Investing analyses

# NVDA — Earnings Review Q3 FY26 (Atlas)

> Date: 2026-02-23
> Quarter: Q3 FY26 (three months ended October 26, 2025; reported November 19, 2025)
> Market cap: ~$3.4T | EV/TTM Rev: ~18x | Revenue growth: +62.5% YoY
> Note: Q4 FY26 earnings report due tomorrow, February 25, 2026.

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## Verdict

NVDA Q3 FY26 was one of the strongest quarters any company has ever reported — $57.0B revenue, largest QoQ dollar add in the company's history (+$10.3B), first YoY re-acceleration in seven quarters, and all-time highs on every P&L line. The Blackwell ramp is not just working, it's compressing: GB300 crossed over GB200 to ~67% of Blackwell mix in a single quarter. The one genuine uncertainty heading into FY27 is gross margin sustainability in the mid-70s against rising input costs — management has committed but hedged. With Q4 earnings tomorrow, this is effectively a pre-Q4 positioning analysis framed around Q3 results. **Conviction: 4/5.** Would be 5 if FY27 margin guidance were more concrete than "working to hold mid-70s."

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## Qualification Gate

| Criterion | Threshold | Actual | Status |
|-----------|-----------|--------|--------|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% (>40% preferred) | +62.5% | Pass |
| Gross margin | >60% (>70% preferred) | 73.4% GAAP / 73.6% Non-GAAP | Pass |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $57.0B | Pass |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 12 quarters (35 in DB) | Pass |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | Declining — buybacks reducing count | Pass |
| GAAP profitability trajectory | Improving or positive | $31.9B net income, 56% net margin | Pass |

**Gate result: PASS (6/6)**

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## Six-Factor Score

| Factor | Rating | Detail |
|--------|--------|--------|
| Growth | Strong | +62.5% YoY; +22.0% QoQ. First YoY re-acceleration in 7 quarters. Largest QoQ dollar add in company history (+$10.3B). |
| Trajectory | Accelerating | YoY: 55.6% → 62.5% (+6.9pp). QoQ: +6.1% → +22.0% (+15.9pp). Reversal of two consecutive QoQ decelerations. Q4 guide implies +65% Yo

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# NVDA — GTC 2026 Keynote Reaction
**Date:** 2026-03-17 | **WSM** | **Long NVDA, 5-7%**

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## Verdict

GTC reinforced every pillar of the thesis and added new ones. $1 trillion forward pipeline through 2027, Vera Rubin full-stack platform (7 chips, 5 rack systems), Feynman generation roadmapped, Groq 3 LPU partially neutralising ASIC threat, AWS committing 1M+ GPUs, Azure first on Vera Rubin NVL72, Physical AI going from slideware to revenue (Uber robotaxi, BYD/Hyundai L4, J&J surgical). Thesis strengthening. No trigger changes.

---

## Key Announcements & WSM Assessment

### 1. $1 Trillion Forward Pipeline (2025-2027)

Jensen: purchase orders between Blackwell and Vera Rubin to reach "at least $1 trillion in revenue" from 2025 through 2027. Computing demand increased "1 million times over the last few years."

**Assessment:** At $272B run-rate, this implies sustained growth well above current trajectory. Market pricing ~$350-400B for FY28 looks conservative against this pipeline. Primary risk: pipeline ≠ guaranteed revenue (cancellations, deferrals possible). But hyperscaler commitments (AWS 1M+ GPUs, Azure first on VR NVL72) suggest this is hard demand, not aspirational.

### 2. Vera Rubin Platform — Full Stack

Seven chips, five rack-scale systems, one supercomputer. Vera CPU + BlueField-4 STX storage architecture. Not just a GPU — a complete architecture with switching costs baked in.

**Assessment:** Classic NVIDIA strategy. Sell the stack, not the chip. Each component increases lock-in. Vera Rubin DSX AI Factory reference design (simulate before deploying) is brilliant — customers design around NVIDIA before spending a dollar.

### 3. Feynman Generation Roadmapped

Rosa CPU (named for Rosalind Franklin), LP40 next-gen LPU, BlueField-5, CX10, optical scale-out via Kyber.

**Assessment:** Three generations deep of roadmap visibility. Competitors are matching Blackwell while NVIDIA shows Vera Rubin's successor. Innovation velocity = the moat. Colette's point 

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# NVIDIA — Earnings Review, Q3 FY26
**Philip A. Fisher | February 22, 2026**
*Q3 FY26 ended October 27, 2025. Earnings reported November 19, 2025.*

---

## Thesis Going In

NVIDIA had no prior Phil Fisher analysis on record. I approach this company fresh, though I have the benefit of Atlas's structured baseline, which I will engage with directly where my framework diverges or adds nuance. Atlas assigned Conviction 4/5 and found all six factors bullish. My task is not to repeat that verdict but to examine NVIDIA through the Fifteen Points — with particular attention to management character, R&D effectiveness, and whether this company is "fortunate because it is able" or merely fortunate because of the moment.

---

## Scuttlebutt Findings

Before any financial number deserves consideration, I must first walk the figurative factory floor. I have gathered intelligence across the seven categories:

### 1. Customer Sentiment
Enterprise adoption is crossing from pilot to production. CIO Dive reports NVIDIA shows "strong AI demand as enterprises grapple with ROI" — a phrase that captures both the positive and the cautionary note. Cloud GPU capacity is sold out. On the earnings call, Colette Kress cited concrete customer testimonials: Unilever accelerating content creation by 2x and cutting costs by 550%; Salesforce engineering teams reporting 30%+ productivity gains after adopting Cursor (CUDA-accelerated). These are not anonymous testimonials — they are named enterprises with measurable claims. By 2026, the industry is, as multiple sources describe, "crossing the chasm from pilot to production." The ROI question is real, but the directional evidence favors NVIDIA.

**Source:** [CIO Dive — NVIDIA earnings enterprise sentiment](https://www.ciodive.com/news/nvidia-earnings-show-strong-ai-demand/806100/)

### 2. Employee Sentiment
NVIDIA ranks No. 1 on Glassdoor's Best-Led Companies Awards for 2025. CEO Jensen Huang holds a 98% approval rating. The overall company rating is 

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# NVDA -- GTC 2026 Conference Review (GauchoRico)

> Date: 2026-03-17
> Event: NVIDIA GTC 2026, SAP Center, San Jose (March 16-19, 2026; keynote March 16)
> Position: 26.6% (7.12% LEAPS, 19.48% shares) -- largest position
> Prior thesis: Intact (strengthening) -- sole arms dealer for the AI buildout
> Stock: ~$183-185 (trading range $180-$189 post-keynote)

---

## Headline

Holy smokes!! Jensen just told us NVIDIA expects $1 trillion in purchase orders between Blackwell and Vera Rubin through 2027. One. Trillion. Dollars. And then he backed it up with the most impressive product roadmap I have ever seen from any technology company -- seven new chips, five rack architectures, and a clear line of sight to Feynman in 2028. This was not a "next quarter" keynote. This was Jensen planting a flag for the next decade. If you walked into GTC 2026 wondering whether the AI infrastructure buildout is slowing down, you walked out knowing it's accelerating.

---

## The Product Stack -- This Is the Moat

Let me lay out what was announced, because the breadth is staggering:

| Product | What It Is | Key Spec | Timeline |
|---------|-----------|----------|----------|
| Vera Rubin NVL72 | 72 Rubin GPUs + 36 Vera CPUs | 10x inference throughput/watt vs Blackwell, 1/10th token cost | H2 CY2026 samples, early 2027 production |
| Vera CPU Rack | 256 Vera CPUs | 2x efficiency for RL/agentic workloads | 2026-2027 |
| Groq 3 LPX Rack | 256 LPUs (from Groq acquisition) | 128GB on-chip SRAM, 35x inference throughput/MW | Q3 2026 shipping |
| BlueField-4 STX | AI-native storage rack | 5x token throughput, 4x energy efficiency | 2026-2027 |
| Spectrum-6 SPX | First co-packaged optics Ethernet switch | Production now | Shipping |
| Rubin Ultra / Kyber | 144 GPUs in vertical Kyber rack | 100 PFLOPS FP4, 1TB HBM4e per GPU, single NVLink domain | 2027 |
| Feynman | Next-gen platform | New GPU, LPU, Rosa CPU, BF-5 | On track 2028 |

**Total platform capacity: 3.6 exaflops compute, 260 TB/s NVLink 

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# NVDA — Earnings Review Q4 FY26 (Quarter Ending January 2026)

**Date:** 2026-03-01
**Type:** Earnings Review
**Quarter:** Q4 FY26

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## Prior Beliefs / Updated Beliefs

In my Q3 FY26 review, I wrote: "I'd want to see Q4 FY26 results confirm Q1 FY27 guide of ~$75B+. If that materializes, the FY27 growth trajectory is real." That was the test. Let me grade it.

| Dimension | Prior Belief | Actual | Verdict |
|-----------|-------------|--------|---------|
| Revenue | $65B (guided) | $68,127M | Beat by $3.1B / +4.8% |
| YoY growth | ~65-70% (decelerating from 62.5%) | 73.2% | Acceleration — did not expect this |
| Non-GAAP GM | 75.0% (guided) | 75.2% | Beat — mid-70s recovery complete |
| GAAP GM | ~74.5% | 75.0% | Better than expected |
| Data Center | $58-60B | $62,314M | Strong beat |
| Networking | ~$9B | $10,980M (+263% YoY) | Massive beat |
| FCF | ~$25B | $34,902M | Blowout — 51.2% margin |
| Q1 FY27 guide | $75B+ (my threshold) | $78,000M | Exceeded my bar by $3B |
| GM guide Q1 FY27 | Mid-70s | 75.0% Non-GAAP | Confirmed |

**Bottom line:** Every dimension exceeded my prior beliefs, including the specific $75B Q1 guide threshold I set as the condition for increased conviction. The growth re-accelerated — Q2 FY26 was +55.6%, Q3 +62.5%, Q4 +73.2% — and the Q1 FY27 guide implies further acceleration to ~+77% YoY. This is not a business that's decelerating. The numbers match the theory, and then some.

---

## Multi-Quarter Financial Table

| | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27E |
| | Apr-25 | Jul-25 | Oct-25 | Jan-26 | Apr-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 44,062 | 46,743 | 57,006 | 68,127 | ~78,000 |
| YoY Growth | 69.2% | 55.6% | 62.5% | 73.2% | ~77% |
| QoQ Growth | +12.0% | +6.1% | +22.0% | +19.5% | ~14.5% |
| Non-GAAP GM | 61.0% | 72.7% | 73.6% | 75.2% | 75.0%E |
| GAAP GM | 60.5% | 72.4% | 73.4% | 75.0% | 74.9%E |
| GAAP Op Margin | 49.1% | 60.8% | 63.2% | 65.0% | — |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 52.8% | 64.5% | 66.2% | 67.7% | — |

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# NVDA — Q3 FY26 Earnings Review (Saul)

> Date: 2026-02-22
> Quarter: Q3 FY26 (Oct-25), reported 2025-11-19
> Atlas baseline: NVDA_earnings-review_Q3_FY26.md — read and incorporated

---

## Verdict

THAT IS SUCH A PREPOSTEROUS RESULT! Really, really, crazy numbers!

$57 billion in a single quarter. Up 62.5% year over year, with a sequential jump of $10.3 billion — the largest quarterly revenue add in NVIDIA's history. And then they guided $65 billion for next quarter, implying yet another acceleration to 65% YoY. The bear thesis — that NVIDIA was decelerating into irrelevance — was just eviscerated by the numbers.

This is not a company I want to sell. This is a company doing things I've never seen before in my investing career.

**Thesis: Strengthening. Position: Hold/Add on weakness.**

---

## Revenue Trajectory — The Only Thing That Matters

Let me be absolutely clear about what just happened with this revenue trajectory. The bears had a story: deceleration. And they were right for a while! Look at this:

| | Q2 FY24 | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | **Q3 FY26** |
| | Jul-23 | Oct-23 | Jan-24 | Apr-24 | Jul-24 | Oct-24 | Jan-25 | Apr-25 | Jul-25 | **Oct-25** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 13,507 | 18,120 | 22,103 | 26,044 | 30,040 | 35,082 | 39,331 | 44,062 | 46,743 | **57,006** |
| YoY % | 101.5% | 205.5% | 265.3% | 262.1% | 122.4% | 93.6% | 77.9% | 69.2% | 55.6% | **62.5%** |
| QoQ % | 87.8% | 34.2% | 22.0% | 17.8% | 15.3% | 16.8% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 6.1% | **22.0%** |
| GM [NG] | — | — | — | — | — | 75.0% | — | — | 72.7% | **73.6%** |
| FCF ($m) | 6,048 | 7,042 | 11,246 | 14,936 | 13,483 | 16,787 | 15,519 | 26,135 | 13,450 | **22,089** |

See what happened? YoY growth went from 265% at the peak down to 55.6% in Q2 FY26. The bears said: "This is over. Deceleration." But what does it mean when a company drops from 265% to 56%? It means they were lapping the most extraordinary ramp

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# NVDA — Morgan Stanley TMT Conference Reaction (StockNovice/Joe)

> Date: 2026-03-05
> Event: Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference (March 4, 2026)
> Context: Jensen Huang fireside chat — follow-up to Q4 FY26 earnings (Feb 25)

---

## The Conference in Plain English

Jensen did his fireside chat at the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference, and the headline everyone grabbed was the OpenAI/Anthropic investment pullback. The $30B OpenAI investment "might be the last." The $10B Anthropic stake "probably the last as well." The rumored $100B OpenAI mega-deal? "Probably not in the cards" — because both companies are heading to IPO.

The media is overplaying this. NVIDIA doesn't need equity stakes in these companies. Jensen said it: "If we provide the compute capacity they need, which we're ramping up hard... the revenues will more than follow." The investment was a strategic handshake. The real relationship is commercial — GPU sales, cloud compute, infrastructure deals. That hasn't changed.

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## What Actually Matters

**1. Sovereign AI hit $30B+ in FY26 — tripled YoY.**
Countries building their own AI infrastructure: Canada, France, Netherlands, Singapore, UK leading. This is a durable demand layer independent of hyperscaler CapEx cycles. Diversification I hadn't fully appreciated in the Q3 review.

**2. Agentic AI framed as the current inflection.**
Training → inference → agentic → physical AI. Agentic is more compute-intensive than simple inference — every reasoning step is another forward pass. More tokens = more GPUs. Good for NVIDIA's compute narrative.

**3. Physical AI at $6B+ in FY26.**
Robotaxis (Waymo, Tesla, Uber, WeRide, Zoox), manufacturing, robotics. Small relative to $300B+ Data Center run rate, but represents entirely new TAM.

**4. Morgan Stanley reinstated NVDA as top semi pick.**
Joseph Moore's call around the conference. After Q4 FY26 — $68.1B revenue (beat $66.2B consensus), +73% YoY, Data Center $62.3B — hard to argue against execution.

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# NVDA — Q3 FY26 Earnings Review (muji)

> Quarter: Q3 FY26 (Oct-25), reported 2025-11-19
> Written: 2026-02-22 (pre-Q4 FY26 earnings, Feb 25)
> Long NVDA: 0% (watchlist — not in current wsm portfolio)
> Atlas baseline: `~/.agents/skills/atlas/analyses/NVDA/NVDA_earnings-review_Q3_FY26.md`

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## Links

- [NVIDIA Newsroom — Q3 FY26 PR](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com)
- [Motley Fool Transcript — Q3 FY26](https://www.fool.com) (2025-11-19)
- [CFO Commentary PDF](https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/)

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## The Numbers

| | Q4 FY23 | Q1 FY24 | Q2 FY24 | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 |
| | Jan-23 | Apr-23 | Jul-23 | Oct-23 | Jan-24 | Apr-24 | Jul-24 | Oct-24 | Jan-25 | Apr-25 | Jul-25 | Oct-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 6,051 | 7,192 | 13,507 | 18,120 | 22,103 | 26,044 | 30,040 | 35,082 | 39,331 | 44,062 | 46,743 | 57,006 |
| YoY % | -20.8% | -13.2% | 101.5% | 205.5% | 265.3% | 262.1% | 122.4% | 93.6% | 77.9% | 69.2% | 55.6% | **62.5% ^^** |
| QoQ % | 2.0% | 18.9% | 87.8% | 34.2% | 22.0% | 17.8% | 15.3% | 16.8% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 6.1% | **+22.0% !!** |
| GM [GAAP] | 63.3% | 64.6% | 70.1% | 74.0% | 76.0% | 78.4% | 75.1% | 74.6% | 73.0% | 60.5%* | 72.4% | **73.4%** |
| GM [Non-GAAP] | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 75.0% | — | 70.6%* | 75.7% | **73.6%** |
| Op Margin [GAAP] | 20.8% | 29.8% | 50.3% | 57.5% | 61.6% | 64.9% | 62.1% | 62.3% | 61.1% | 49.1%* | 60.8% | **63.2%** |
| Net Margin [GAAP] | 23.4% | 28.4% | 45.8% | 51.0% | 55.6% | 57.1% | 55.3% | 55.0% | 56.2% | 42.6%* | 56.5% | **56.0%** |
| FCF ($m) | 1,736 | 2,643 | 6,048 | 7,042 | 11,246 | 14,936 | 13,483 | 16,787 | 15,519 | 26,135 | 13,450 | **22,089** |
| DC Revenue ($m) | 3,616 | 4,284 | 10,323 | 14,514 | 18,404 | 22,563 | 26,272 | 30,771 | 35,580 | 39,112 | 41,096 | **51,215** |

*Q1 FY26 margins depressed by $4.5B H20 inventory charge. Normalized [Non-GAAP] GM was ~70.6%.

**Revenue trajectory: -20.8% → 

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# NVIDIA (NVDA) — Stock Analysis

**Bert Hochfeld | TickerTarget | April 1, 2026**

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## Summary

NVIDIA is the most important company in the AI infrastructure buildout and arguably the most important technology company in the world right now. FY26 revenue reached $215.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year, with free cash flow of $96.6 billion — a 44.7% FCF margin on a hardware-centric business model that rivals the best software companies ever built. The Q4 FY26 quarter was a blowout: $68.1 billion in revenue, 75.2% non-GAAP gross margin, and $34.9 billion in free cash flow. The Q1 FY27 guide of $78 billion implies nearly 79% year-over-year growth, with consensus estimates for FY27 revenue in the $365-370 billion range. At a forward P/E of approximately 21X on FY27 consensus estimates, the PEG ratio is 0.30X — a level I would describe as extraordinary for any company, let alone one generating nearly $100 billion in annual free cash flow. I haven't covered NVIDIA in the newsletter previously — my AI infrastructure exposure has been through Nebius, Pure Storage, and Arista — but applying my framework, the valuation is genuinely attractive on a growth-adjusted basis, and the competitive position is durable enough to warrant serious consideration. This is a company where the numbers speak for themselves, and the numbers are unlike anything I have encountered in my career.

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## Business Overview

NVIDIA's business has undergone a transformation that is, in the literal sense, unprecedented. Three years ago, this was a company that did $27 billion in annual revenue, roughly evenly split between gaming and data center. Today it is a $216 billion annual revenue company with 91.5% of its revenue coming from Data Center — the picks-and-shovels provider for the entire AI infrastructure buildout that I have written about extensively.

The core competitive asset is not any single GPU architecture. It is the CUDA software ecosystem — over a decade of developer tools, libraries,

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