Investing analyses

# NBIS — Earnings Review Q4 FY25 (Atlas)

> Date: 2026-02-23 (updated from 2026-02-21; incorporates transcript digest, quant-prep, and scuttlebutt stage outputs)
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-25)
> Market cap: ~$24.6B | EV/TTM Rev: ~47x | EV/FY26 Rev (midpoint): ~7.5x | Revenue growth: +547% YoY

## Verdict

Q4 FY25 was the quarter Nebius turned the corner: first positive group EBITDA ($15m), ARR beat guidance by 25%, revenue re-accelerated QoQ, and active capacity jumped 70% after four quarters flat. The structural story — full-stack AI cloud, European data sovereignty moat, NVIDIA ecosystem lock-in — is intact and strengthening. The FY26 guide ($3.0-3.4B revenue, 40% Adj EBITDA margin, $7-9B ARR) is credible given the $1.58B deferred revenue book and known hyperscaler contracts (Microsoft ~$18B TCV, Meta ~$3B TCV). The critical new disclosure: FY26 CapEx of $16-20B, a 3.2x raise from the prior $5B guide. This is the most important number in the report — it defines the capital model for the next two years and confirms FCF will remain deeply negative through FY26. Economic returns are a FY27+ story. **Conviction: 4/5.**

## Qualification Gate

| Criterion | Threshold | Actual | Pass? |
|-----------|-----------|--------|-------|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% | +547% | PASS |
| Gross margin | >60% | 70.0% [GAAP] | PASS |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $227.7M | PASS |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 10 quarters | PASS |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | ~7% (238→253m shares over FY25) | PASS |
| GAAP profitability trajectory | Improving | EBITDA positive Q4; GAAP op margin -103% but +327pp YoY improvement | MARGINAL PASS |

**Gate: PASS**

## Six-Factor Score

| Factor | Rating | Detail |
|--------|--------|--------|
| Growth | Strong | +547% YoY Q4; FY25 $529.8m vs FY24 $91.5m restated. Core AI grew ~830% YoY. Dollar adds accelerating last 3 quarters: +$49.8m → +$41.0m → +$81.6m. |
| Trajectory | Accelerating | QoQ re-accelerated: +55.9% vs +39.0% prior quarter. ARR QoQ 

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# NBIS — Meta $27B Deal Analysis

**wsm | 16 March 2026**

---

## The Deal

This is a transformational contract. Full stop.

**$27 billion over 5 years with Meta:**
- **$12B dedicated capacity** — Nebius builds and delivers compute to Meta across multiple locations, starting early 2027
- **Up to $15B additional capacity** — Meta acts as buyer-of-last-resort for unsold inventory after Nebius sells to third-party customers first

Built on **Nvidia Vera Rubin platform** — one of the first large-scale Rubin deployments globally.

**FY26 guidance unchanged** — this deal starts delivering revenue in 2027, not 2026.

---

## Why This Is Structurally Important

Let me update the contracted revenue picture:

| Customer | Contract Value | Type | Status |
|----------|---------------|------|--------|
| Microsoft | $19.4B | Multi-year | Delivering (first tranche Nov'25) |
| Meta (existing) | ~$3B | Multi-year | Servicing |
| **Meta (new)** | **$27B** | **5-year** | **Starts early 2027** |
| **Total Named** | **~$49.4B** | | |

**$49.4B in named contracts against a $32B market cap.** That ratio has gone from 0.9x to 1.5x in a single announcement.

But here's the thing — and this is the nuance the market may be missing:

### The Buyer-of-Last-Resort Structure Is Genius

The $15B tranche is structured so that **Meta only buys what Nebius can't sell to other customers.** In other words:

1. Nebius builds capacity
2. Nebius sells to multi-tenant cloud customers first (higher margin, stickier, recurring)
3. Whatever Nebius can't fill, Meta takes at contracted prices

**This is the best of both worlds.** Nebius gets downside protection (guaranteed buyer for all capacity) while preserving upside (multi-tenant revenue is higher-margin and builds the durable cloud business). The bridge strategy I flagged at MS TMT is now explicitly architected into the contract structure.

If Nebius fills the capacity with cloud customers → higher revenue per GPU, higher margins, and Meta takes less.
If 

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# NBIS — Earnings Review Q4 FY25
**Philip A. Fisher | February 22, 2026**
**Task:** Earnings Review | **Period:** Q4 FY25 (quarter ending December 2025)

---

## Prior Beliefs Going In

No prior Phil Fisher analysis on record for Nebius Group. This is a first-look earnings review. The Atlas baseline (Q4 FY25, 2026-02-21) provides a Conviction 4/5 verdict with six-factor Strong ratings on Growth, Trajectory, and Dominance. My task is to apply the Fisher framework independently and then determine where I agree, disagree, or add nuance.

---

## Scuttlebutt

Scuttlebutt is the foundation of my method. I will not form a view on management quality or competitive position from numbers alone. The following is drawn from active research across all seven categories.

**Customers.** The customer case study corpus is thin — appropriate for a company that went commercial only in mid-2024. Named early adopters include CRISPR-GPT researchers from Stanford, Princeton, and Google DeepMind; vLLM (the leading open-source LLM inference framework); and Slingshot AI. The caliber of these early adopters is unusually high. When the customers choosing your product include the researchers building the dominant inference framework, that is not coincidence — it is a signal of technical credibility that no marketing budget can manufacture. Capacity has been sold out since at least Q3 FY25. Volozh himself stated the Meta contract "was limited to the amount of capacity we had available." I have rarely encountered a clearer demand signal than a vendor who must turn away business.

**Employees.** Glassdoor shows 44 reviews, 84% recommend rate. The more significant data point is what happened between 2022 and 2024: when Yandex's Russian business was sold, Volozh retained a core nucleus of 850+ engineers who followed him through sanctions, redomicile, and a complete reset. People do not follow a manager through that kind of disruption unless they believe in him. That voluntary retention under extrem

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# NBIS — Earnings Review Q4 FY25 (GauchoRico)

> Date: 2026-02-22
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-25)
> Market Cap: ~$24.6B | EV/TTM Rev: ~47x | EV/FY26 Rev: ~7.8x
> wsm007 holds: 10.5% portfolio weight
> Prior GR writings on NBIS: None — first look

---

## Headline

**Holy smokes!!** Nebius just reported 547% YoY revenue growth in Q4 — and the forward guidance is even more jaw-dropping. $3.0-3.4B revenue guided for FY26 against $530m TTM. ARR of $7-9B targeted by year-end. EBITDA turned positive. I don't have prior writings on NBIS so this is a first look at the numbers — but these are among the most extraordinary metrics I've seen outside of NVDA's recent trajectory.

This is not a conventional growth stock analysis. Nebius is in a category of its own: a company that barely existed 18 months ago, is now doing $227m/quarter in revenue and guiding to $3.2B next year. Let's dig in.

---

## Atlas Baseline

Atlas rated NBIS Conviction 4/5 — "exceptional growth profile with meaningful execution risk." I mostly agree. Where I'll add nuance: the FCF trajectory matters enormously here, and the CapEx opacity is a more serious concern than Atlas rated it. I'll also note the deferred revenue + ARR combination as the most important leading indicator I've seen in a portfolio company in years.

---

## Six-Factor Scorecard

| Factor | Rating | GR Assessment |
|--------|--------|---------------|
| 1. Growth | **PASS++** | 547% YoY. Core AI grew ~830% YoY. FY25: $530m vs FY24: $93m. |
| 2. Trajectory | **Accelerating** | Dollar adds per quarter: +$15.7 → +$54.2 → +$41.0 → +$81.6. Sequential is accelerating meaningfully. |
| 3. Gross Margins | **High** | 70% [GAAP]. Core AI Adj EBITDA at 24% and expanding. |
| 4. Competitive Advantage | **Strong but #2** | Full-stack platform (not just raw GPU). NVIDIA strategic partnership. European first-mover. But CoreWeave is 10x larger. |
| 5. Relative Valuation | **Fair** | 47x TTM is misleading — 7.8x FY26 guided revenue is reasonable for this gro

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# NBIS — Q4 FY25 Earnings Review
**Bear (PaulWBryant) | February 22, 2026 | First Analysis**
**Headline: $227.7m revenue, +547% YoY. ARR $1.25B. First EBITDA-positive quarter. CapEx $2.056B in a single quarter.**

---

## Prior Beliefs

This is my first formal analysis of Nebius Group, so let me construct the prior honestly.

Entering Q4 FY25, a reasonable analyst would have held something like this:

- Q3 FY25 came in at $146.1m — a company that had been near-zero revenue a year prior. The growth rate was clearly extraordinary, but the question was whether $146m would compound or plateau.
- The AI cloud infrastructure buildout narrative was credible. The EU AI sovereignty angle was real. Arkady Volozh building something serious out of the Yandex wreckage — plausible.
- Key concerns going in: capital intensity was already alarming (Q3 CapEx $955.5m on $146m revenue), no clear customer concentration data, geopolitical overhang from Russian heritage, and whether Europe/Middle East would be large enough markets to justify the spend trajectory.
- The gross margin question was open. Could a GPU cloud business sustain margins above 60%? At 70%+ you have a real business. Below that, you're renting compute at thin spreads.
- Valuation was speculative — the company was priced on what FY26 could look like, not what FY25 had delivered.

My prior: interesting, capital-hungry, early. Watch the ARR trajectory and whether CapEx was being met with proportional revenue acceleration. If Q4 came in at $175-200m, thesis intact. Below that, concern. Above $200m, surprise.

---

## Updated Beliefs

The numbers have to match the theory. In this case, they did — mostly.

$227.7m is not just above my mental bar, it's meaningfully above it. +56% QoQ from $146m is an acceleration, not a deceleration. The core AI business at $214.2m (94% of revenue) is clean — this is not propped up by legacy operations.

What changed my thinking:

1. **ARR at $1.25B** on $227.7m quarterly revenue ($910m annua

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# NBIS — Nebius Group Q4 FY25 Earnings Review
*Saul Rosenthal | February 22, 2026*

## Verdict

**HOLD / ADD on weakness. Conviction: High.**

This is one of the most extraordinary growth stories I have ever seen. 547% year-over-year revenue growth. 830% Core AI growth. An ARR of $1.25 billion against a trailing quarterly revenue run rate of roughly $910 million annualized — meaning the business is already contracted well ahead of what it has reported. That is not a small thing! That is a massive thing!

But I have to be honest with myself here. This is not SaaS. This is capital-intensive AI infrastructure. And the capital intensity is eye-watering — $2.056 billion of CapEx in a single quarter. The company is burning cash at a ferocious rate even as revenues explode. That is the tension with Nebius, and I want to think through it carefully.

---

## Prior Beliefs / Updated Beliefs

**Prior:** Nebius is a high-conviction AI infrastructure play with explosive growth, but I had limited earnings history to evaluate management execution and capital discipline.

**Updated:** Management executed spectacularly on revenue. The ARR build ($1.25B exit), the deferred revenue pile ($1.58B — roughly 7x a quarter's revenue), and the positive Core AI EBITDA (24% margin) all show this is a real business converting contracted commitments into cash flow. FY26 guidance of $3.0-3.4B revenue and 40% Adj EBITDA margin, if achieved, would be transformational. My conviction has strengthened — but so has my attention to the CapEx/debt trajectory.

---

## Revenue — The Numbers Are Staggering

| | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | ~37 | ~79 | ~158 | 227.7 |
| YoY % | N/M | N/M | ~400% | 547% |
| QoQ % | — | +114% | +100% | +44% |
| Core AI Rev ($m) | — | — | — | 214.2 |
| Gross Margin [Non-GAAP] | — | — | — | 70% |
| Core AI EBITDA Margin | — | — | — | 24% |
| ARR ($B) | — | — | — | 1.25 |
| Deferred Revenue ($B) | — | — | — | 1.577 |

Look at that

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# NBIS — Earnings Review Q4 FY25 (StockNovice / Joe)

> Date: 2026-02-22
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-25)
> Market cap: ~$24.6B | EV/FY26 Rev: ~7.8x | Revenue growth: 547% YoY
> Prior coverage: None (first analysis)

---

The setup here is genuinely unusual. Nebius is a company I've had on my radar but never written about. No prior beliefs to test, which means I'm coming in fresh — and that cuts both ways.

## What Happened This Quarter

Revenue came in at $227.7m — up 547% year-over-year and 56% sequentially. Core AI was $214.2m, now 94% of total revenue. The ARR run-rate hit $1.25B, up from just $90m a year ago. That's a 14x increase in 12 months. Let that sink in.

And they flipped to positive EBITDA for the first time — $15m at the group level. Core AI Adj EBITDA came in at $51.8m on a 24% margin, expanding from 19.1% last quarter. Gross margin is 70% GAAP. These are genuinely good numbers.

The deferred revenue balance is $1.578B. That's seven to eight quarters of current run-rate revenue already pre-paid by customers. Combined with $1.25B ARR, Nebius has more contracted demand on the books than they've generated in their entire public history.

EPS came in at -$0.68 vs consensus of -$0.54. A miss. But the EPS number is being dragged by the CapEx ramp, not by a deteriorating business.

## The "Is" vs "Could Be" Scorecard

This is where it gets interesting — and where I have to be honest about both sides.

**What "is" delivering:**
- Revenue at $227.7m is real. That's not a forecast.
- ARR at $1.25B is contracted revenue. Customers have signed and pre-paid $1.578B.
- EBITDA positive. One quarter doesn't make a trend, but the direction is right.
- Core AI margins expanding (19% → 24%). Operating leverage starting to show.
- 7 data centers live, up from 1 a year ago. Infrastructure being deployed, not promised.

**What's "could be":**
- FY26 guidance of $3.0-3.4B. That's a 5-6x jump from FY25's $529m. Even with deferred revenue and ARR backing, that's an enormous step-

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# NBIS — Earnings Review Q4 FY25 (muji)

> Date: 2026-02-22
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-25)
> Long NBIS ~10.5% (wsm007 portfolio)
> Atlas baseline: Conviction 4/5, Fair valuation, Exceptional growth with execution risk

---

## Links

- [Q4 FY25 Press Release](https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial-results) — Feb 12, 2026
- Transcript: not yet published (expected ~2 weeks post-earnings)
- Atlas analysis: `~/.agents/skills/atlas/analyses/NBIS/NBIS_earnings-review_Q4_FY25.md`

---

## First Write-Up Note

No prior muji corpus on NBIS. This is the founding take. Grounding everything in the Q4 FY25 data.

---

## The Setup: What Is Nebius, Actually?

Here's the thing most people get wrong about NBIS. They look at "GPU cloud" and think commodity. That's the wrong lens.

Nebius is building a **full-stack AI cloud** — compute (H100/H200/Blackwell), storage, managed Kubernetes, managed PostgreSQL, MLOps tooling. When an AI startup lands on Nebius, they're not just renting GPUs. They're embedding into a platform. That's a **building block**, not a process tool. The customer's AI product is built on top of Nebius primitives. That's the architecture that scales.

Compare to CoreWeave — which is excellent but fundamentally bare-metal GPU leasing with a thin layer on top. CoreWeave is bigger (~10x GPU fleet) but Nebius is building something stickier. The Tavily acquisition (agentic search, ~$400m, Feb 2026) signals they want to own the application layer too. That's optionality I'm watching carefully.

**"Scale in platform"** check: YES. GPU infra expands naturally into managed services → MLOps → AI application primitives. The TAM expands with every layer added.

---

## The Numbers

### Revenue

| | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 | Q425 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 |
| Revenue ($m) | 50.9 | 105.1 | 146.1 | **227.7** |
| QoQ % | +44.6% | +106.5% | +39.0% | **+55.8%** ^^ |
| YoY % | +347% | +625% | +355% | **+547%** 

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# NBIS — Earnings Review Q4 FY25

> Date: 2026-02-25
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-25)
> Market cap: ~$24.6B | EV/FY26 Revenue: ~7.5x | ARR: $1.25B | Revenue growth: +547% YoY

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## Summary

When I first wrote about Nebius in January of last year, I called it "a bit of a leap in the dark" and confessed that applying my usual valuation methodology — EV/S against a growth cohort, PEG, FCF multiples — was essentially malpractice given where the company was in its development. That was an honest framing. What I said at the time was that the investment case rested on three pillars: Volozh's credibility as a builder, the certainty of AI infrastructure demand, and Nebius's ability to ramp capacity ahead of that demand. Thirteen months later, Q4 FY25 is the first quarter where I can say with some conviction that those pillars are not just intact — they are demonstrably performing. Group Adj EBITDA turned positive for the first time in the company's history at $15.0m (+6.6% margin). ARR hit $1.25B, blowing past the high end of guidance ($1.1B) by $150m, and this is not a coincidence — management has beaten ARR guidance on every single measurement since listing. Revenue re-accelerated QoQ to $227.7m (+56%), reversing the deceleration we saw in Q3. Active power jumped from 100MW to 170MW, 70% ahead of the stated target. And the most important new disclosure: FY26 CapEx guidance of $16B-$20B. That number reframes the entire investment case. It confirms that Nebius has contracted demand sufficient to justify deploying roughly five times FY25 CapEx in a single year. It also makes clear that FCF will be deeply negative through FY26, and that the economic payoff is a FY27+ story. Neither of those facts should be a surprise to anyone who read my original piece. The thesis is strengthening.

**Current position: 2,300 shares in the High Growth Portfolio. No position in the Premium Portfolio. I hold.**

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## Headline KPIs

- **Revenue Q4 FY25:** $227.7m | YoY +547% | QoQ +56% (re-accel

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