Investing analyses

# MU — Earnings Review Q1 FY26 (Atlas)

> Date: 2026-02-23
> Quarter: Q1 FY26 (September–November 2025, reported December 17, 2025)
> Market cap: ~$108B | P/S TTM: ~2.6x | Revenue growth: +56.7% YoY | EPS growth: +167% YoY

## Verdict

Q1 FY26 was Micron's best quarter in its 47-year history on every metric simultaneously: revenue, gross margin, operating margin, FCF, EPS — all all-time highs. The $13.6B print beat guidance midpoint by $1.1B (+9.1%). Q2 FY26 guidance of $18.7B implies another 37% sequential surge, with 68% gross margin guiding 11pp above Q1's record. HBM is sold out through calendar 2026 under locked LTAs. The valuation — 2.6x trailing P/S, ~5.2x trailing P/E, ~14% FCF yield — is the market demanding proof this cycle doesn't reverse. Conviction 4/5: extraordinary execution and historic cheapness argue for 5, but secular-versus-cyclical resolution is Q3/Q4 FY26's job.

## Qualification Gate

| Criterion | Threshold | Actual | Pass? |
|-----------|-----------|--------|-------|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% (>40% preferred) | +56.7% | PASS |
| Gross margin | >60% preferred | 56.0% GAAP / 56.8% Non-GAAP (68% guided Q2) | BORDERLINE — improving |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $13.6B | PASS |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 37 quarters in DB | PASS |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | ~1% annual | PASS |
| GAAP profitability trajectory | Improving | $0 → $5.2B net income, 0% → 38.4% NM in 6 quarters | PASS |

Gross margin is the only soft point. GAAP GM of 56% misses the 60% threshold on a trailing basis. Q2 FY26 guide implies 68% — well above threshold. Not a disqualifying failure given cyclical context and clear trajectory.

## Six-Factor Score

| Factor | Rating | Detail |
|--------|--------|--------|
| Growth | Strong | +56.7% YoY Q1 FY26; DRAM +69% YoY. Three consecutive acceleration quarters. |
| Trajectory | Accelerating | +36.6% Q3 FY25 → +46.0% Q4 FY25 → +56.7% Q1 FY26 → Q2 guide implies ~79% YoY |
| Margins | Mid / Rapidly improving | GAAP GM 

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# MU — Earnings Review Q2 FY26 (Feb-26)
**Date:** 2026-03-19 | **By:** wsm007 | **Position:** Long MU, 10.2%

---

## Verdict

I've been investing for over a decade and I have never — **never** — seen a quarter like this from a memory company. $23.86B in revenue against an $18.7B guide. 75% gross margins. $12.20 EPS against an $8.42 guide. And then they guide Q3 at $33.5B and **81% gross margins**. Eish!! This isn't an earnings beat. This is a paradigm shift being repriced in real time.

Last month I wrote: "68% gross margins. At a memory company. I haven't written that sentence before." Now I'm writing: **75% gross margins. And 81% guided.** At Micron. A company that was at -33% gross margins three years ago. The 108-percentage-point margin swing is the most extraordinary financial transformation I've tracked in any sector.

HBM4 qualified for Nvidia Vera Rubin. Five-year Strategic Customer Agreements signed. Supply meeting only 50-67% of demand. This is the structural thesis fully confirmed.

---

## Revenue Trajectory

|  | Q2 FY25 (Feb-25) | Q3 FY25 (May-25) | Q4 FY25 (Aug-25) | Q1 FY26 (Nov-25) | **Q2 FY26 (Feb-26)** | Q3 FY26 guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 8.05 | 9.30 | 11.32 | 13.64 | **23.86** | **33.50** |
| QoQ % | -7.5% | +15.5% | +21.7% | +20.6% | **+74.9%** | +40.4% |
| YoY % | +38% | +37% | +46% | +57% | **+196%** | ~+260% |
| GM% [Non-GAAP] | 38.0% | 39.0% | 45.7% | 56.8% | **74.9%** | ~81% |
| OM% [Non-GAAP] | 24.9% | 26.8% | 35.0% | 47.0% | **69.0%** | — |
| EPS [Non-GAAP] | $1.56 | $1.91 | $3.03 | $4.78 | **$12.20** | **$19.15** |
| FCF ($B) | $0.9 | $1.9 | $0.8 | $3.9 | **$6.9** | ~$13.8 |

**Revenue tripled YoY.** $8.05B → $23.86B in 12 months. That's not growth. That's a phase transition.

**EPS trajectory:** $1.56 → $1.91 → $3.03 → $4.78 → **$12.20** → guided **$19.15**. That's a 12x increase in 5 quarters. I've never seen anything like this outside of a turnaround from losses to profits — but these are massive absolute 

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# Micron Technology (MU) — Stock Analysis & Q2 FY26 Preview

**Philip A. Fisher | March 2026**

---

## The Central Question

Micron Technology presents the investor with a question that I have grappled with throughout my career: can a company that has historically been subject to brutal commodity cycles become, through management skill and technological leadership, something more durable? My answer, after careful study, is that Micron is in the process of earning that transformation — but the transformation is not yet complete, and the investor must be clear-eyed about what remains cyclical and what has structurally changed.

---

## What This Company Does

Micron is one of three companies on earth capable of manufacturing advanced memory semiconductors at scale — the others being SK Hynix and Samsung. It produces DRAM (79% of revenue) and NAND flash (20%), serving data centres, mobile devices, automotive systems, and cloud computing infrastructure. The company's recent trajectory has been defined by a single product: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) — the stacked DRAM modules that sit directly on AI accelerator chips like Nvidia's GPUs. HBM has transformed Micron from a commodity memory maker into a technology-differentiated supplier with pricing power.

---

## The Latest Quarter: Q1 FY26 (Reported December 2025)

The results were exceptional by any standard I have encountered in the semiconductor industry:

| Metric | Q1 FY26 | QoQ | YoY |
|--------|---------|-----|-----|
| Revenue | $13.64B | +20.6% | +56.7% |
| GAAP Gross Margin | 56.0% | +1,130bps YoY | From -0.7% two years prior |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 47.0% | +1,200bps QoQ | From -20.2% two years prior |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $4.78 | — | From -$0.95 prior year |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.9B | 28.6% margin | Record |

The margin trajectory deserves particular emphasis. Two years ago, in Q1 FY24, Micron posted a GAAP gross margin of *negative 0.7%*. Today it is 56.0%. This is not a gradual recovery — it is a structural 

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# MU — Q3 FY25 Earnings Review
**GauchoRico | Filed: 2026-02-22**
**Quarter:** Q3 FY25 (March–May 2025) | **Reported:** June 25, 2025

---

## Headline

MU delivered a record Q3 with a massive beat on every metric — revenue $9.3B (vs. $8.7B guide, +6.9%), gross margin 39% [Non-GAAP] (vs. 36.5% guide, +250 bps), EPS $1.91 [Non-GAAP] (vs. $1.65 guide, +15.8%), FCF $1.9B+ (highest quarterly result in 6+ years). HBM run rate hit $6B+ annualized with 12-high ramping ahead of schedule. Data center revenue more than doubled YoY. Q4 guidance of $10.7B revenue (+15% sequential) with 42% gross margins implies continued acceleration. This is a legitimately impressive quarter — but I need to be honest with myself: MU is not my typical investment, and I have to apply my framework without getting caught up in the AI enthusiasm.

---

## 12-Quarter Revenue Table

| | Q222 | Q322 | Q123 | Q223 | Q323 | Q124 | Q224 | Q324 | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 | Q426E |
| | Feb-22 | May-22 | Nov-22 | Feb-23 | May-23 | Nov-23 | Feb-24 | May-24 | Nov-24 | Feb-25 | May-25 | Aug-25E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 7,786 | 8,642 | 4,726 | 3,693 | 3,752 | 8,709 | 5,824 | 6,811 | 13,643 | 8,053 | 9,301 | ~10,700 |
| QoQ % | +91% | +11% | -45% | -22% | +2% | +132% | -33% | +17% | +100% | -41% | +15.5% | +15% |
| YoY % | +25% | +16% | +16% | -53% | -57% | +84% | +58% | +82% | +57% | +38% | +37% | ~40%+ |

**Note:** The cyclicality of this business is extreme. Revenue swings of 50-130% QoQ are not unusual. Q1 FY25 (Nov-24) of $13.6B followed by Q2 FY25 (Feb-25) of $8.1B — that's a $5.6B sequential revenue swing. This is commodity semiconductor, not SaaS. Never forget that.

---

## Margins & Profitability

| | Q322 | Q123 | Q223 | Q323 | Q124 | Q224 | Q324 | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 |
| | May-22 | Nov-22 | Feb-23 | May-23 | Nov-23 | Feb-24 | May-24 | Nov-24 | Feb-25 | May-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin [GAAP] | 46.7% | -0.7% | -32.7% | -17.8

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# MU — Micron Technology
## Earnings Review: Q3 FY25 (reported June 25, 2025)
*Bear analysis written: 2026-02-22 | Hindsight available through Q1 FY26*

---

## Prior Beliefs (going into Q3 FY25)

I hadn't written about MU specifically before this review, so I'm reconstructing the thesis the market held. Consensus expected:
- Revenue ~$8.7B (midpoint of guide)
- Gross margin ~36.5% [NG]
- EPS ~$1.65 [NG]
- HBM as a growth driver, but execution against Samsung/SK Hynix uncertain

The bear case: memory is cyclical, Micron is the perpetual #3, and HBM share gains would erode as Samsung recovered. The numbers would follow the cycle, not Micron's execution.

---

## Updated Beliefs (what actually happened)

| Metric | Expected | Actual | Delta |
|--------|----------|--------|-------|
| Revenue | $8,700m | $9,301m | +$601m (+6.9%) |
| Gross Margin [NG] | 36.5% | 39.0% | +250bps |
| EPS [NG] | $1.65 | $1.91 | +$0.26 (+15.8%) |
| FCF | ~$1.5B est. | $1.9B+ | +$400m |

Three-for-three beat. Margin beat driven by "better than expected pricing" (CFO's words, not mine) — that's the important phrase. Volume drives revenue. Pricing drives margin. When both move in your favor simultaneously, something structural may be happening.

---

## Financial Performance Table (16 quarters)

| | Q3_FY22 | Q4_FY22 | Q1_FY23 | Q2_FY23 | Q3_FY23 | Q4_FY23 | Q1_FY24 | Q2_FY24 | Q3_FY24 | Q4_FY24 | Q1_FY25 | Q2_FY25 | Q3_FY25 |
| | May-22 | Aug-22 | Nov-22 | Feb-23 | May-23 | Aug-23 | Nov-23 | Feb-24 | May-24 | Aug-24 | Nov-24 | Feb-25 | May-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 8,642 | — | 4,726 | 3,693 | 3,752 | — | 8,709 | 5,824 | 6,811 | — | 13,643 | 8,053 | 9,301 |
| YoY % | +16.4% | — | +15.7% | -52.6% | -56.6% | — | +84.3% | +57.7% | +81.5% | — | +56.7% | +38.3% | +36.6% |
| QoQ % | +11.0% | — | -45.3% | -21.9% | +1.6% | — | +132.1% | -33.1% | +16.9% | — | +100.3% | -41.0% | +15.5% |
| GM % [GAAP] | 46.7% | — | — | -32.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 

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# MU — Earnings Review Q1 FY26 (Saul)

> Date: 2026-02-22
> Quarter Reviewed: Q1 FY26 (Nov 2025, reported Dec 2025)
> Context: Scout brief covers Q3 FY25 transcript; _ROLLING.md updated through Q1 FY26
> Market cap ~$108B at time of analysis

---

## Revenue Trajectory — The First Thing I Look At

Let me start with the numbers that matter most. Revenue:

| | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26E |
| | Feb-25 | May-25 | Aug-25 | Nov-25 | Feb-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 8,053 | 9,301 | 13,600 | 13,600 | 18,700 |
| YoY % | +38% | +37% | ~+56% | ~+56% | ~+80%+ |
| QoQ % | -41% | +15% | +46% | flat | +37% |
| Gross Margin % [GAAP] | 36.8% | 37.7% | 56% | 57% | 68% (guide) |
| GM % [Non-GAAP] | ~38% | 39% | 56% | 57% | 68% (guide) |
| Op Margin % | 22% | 23% | 45% | 47% | ~57% (guide) |
| EPS [Non-GAAP] | $1.56 | $1.91 | $4.50 | $4.78 | ~$6.50+ (implied) |
| FCF ($m) | 1,500 | 1,900 | 3,000 | 3,900 | — |

Now let me tell you what I see when I look at those numbers. Gross margin went from 37% to 57% in two quarters. Free cash flow went from $1.9B to $3.9B in two quarters. EPS went from $1.91 to $4.78. And the Q2 FY26 guidance is for 68% gross margins! That is such a preposterous result that I had to look at it twice!

This is not a SaaS company — I know that! Micron makes memory chips. But I follow the money. And what the money is telling me is that something fundamental has changed at this company, not something cyclical.

---

## What Changed — The HBM Story

Here is what happened. Artificial intelligence requires enormous amounts of memory bandwidth. Every GPU, every AI accelerator, every custom ASIC needs High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). And Micron — which spent years as the also-ran to Samsung and SK Hynix — has vaulted to the #2 HBM position with 21% market share, up from a rounding error a year ago.

The numbers tell the story:
- **HBM run rate:** >$6B annualized as of Q3 FY25
- **CY2025:** Sold out. Every bit. All year.
- **CY2026:** All 

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# Micron Technology (MU) — Earnings Review Q1 FY26
**Date:** 2026-02-22 | **Period:** Q1 FY26 (ended Nov-25, reported ~Dec 2025)
**Analyst:** StockNovice (Joe)

---

## Prior Beliefs Going In

No prior Joe analysis on MU. I own it at ~10.4% of portfolio (wsm007 allocation), which means it's effectively a starter position. My rough thesis entering Q1 FY26: HBM is real, the margin expansion is real, but memory is cyclical and I wasn't sure whether to trust the guide. Three consecutive massive beats will make you a believer — or they'll make you complacent right before the cycle turns.

---

## Headline Results

| Metric | Q3 FY25 [GAAP] | Q4 FY25 [GAAP] | Q1 FY26 [GAAP] | Q2 FY26 Guide |
|--------|---------------|---------------|---------------|---------------|
| Revenue | $9.3B | $13.6B | $13.6B | ~$18.7B |
| YoY Growth | +37% | ++100%+ | +56% | ~+50%+ |
| Gross Margin | 37.7% | 56% | 57% | ~68% |
| Operating Margin | 23.3% | 45% | 47% | — |
| EPS [Non-GAAP] | $1.91 | $4.50 | $4.78 | ~$5.68 |
| FCF | $1.9B | $3.0B | $3.9B | — |

Beat history (revenue vs. prior guide):
- Q3 FY25: +7% beat
- Q4 FY25: +27% beat ($10.7B guided → $13.6B delivered)
- Q1 FY26: +21% beat

That's not a beat — that's a demolition.

---

## "Is" vs "Could Be" Assessment

Here's how I'm thinking about it. Three months ago I might have called HBM a "could be" story. At this point, the data won't let me. HBM is "is":

- **$6B+ annual run rate** confirmed Q3 FY25; by Q1 FY26 the run rate has expanded further
- **Sold out through CY2025**, CY2026 agreements already finalized
- **4 major hyperscaler customers** — this isn't one deal with one whale
- **57% gross margin** [Non-GAAP] — unprecedented for memory. Historical range was 25-35%. Memory companies don't sustain 57% margins unless something structurally changed.

The Q2 FY26 guidance is what makes my jaw drop: $18.7B revenue at ~68% GM. If Micron delivers Q2 anywhere near that, they'll be on an annualized run rate of roughly $65-70B with gross m

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# MU — Micron Technology: Stock Analysis + Q2 FY26 Preview

**muji | March 2026**

---

## The Setup

Here's the thing... MU is not a company I'd normally be drawn to. No SaaS flywheel. No NRR. No platform optionality in the way I define it. Historically, memory is the **anti-platform** — commodity pricing, brutal cyclicality, COGS-heavy, capital-intensive.

But the AI supercycle has done something structurally different to this business, and I want to work through whether it's a durable shift or a cycle dressed up as a structural story.

**NUANCE:** What makes MU interesting *right now* is not the commodity DRAM business. It's that HBM has created something this industry has never had: **qualification moats + pricing power + supply constraints simultaneously.** That's a picks-and-shovels trifecta.

---

## The Numbers — and They're ABSURD

Let me just lay out what's happened here:

**Revenue trajectory:**
```
Q2 FY25:  $8.1B   ████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
Q3 FY25:  $9.3B   █████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
Q4 FY25: $11.3B   ███████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
Q1 FY26: $13.6B   █████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░
Q2 FY26: $18.7B+  ██████████████████░░░░░░░░ (guide)
```

+38% → +37% → +46% → +57% YoY ^^

That's **accelerating** YoY growth at $13.6B scale. DING DING DING.

**Margin trajectory:**
```
Q1 FY24: -0.7% GM (trough)
Q2 FY24: 18.5%
Q3 FY24: 26.9%
Q4 FY24: 35.3%
Q1 FY25: 38.4%
Q2 FY25: 36.8%
Q3 FY25: 37.7%
Q4 FY25: 44.7%
Q1 FY26: 56.0%    !!!
Q2 FY26: 68.0%    !!! (guided)
```

From **negative gross margin** to **68%** in seven quarters. I've covered hundreds of companies. I have *never* seen a margin inflection this dramatic at this scale. Not in SaaS. Not anywhere.

**FCF trajectory:**
```
Q1 FY25: $38M   (0.4% margin)
Q2 FY25: $857M  (10.6%)
Q3 FY25: $1.9B  (21.0%)
Q4 FY25: $803M  (7.1% — capex heavy)
Q1 FY26: $3.9B  (28.6%) !!!
```

$3.9 BILLION of free cash flow in a single quarter. At 29% FCF margin. For a memory company. Let that sink in.

---

## Platform Assessment (muji lens)


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# Micron Technology (MU) — Stock Analysis

**Bert Hochfeld | TickerTarget | March 31, 2026**

---

## Summary

Micron Technology is in the midst of the most extraordinary financial inflection in the history of the memory semiconductor industry. The company reported Q2 FY26 revenue of $23.9 billion — nearly tripling year-over-year — with GAAP gross margins of 74.4%, GAAP operating margins of 67.6%, and free cash flow of $6.9 billion, all records. Q3 FY26 guidance of $33.5 billion at 81% gross margin implies a single quarter that exceeds Micron's full-year revenue for every year through FY24. The shares, at approximately $357 and a market cap of $403 billion, trade at a forward P/E of roughly 6.3X and a PEG ratio well below 0.5X — an extraordinary discount to both its direct peers (SK Hynix at 11.5X) and the AI infrastructure companies it enables. The HBM supercycle, structural supply constraints, and the advent of multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs) argue persuasively that this is not a normal memory cycle. The question investors must answer is whether they believe memory has undergone a structural transformation or remains destined for mean-reversion. I believe the evidence strongly favors the former, and the shares represent a relative bargain at current levels.

---

## Business Overview

I haven't covered Micron in the newsletter as a dedicated deep dive before, though I referenced the company's strong results in the December 2025 portfolio commentary when Micron's Q1 FY26 report helped drive late-week risk-on sentiment. Applying my framework to this company for the first time:

Micron is one of three companies globally capable of manufacturing advanced memory semiconductors — DRAM and NAND — alongside SK Hynix and Samsung. It is the only U.S.-based memory manufacturer of the three, a distinction that carries increasing strategic weight in the age of AI infrastructure buildout and CHIPS Act subsidies ($6.4 billion awarded to Micron).

What makes Micro

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