Investing analyses

# HIMX — Rolling Earnings Summary

> Window: Q1 FY25 → Q4 FY25 (4 quarters)
> Last updated: 2026-04-30 by atlas
> Status: Inaugural rolling file — created during Atlas stock-analysis. Future personas should append, not rewrite.

## Trajectory (one sentence)

After two years of post-COVID stabilization (FY23–FY24 in the $207–240M range), HIMX has re-entered cyclical contraction in FY25 (−8.2% YoY full year, 5 consecutive quarters of negative YoY revenue) — but Q4 FY25's +9.3pp QoQ acceleration and management's explicit "Q1 FY26 = trough of the year" call mark the first signal of potential inflection, with H2 FY26 recovery thesis tied to lean customer inventory + new automotive project ramps + emerging products (WiseEye, CPO, Tcon) outperforming the legacy core.

## 4-Quarter Financial Grid

| Metric | Q1 FY25 (Mar-25) | Q2 FY25 (Jun-25) | Q3 FY25 (Sep-25) | Q4 FY25 (Dec-25) | Direction |
|--------|------------------|------------------|------------------|------------------|-----------|
| Revenue ($M) | 215.1 | 214.8 | 199.2 | 203.1 | Stabilizing at ~$200M |
| YoY % | +3.6% | −10.4% | −10.4% | −14.4% | Worsening |
| QoQ % | −9.3% | −0.1% | −7.3% | +2.0% | Inflection in Q4 |
| Beat vs guide | +1.3% | +0.9% | +8.5% | +2.0% | Consistent beats |
| Gross Margin [GAAP/IFRS] | 30.5% | 31.2% | 30.2% | 30.4% | Range-bound |
| Op Margin [GAAP/IFRS] | 9.2% | 8.4% | −0.3% | 3.4% | Compressing |
| Net Margin [GAAP/IFRS] | 9.3% | 7.7% | 0.6% | 3.1% | Compressing |
| EPS (Diluted ADS) | $0.114 | $0.095 | $0.006 | $0.036 | Trough Q3, recovery Q4 |
| OCF ($M) | 56.0 | 60.5 | 6.7 | 15.8 | Q3 trough, partial recovery |
| FCF ($M) | 50.8 | 55.9 | 0.4 | ~10–15 (est) | Q3 near zero |

## Segment Mix (4 quarters)

| Segment | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | YoY (Q4) |
|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|----------|
| LDDIC ($M) | 25.0 | 24.9 | 19.0 | 21.7 | −13.2% |
| SMDDIC ($M) | 150.5 | 144.5 | 141.0 | 139.1 | −16.6% (auto-exposed) |
| Non-Driver ($M) | 39.6 | 45.4 | 39.2 | 42.3 | −6.9% (best of three) |
| Auto % of total | 50% | 50% | >50% | ~50% | Stable |
| Tcon % of total | — | — | — | >10% | Disclosed crossing 10% |

## Promise Tracker

| Promise | Made on | Status | Notes |
|---------|---------|--------|-------|
| Q4 FY24 guide: flat to slightly down (~$222M) | Q3 FY24 call | ✅ Beat | Actual $237.2M (+6.7%) |
| Q1 FY25 guide: $204–212M | Q4 FY24 call | ✅ Beat | Actual $215.1M (+1.3%) |
| Q2 FY25 guide: $205–221M (mid $213M) | Q1 FY25 call | ✅ Beat | Actual $214.8M (+0.9%) |
| Q3 FY25 guide: $178–189M (mid $184M) | Q2 FY25 call | ✅ Beat | Actual $199.2M (+8.5%) |
| Q4 FY25 guide: flat QoQ (~$199M) | Q3 FY25 call | ✅ Beat | Actual $203.1M (+2.0%) |
| Q1 FY26 guide: $191–199M (mid ~$196M) | Q4 FY25 call | ⏳ Pending | Reports May 7, 2026 |
| Q1 FY26 = "trough of the year" | Q4 FY25 call | ⏳ Pending | Will require H1 FY26 evidence |
| H2 FY26 revenue recovery | Q4 FY25 call | ⏳ Pending | Tied to auto project ramps + emerging products |
| WiseEye mass production 2026 | Q4 FY25 call | ⏳ In progress | Acer Swift Edge 14 already in MP |
| CPO validation 2026 | Q4 FY25 call | ⏳ In progress | ForeSee partnership; volume 2027–2028 |
| OLED "real ramp" 2027 | Q4 FY25 call | Future | Smartphone OLED <10% of FY26 sales |

**Pattern:** 100% beat rate over 6 most recent quarters (avg +4.8%). Beat magnitude has tightened from +14.1% (Q4 FY24) to +2.0% (Q4 FY25), suggesting management has refined forecasting toward more accurate mid-points. Conservative guidance posture remains.

## Language Shift Monitor

| Quarter | Demand tone | Margin tone | Long-term tone |
|---------|-------------|-------------|----------------|
| Q1 FY25 | Cautious; tariff uncertainty flagged | Stable GM target ~30.5% | Constructive on auto + emerging |
| Q2 FY25 | Cautiously optimistic | Slight upside (31.2%) | WiseEye design wins building |
| Q3 FY25 | Weakening — revenue missed forecasts; stock dipped | Op margin near breakeven (−0.3%) acknowledged | CPO/Kuo narrative still active |
| Q4 FY25 | "Limited short-term visibility" + **explicit "Q1 FY26 trough of the year"** | Gross stable 30.4%; op leverage problem implicit | High conviction on COUPE/WiseEye/LCoS/OLED multi-vector ramp |

**Notable language shifts in Q4 FY25:**
- "Trough of the year" — unusually committed forward call from semi management.
- "Limited short-term visibility" — uncharacteristic candor.
- "Cautiously optimistic" repeated 2x on automotive — softer than Q2 FY25 confidence.
- "Hundreds of millions of dollars" repeated 2x re: CPO potential — large aspirational framing for an $830M-revenue company.
- WiseEye standalone revenue request: management deflected (qualitative "ramp meaningfully" without a number).

## Analyst Concern Tracker

| Concern | First raised | Current status | Resolution |
|---------|--------------|----------------|------------|
| FY25 revenue contraction extending | Q2 FY25 | **Active** | Worsened through Q4; management calls Q1 FY26 trough |
| Op margin compression on lower revenue | Q3 FY25 | **Active** | Q3 op margin negative; Q4 partial recovery to 3.4% |
| WiseEye revenue contribution timing | Recurring | **Active** | Management still won't size; "ramp meaningfully in 2026" |
| COUPE timeline credibility (Kuo projections) | Q1 FY25 (Kuo note) | **Active / Watching** | Mass production targeted 2H FY26; first material test point |
| Chinese DDIC pricing pressure | Multi-year | **Active / Structural** | China DDIC output +18% in 2024; LDDIC down 52% over 2.5yr |
| Tariff exposure | Q4 FY25 | Resolved (low) | Direct US shipments ~2%; indirect risk acknowledged but not quantified |
| Dividend continuity | Q4 FY25 | Pending | Annual policy maintained; FY25 amount TBA |

## Quarter-by-Quarter Verdict

| Quarter | Revenue | Margins | Forward tone | Atlas verdict |
|---------|---------|---------|--------------|---------------|
| Q1 FY25 | Beat (+1.3%) | GM 30.5% (in line) | Cautious | OK quarter — guide-meeting |
| Q2 FY25 | Beat (+0.9%)