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2026-05-01 · stock-analysis · OMDA passes the qualification gate cleanly and trades at a structural discount to its growth profile · Conviction 4/5
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# OMDA — Stock Analysis (Atlas)
> Date: 2026-05-01
> Quarter analyzed: Q4 FY2025 (Dec-25); Q1 FY2026 reports May 7, 2026
> Market cap: ~$0.79B | EV: ~$0.57B | EV/TTM Rev: ~0.55x | EV/FY26 Rev: ~1.8x | Revenue growth: +58.1% Q4 YoY, +53.2% FY
## Verdict
OMDA passes the qualification gate cleanly and trades at a structural discount to its growth profile. Q4 FY25 marks a triple inflection: revenue re-acceleration (49.5% → 58.1% YoY), first GAAP-profitable quarter, and an EBITDA milestone delivered "a year ahead" of the IPO roadshow. At ~2.5x P/S and 0.55x EV/TTM revenue with a 53% growth rate and a Rule of 40 score of ~57, the market is paying SaaS-laggard prices for a hyper-growth chronic-disease platform — a mispricing I attribute to post-IPO drift, the headline +22% FY26 guidance optic, and unresolved GLP-1 substitution fear. The conservative FY26 guide explicitly excludes three real upside levers (GLP-1 prescribing, FlexCare, cholesterol). **Conviction: 4/5** — a high-quality, asymmetric long with the May 7 print as the proximate catalyst.
## Qualification Gate
| Criterion | Threshold | OMDA Q4 FY25 | Pass? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% (>40% preferred) | +58.1% Q (FY +53.2%) | **Pass — strong** |
| Gross margin | >60% (>70% preferred) | 70.8% GAAP / 72.6% Non-GAAP | **Pass — strong** |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $75.8M | **Pass** |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 8 quarters (IPO Jun-25) | **Pass** |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | IPO-distorted; clean post-IPO base ~64M | **N/A (IPO yr)** |
| GAAP profitability trajectory | Improving / positive | Op margin -14.8% → +4.3% YoY; first GAAP-net-income quarter | **Pass — inflecting** |
All gating criteria pass. Dilution is not a clean comparable in the IPO year; share count went 8M (private) → 22M Q2 → 57.7M Q3 → 63.9M Q4 due to IPO conversion, not organic dilution.
## Six-Factor Score
| Factor | Rating | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | **Strong** | +58.1% Q4 YoY, +53.2% FY25; memb
*…truncated*
Rolling earnings (raw)
# OMDA — Earnings Rolling Summary (4-Quarter Window)
> Last updated: 2026-05-01 by atlas
> Window: Q1 FY25 (Mar-25) → Q4 FY25 (Dec-25)
> Status: First _ROLLING.md for OMDA. IPO Jun-2025; Q3 FY25 was first post-IPO earnings call.
## Trajectory Sentence
OMDA exited FY2025 with a triple inflection: revenue re-acceleration to +58% YoY, first GAAP-profitable quarter, and Adjusted EBITDA delivered "a year ahead" of IPO roadshow plan — while the FY2026 guide of +22% deliberately excludes three explicit upside levers (GLP-1 prescribing, GLP-1 FlexCare, cholesterol program).
## Financial Grid (4-Quarter Window)
| Metric | Q1 FY25 (Mar-25) | Q2 FY25 (Jun-25) | Q3 FY25 (Sep-25) | Q4 FY25 (Dec-25) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 54.9 | 61.4 | 68.0 | **75.8** | Re-accel in Q4 |
| YoY % | +56.4% | +49.0% | +49.5% | **+58.1%** | U-shaped, exiting at peak |
| QoQ % | +14.4% | +11.8% | +10.7% | +11.5% | Stabilized 10-12% |
| GM [GAAP] | 58.1% | 65.7% | 66.3% | **70.8%** | Record; +12.7pp YoY |
| GM [Non-GAAP] | 60.3% | 67.7% | 68.2% | **72.6%** | Record |
| Op Margin [GAAP] | -15.3% | -7.0% | -3.7% | **+4.3%** | First positive — Q4 inflection |
| Adj EBITDA Margin | n/a | -0.3% | +3.5% | **+11.2%** | Record |
| Net Margin [GAAP] | -17.3% | -8.6% | -4.7% | **+6.8%** | First positive |
| EPS [GAAP] | n/a | -0.24 | -0.06 | **+0.08** | First positive |
| FCF ($m) | n/a | n/a | +8.2 | **+20.0** | Record |
| FCF Margin | n/a | n/a | +12.1% | **+26.4%** | Record |
| Total Members (k) | n/a | 752 | 831 | 886 | +55% YoY |
**FY25 Totals:** Revenue $260.2M (+53.2% YoY); GAAP op loss -$12.0M (-4.6%); Adj EBITDA +$6.5M (+2.5%); FCF +$12.4M (4.8%); Members 886K (+55%).
## Promise Tracker
| When Made | Promise | Quarter Tested | Outcome | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-IPO roadshow (Jun-25) | EBITDA profitability by FY2026 | FY25 | FY25 Adj EBITDA +$6.5M (+2.5% margin) | **Met early — a year ahead** |
| Pre-IPO roadshow (Jun-25) | Path to positive operating cash flow | FY25 | FY25 OCF +$18.3M (vs FY24 -$34.2M) | **Met early** |
| Pre-IPO roadshow (Jun-25) | Path to positive FCF | FY25 | FY25 FCF +$12.4M (vs FY24 -$38M) | **Met early** |
| Q2 FY25 PR (Aug-25) | FY25 revenue $235-241M | FY25 | $260.2M actual | **Beat by $19-25M (+8-11% vs mid)** |
| Q2 FY25 PR (Aug-25) | FY25 Adj EBITDA $(9)-(5)M | FY25 | +$6.5M actual | **Beat high end by $11.5M+** |
| Q3 FY25 PR (Nov-25) | FY25 revenue $251.5-254.5M (raised) | FY25 | $260.2M actual | **Beat raised mid by ~$7M (+2.8%)** |
| Q3 FY25 PR (Nov-25) | FY25 Adj EBITDA $(2)M-breakeven (raised) | FY25 | +$6.5M actual | **Beat high end by $6.5M+** |
| Q4 FY25 (Mar-26) | FY26 revenue $312-322M | FY26 | TBD (Q1 May 7) | **Open — pending** |
| Q4 FY25 (Mar-26) | FY26 Adj EBITDA $7-15M | FY26 | TBD | **Open — pending** |
| Q4 FY25 (Mar-26) | GLP-1 prescribing rollout (FY26 upside, not in baseline) | FY26 | TBD | **Open — qualitative** |
| Q4 FY25 (Mar-26) | Cholesterol program scaling (FY26 upside) | FY26 | TBD; pilot already in 300K+ employee customer | **In progress** |
| Q4 FY25 (Mar-26) | GLP-1 FlexCare expansion (FY26 upside) | FY26 | TBD | **Open** |
**Track record summary:** 7 of 7 testable commitments since IPO have been met or beaten, several materially. Management credibility is high entering FY26.
## Language Shift Monitor
| Theme | Q3 FY25 (Nov-25) | Q4 FY25 (Mar-26) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Profitability tone | First positive Adj EBITDA quarter — measured | "A year ahead of IPO roadshow projections" — confident, repeated 2x | **Strengthening** |
| Growth tone | "Business is scaling healthily" (per SA coverage) | "Re-acceleration" implicit; +58% YoY, "nearly 2x prior-year Q4 net adds" | **Strengthening** |
| Guidance posture | Raised FY25 mid-year and full-year | "Conservative baseline" repeated 3x; explicit upside levers excluded | **Hedging** |
| GLP-1 framing | Companion care thesis | Now-prescribing + FlexCare; outcomes data (84% persistence, 0.8% post-disc regain) anchored | **Strengthening — operational** |
| Competitive tone | n/a (first post-IPO call) | "Crowded digital health space" acknowledged; differentiation via "decade of clinical outcomes" | **Aware, confident** |
| Margin tone | EBITDA inflection narrative | "40% incremental EBITDA conversion" formula-stated 2x; operating leverage explicit | **Strengthening** |
## Analyst Concern Tracker
| Concern | First Raised | Current Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY26 specific guidance | Q4 FY25 call | **Active — deflected** | Mgmt: "annual guidance only" |
| Member retention / churn rate | Pre-IPO + Q4 FY25 | **Active — undisclosed** | No NRR, no cohort persistence, no churn rate |
| Unit economics (CAC/LTV) | Q4 FY25 call | **Active — proxy answered** | Mgmt redirected to "enrollment efficiency +24% YoY without paid-media scaling" |
| GLP-1 substitution risk | Pre-IPO; SA bear theses | **Active — partial data** | 84% persistence, 0.8% regain (n=95). PREDICTS RCT pending |
| FY26 gross margin trajectory | Q4 FY25 call | **Active — not disclosed** | Mgmt redirected to EBITDA conversion |
| PBM concentration risk | SA bear thesis | **Active — top-2 alignment** | Power asymmetry; reliance on PBMs for distribution |
| Privacy/data regulation | SA bear thesis | **Latent — minimal discussion** | Mgmt: "core operational requirement" |
| Crowded competitive field | Q4 FY25 call | **Active — addressed** | Mgmt: differentiated by 14-yr clinical outcomes data |
| Enterprise multi-condition adoption | Q4 FY25 call | **Resolving — bullish** | Mgmt: "accelerating" cross-sell among existing |
## Quarter-by-Quarter Verdict
| Quarter | Verdict |
|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 (Mar-25) | **Pre-IPO baseline.** $54.9M / +56.4% YoY. Strong momentum into June IPO. Pre-IPO so EPS pre-conversion not comparable. |
| Q2 FY25 (Jun-25) | **IPO quarter.** $61.4M / +49.0% YoY. Adj EBITDA -0.3% — at breakeven. IPO priced $19 (Jun 6); +21% Day 1. Term loan repayment in progress. |
| Q3 FY25 (Sep-2