor. The single biggest binary risk is the March 3, 2026 Q4 FY26 earnings + FY27 initial guidance — 25%+ revenue growth validates the current multiple; sub-20% triggers a 15–25% de-rating. The DOJ/SEC investigation into the $32M Carahsoft/IRS deal is a live governance overhang that directly touches ARR reporting methodology, not merely a headline risk.

**Conviction: 3/5. Hold existing. Add on FY27 guidance confirmation at 25%+.**

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## Qualification Gate

| Criterion | Threshold | Actual | Status |
|-----------|-----------|--------|--------|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% (>40% preferred) | 22.2% | FAIL — post-outage context; leading indicators confirm re-acceleration in progress |
| Gross margin | >60% (>70% preferred) | 75.1% GAAP / ~78% NG | PASS |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $1,234M | PASS |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 19 quarters in DB | PASS |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | ~2.4% YoY | PASS |
| GAAP profitability trajectory | Improving or positive | GAAP op margin -5.6% (was -14% 4Q ago; improving) | PASS (improving) |

**Gate: Conditional fail on revenue growth. Context-adjusted to PASS. The 22.2% revenue growth reflects lagged ARR bookings from the July 2024 outage period. Net new ARR +73% YoY confirms the revenue line wil

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# CRWD — Stock Analysis (March 2026)

**The leading indicators are screaming. Revenue isn't listening yet — but it will.**

CrowdStrike just posted its best quarter since the July 2024 outage. Net new ARR of $331M (+47% YoY) is a record — not just post-outage, but in the company's history. Full-year net new ARR crossed $1B for the first time. Falcon Flex at $1.69B ending ARR (+120% YoY) is transforming the commercial model from product sale to platform consumption. Revenue growth re-accelerated to 23.3% YoY, up from the 19.8% trough four quarters ago, and FY27 guidance of 22-23% is sandbagged given a record Q1 pipeline that's +49% YoY.

**But I'm not pounding the table.** At 18.3x run-rate P/S for a 23% revenue grower, the stock prices in most of the recovery. The DOJ/SEC investigation into the Carahsoft/IRS deal is a live binary risk that touches ARR reporting methodology. SBC at 24% of revenue is going the wrong direction. And management quietly changed commission amortization from 4 to 5 years, adding $85-95M to non-GAAP op income — cosmetic.

**Verdict: Hold/Accumulate on weakness.** The leading indicator divergence is undeniable. Revenue re-acceleration to 25%+ is 2-3 quarters away. But at current prices, the risk/reward is balanced, not asymmetric.

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## The Numbers

### Revenue — QoQ Grid (Years Across, Quarters Down)

| | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Q1** | 30.2% | 28.3% | 19.2% | 17.2% | **9.2%** | Decelerating — outage drag heaviest here |
| **Q2** | 11.5% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | **5.9%** | **Accelerated vs FY25** |
| **Q3** | 12.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 4.8% | **5.6%** | **Accelerated vs FY25** |
| **Q4** | — | 9.7% | 7.5% | 4.8% | **5.8%** | **Accelerated vs FY25** |

Three consecutive quarters (Q2-Q4 FY26) where same-quarter QoQ exceeded the prior year. That's the recovery pattern. But note: FY26 Q3/Q4 QoQ (5.6%, 5.8%) is still below FY24 levels (7.4%, 7.5%). We've recovered past FY25's outage-depressed levels

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# CRWD — Stock Analysis (Phil Fisher)

> Date: 2026-03-31
> Type: Stock Analysis — Initial Coverage
> Market cap: ~$96B | Stock price: ~$385 | EV/TTM Rev: ~20x | FY26 Revenue: $4.81B (+21.7% YoY)
> FY27 Guided Revenue: $5.87–5.93B (+22–23% YoY) | ARR: $5.25B (+24% YoY)

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## Verdict

I have spent many years studying companies whose managements possess the rare ability to create new avenues of growth long after the original product has matured. CrowdStrike, under the leadership of George Kurtz, presents one of the more compelling modern examples of a company that is "fortunate because it is able." This is not merely a firm riding the cybersecurity tailwind — it is an enterprise that has methodically constructed a single-agent platform architecture, built an unassailable data flywheel from trillions of daily security events, and then commercialised that advantage through an innovative consumption model (Falcon Flex) that is transforming its economics from within.

The recovery from the July 2024 outage — which would have permanently impaired a lesser company — is now substantially complete. Net new ARR has surged to $330.7M in Q4 FY26 (+47% YoY), exceeding the pre-outage peak by 17%. The fact that gross retention held at 97% through the crisis and customer commitment packages converted into expanded Flex subscriptions tells me that the relationship between CrowdStrike and its customers runs deeper than a vendor arrangement. This is the kind of franchise value that cannot be replicated by spending money.

However, I must note several concerns that prevent me from according this company the unconditional endorsement I would give to, say, a Motorola in its finest period. The DOJ/SEC investigation into the Carahsoft/IRS transaction touches the very methodology by which CrowdStrike reports its most important metric — ARR. Point 15 of my framework — management integrity — demands that I treat this as a live concern until it is resolved, not merely as a headline nuisance.

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# CRWD — Stock Analysis (Bear)

> Date: 2026-03-31
> Market cap: ~$96B | Share price: ~$380 | Shares: ~253M
> FY ends: January 31 | Most recent quarter: Q4 FY26 (Jan-2026)

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## Verdict

CrowdStrike is the premier pure-play cybersecurity platform — first to $5B ARR, dominant market share, genuine data moat, and a commercial model (Falcon Flex) that is transforming how customers buy security. The leading indicators are about as good as I've seen from a $96B company: net new ARR +47% YoY, pipeline +49%, Falcon Flex ARR +120%. These numbers are telling us revenue will re-accelerate, probably to 25%+ in FY27.

But the numbers have to match the theory, and the revenue line hasn't crossed 25% yet. The market is pricing the recovery as a certainty. At 20x TTM revenue and ~16x forward, this is a quality premium on a company that is still GAAP unprofitable at the operating level and running SBC at 23.6% of revenue. The commission amortization extension ($85-95M tailwind to non-GAAP FY27) adds a cosmetic layer that makes the margin story less clean than it appears. The DOJ/SEC investigation is unresolved and touches ARR methodology — low probability, but the tail risk is real.

I wouldn't sell it, and I wouldn't make it my largest position either. The setup is for a solid mid-teens compounder from here, not a 3-bagger. Good company, fair price — which means you're paying for quality, not getting it at a discount.

**Conviction: 3.5/5. Hold or moderate position (5-8%). Add on a pullback to ~$330 (17x TTM) or on FY27 revenue crossing 25% YoY.**

I could be wrong.

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## Qualification Gate

| Criterion | Threshold | Actual | Status |
|-----------|-----------|--------|--------|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% preferred | 23.3% | CONDITIONAL — below threshold, but leading indicators (NNA +47%) confirm re-acceleration in progress |
| Gross margin | >70% | 75.8% GAAP / 79% Non-GAAP | PASS |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $1,305M | PASS |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 19 quar

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# CRDO — Earnings Review, Q3 FY26
**Date:** 2026-02-22 | **Analyst:** Saul Rosenthal
**Quarter:** Q3 FY26 (ended January 31, 2026) — PRELIMINARY RESULTS
**Official results + transcript:** March 2, 2026

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## Verdict

CRDO just delivered the biggest beat in its history — $406 million versus guidance of $335–345 million. That is a $63–68 million upside, roughly 19% above the midpoint. And the company raised its full-year FY26 growth outlook from 170% to more than 200%.

You know what that means? It means demand picked up SHARPLY late in the quarter. And management said exactly that. This is the opposite of deceleration. This is re-acceleration.

**Thesis: Strengthening. I am not adding pre-March 2 — but if the margins hold up on the official results, I would be a buyer.**

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## Revenue Trajectory — The Only Thing That Matters First

| | Q3_FY25 | Q4_FY25 | Q1_FY26 | Q2_FY26 | Q3_FY26* |
| | Jan-25 | Apr-25 | Jul-25 | Oct-25 | Jan-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 135.0 | 170.0 | 223.1 | 268.0 | 406.0 |
| YoY % | +154% | +180% | +274% | +272% | +201% |
| QoQ % | +36% | +26% | +31% | +20% | +51% |

*Preliminary, unaudited. Official results March 2.

Look at that QoQ column. After decelerating from +36% to +26% to +31% to +20%, we get FIFTY-ONE PERCENT sequential growth. That is such a preposterous result! The revenue went from $268 million to $406 million in a single quarter. That's $138 million of new revenue added in 90 days.

Yes, YoY decelerated from 272% to 201%. But that is a math problem — we are lapping the massive ramp that started in Q3 FY25. The QoQ re-acceleration tells the real story. Demand is not slowing. Demand is accelerating.

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## Multi-Quarter Financial Table (Latest Complete Data = Q2 FY26)

| | Q1_FY25 | Q2_FY25 | Q3_FY25 | Q4_FY25 | Q1_FY26 | Q2_FY26 |
| | Jul-24 | Oct-24 | Jan-25 | Apr-25 | Jul-25 | Oct-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 59.7 | 72.0 | 135.0 | 170.0 | 223.1 | 268.0 |
| YoY % | +70% | +64% | 

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# CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) — Stock Analysis

> **Bert Hochfeld | April 6, 2026**
> Market Cap: ~$100.6B | EV: ~$96.1B | Price: $399.12
> FY26 Revenue: $4,812M (+22% YoY) | ARR: $5.25B (+24% YoY)
> EV/TTM Revenue: 20.0X | Forward P/E (FY27 NG): 82X | Rule of 40: 52.3

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## Summary

CrowdStrike is the preeminent pure-play cybersecurity platform company, the first and only to reach $5 billion in ARR, and it has executed a textbook recovery from the July 2024 outage incident that temporarily disrupted its growth trajectory. The company's Q4 FY26 results — record net new ARR of $331M (+47% YoY), record FCF of $376M, and the achievement of GAAP profitability — confirm that the post-outage damage was transitory and that the underlying business engine is accelerating. The Falcon Flex go-to-market innovation has transformed the commercial model, with $1.69B of Flex ARR growing at >120% YoY and driving a Reflex upsell cycle that adds 26-48% to customer ARR on a 7-month cadence. The leading indicator stack — net new ARR +47%, pipeline +49% YoY, combined Cloud/Identity/SIEM at $1.9B (+45% YoY) — is the strongest in the cybersecurity sector and points to revenue re-acceleration above 25% over the next several quarters. The DOJ/SEC investigation into the Carahsoft/IRS transaction remains an unresolved tail risk that touches ARR reporting methodology. Where I struggle, however, is with the valuation. At 20X EV/TTM revenue, 82X forward P/E, and a PEG of 2.8X, the shares are pricing in the recovery and more. In my most recent newsletter coverage (March 6, 2026), I noted the results were strong but concluded: "EV/S >18X with FCF yield <1.5% — too elevated to recommend despite strong results." The stock has risen further since that assessment. I want to own this company, but I want to own it at a price that gives me a margin of safety. The right entry point is in the range of $340-360, corresponding to roughly 16-17X NTM revenue.

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## Business Overview

I have mentioned Crow

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