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2026-02-25 · earnings-review · Palantir delivered the best quarter in its public history across nearly every measurable dimension: 70% YoY revenue growth · Conviction 3/5
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# PLTR — Earnings Review Q4 FY25 (Atlas)
> Date: 2026-02-23
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec 31, 2025)
> Market cap: ~$320B | EV: ~$313B | EV/TTM Rev: ~70x | Revenue growth: +70% YoY
---
## Verdict
Palantir delivered the best quarter in its public history across nearly every measurable dimension: 70% YoY revenue growth (accelerating from 63%, fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration), 84.7% gross margin (ATH), 40.9% GAAP operating margin (ATH), Rule of 40 of 127, and TCV of $4.26B — 3.0x quarterly revenue — pointing to continued acceleration. FY26 guidance of +61% growth at $7.19B midpoint beat consensus by ~$290M and was issued by management that has beaten every quarter in FY25. The business earns 5/5. The stock at ~70x TTM revenue earns 1/5. **Overall conviction: 3/5** — existing holders should hold without question; new positions require accepting extreme valuation risk for a company that is operationally earning it.
---
## Qualification Gate
| Criterion | Threshold | Actual | Pass? |
|-----------|-----------|--------|-------|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% (>40% preferred) | 70.0% | PASS |
| Gross margin | >60% (>70% preferred) | 84.7% GAAP | PASS |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $1,407M | PASS |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 12+ quarters | PASS |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | ~14% gross SBC / ~5% net (est. after buybacks) | PASS |
| GAAP profitability trajectory | Improving or positive | GAAP op margin 0.8% → 40.9% over 8Q | PASS |
**Gate: PASS — all six criteria met.**
---
## Six-Factor Score
| Factor | Rating | Detail |
|--------|--------|--------|
| Growth | **Strong** | 70% YoY — all-time high. Accelerating from 39%/48%/63% in prior three quarters. |
| Trajectory | **Accelerating** | Q1→Q2→Q3→Q4 FY25: 39% → 48% → 63% → 70% YoY. Sequential adds: $56M → $120M → $177M → $226M. Pure inflection. |
| Margins | **High** | 84.7% gross (ATH), 40.9% GAAP op (ATH), 56.8% Non-GAAP op (ATH), 56.2% FCF margin. Every line at record. |
| Dominance | **Dominant*
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wsmStrong
2026-03-15 · earnings-review · The growth is real, the acceleration is real, and the operating leverage is real
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# PLTR — Earnings Review Q4 FY25
> wsm007 | 2026-02-22 | Q4 FY25 (Dec-25) | Not Long PLTR
---
## Verdict
The growth is real, the acceleration is real, and the operating leverage is real. This is an extraordinary business. The problem is the valuation — 70x TTM revenue, ~200x GAAP P/E — which is pricing in years of perfection that may or may not materialise. I do not own PLTR. I understand why people do, but I need a better entry. **Watch, don't buy at current prices.**
---
## The Numbers
| | Q124 (Mar-24) | Q224 (Jun-24) | Q324 (Sep-24) | Q125 (Mar-25) | Q225 (Jun-25) | Q325 (Sep-25) | Q425 (Dec-25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 634 | 678 | 726 | 884 | 1,004 | 1,181 | 1,407 |
| QoQ % | — | 6.9% | 7.0% | — | 13.5% | 17.7% | **19.1%** |
| YoY % | 20.8% | 27.2% | 30.0% | 39.4% | 48.0% | 62.8% | **70.0%** |
| Incr Rev ($m) | — | 44 | 47 | — | 120 | 177 | **226** |
| Gross Margin [GAAP] | 81.7% | 82.0% | 79.8% | 80.4% | 81.5% | 82.4% | ~81% |
| Adj Op Margin [Non-GAAP] | 12.8% | 15.5% | 15.6% | 19.9% | 26.8% | 33.3% | **57.0%** |
| GAAP Op Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | **41.0%** |
| GAAP Net Margin | 16.6% | 19.8% | 19.8% | 24.2% | 32.5% | 40.3% | **43.0%** |
| EPS [Non-GAAP] | $0.04 | $0.06 | $0.06 | $0.08 | $0.13 | $0.18 | **$0.25** |
| FCF ($m) | — | — | — | — | — | — | **791** |
| FCF Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — | **56%** |
**FY2025 full year:** Revenue $4,475M (+56% YoY) | Adj Op Income $2,254M (50% margin) | GAAP Net Income $1,625M (36% margin) | Adj FCF $2,270M (51% margin) | SBC ~$640M (14% of rev)
---
## Revenue Trajectory — The Key Read
| Quarter | YoY % | QoQ % | Sequential Add ($m) |
|---------|--------|--------|---------------------|
| Q1 FY25 | 39.4% | — | — |
| Q2 FY25 | 48.0% | 13.5% | 120 |
| Q3 FY25 | 62.8% | 17.7% | 177 |
| Q4 FY25 | **70.0%** | **19.1%** | **226** |
Four consecutive quarters of accelerating growth — both YoY and QoQ. Each sequential add is larger than the prior. $226M added in Q4 alone. At this
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# Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — Earnings Review Q4 FY25
**Analyst:** Philip A. Fisher | **Date:** 2026-02-22 | **Quarter:** Q4 FY25 (Dec-25)
**Task:** Earnings Review | **Prior Phil analysis:** None (first analysis)
---
## Atlas Baseline
Atlas scored this a **Conviction 3** — extraordinary business at extraordinary price. Six-factor table was strong: Growth (Strong), Trajectory (Accelerating), Margins (High), Dominance (Dominant), Valuation (Rich), Special (Present). I read Atlas's full analysis before forming my own views. My assessment agrees on the business quality and diverges — productively — on how to frame the management dimension and the growth arc durability question.
---
## Scuttlebutt Findings
The scuttlebutt method demands I build the picture from the ground up — from those closest to the business before drawing conclusions from the numbers. I conducted seven categories of inquiry.
### Customers
The evidence of customer expansion is striking. Palantir's AIP bootcamp model — five-day intensive engagements converting skeptics to committed production deployments — has produced documented expansions of 5x (Fortune 500 industrial) and $12M ACV contracts from Fortune 100 retailers beginning as pilots. Chief Revenue Officer Ryan Taylor noted contracts quadrupling or quintupling. Over 1,300 bootcamps completed; conversion rates described as accelerating. One Gartner reviewer described AIP as "a transformative step for our organization's AI-driven decision-making." The pattern one sees across sources is not marketing — it is operational validation. ([Palantir IR - AIPCon 8](https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2025/A-New-Set-of-Palantir-Customers-Takes-the-Spotlight-at-AIPCon-8/), [GTM Foundry](https://www.gtmfoundry.vc/p/palantirs-bootcamp-gtm-strategy), [Constellation Research](https://www.constellationr.com/blog-news/insights/palantirs-commercial-business-scales-help-ai-boot-camps))
### Employees
Glassdoor reflects the tension inherent in a mis
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Preview
# PLTR — Earnings Review Q4 FY25 (GauchoRico)
> Date: 2026-02-22
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-25)
> Revenue: $1,407M | YoY: +70% | Adj Op Margin: 57% | FCF: $791M (56%)
> Market cap: ~$320B | EV/TTM Rev: ~70x | Position: None (watchlist)
---
## Headline
Holy smokes!! — the numbers are extraordinary. Revenue accelerating to 70% YoY, adj op margins exploding to 57% from 33% the prior quarter, FCF at 56%, Rule of 40 at 127%. By every growth metric I care about, this is an elite quarter from an elite company. The business is operating at a level I've rarely seen.
But I don't own PLTR. And after looking at this quarter carefully, I still don't see a way in at current prices. At 70x EV/TTM Revenue, this stock is pricing in years of near-flawless execution. The numbers deserve a standing ovation. The valuation demands extreme caution.
We will see what happens...
---
## Six-Factor Framework
| Factor | Rating | Detail |
|--------|--------|--------|
| **1. Revenue Growth >40%** | ✅ PASS | 70% YoY — accelerating, not decelerating |
| **2. Trajectory** | ✅ ACCELERATING | 39% → 48% → 63% → 70% YoY. Sequential adds: $120M → $177M → $226M. Each quarter bigger than the last. |
| **3. Gross Margins** | ✅ HIGH | ~81% GAAP — consistently high. Enables everything else. |
| **4. Competitive Dominance** | ✅ STRONG | "n of 1" in ontology-based enterprise AI at scale. AIP bootcamp model creates switching costs. No direct competitor at this level. |
| **5. Relative Valuation** | ❌ EXTREME | 70x EV/TTM Rev, 138x EV/TTM FCF. Far beyond anything in my CRM Case Study history. Even the most richly valued periods for CRM were ~15-20x EV/Sales. |
| **6. Special Circumstances** | ✅ PRESENT | AI secular tailwind. AIP driving step-change in commercial adoption. Government + commercial both accelerating simultaneously. |
**Summary:** 5 of 6 factors pass. The one that doesn't — valuation — is the one that keeps me out.
---
## Revenue Table
| | Q1 FY24 | Q2 FY24 | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q
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Preview
# PLTR — Palantir Q4 FY25 Earnings Review
**Bear (PaulWBryant) | Date: 2026-02-22 | Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-25)**
**Market Cap: ~$320B | EV/TTM Revenue: ~70x | P/S: ~70x**
---
## Prior Beliefs / Updated Beliefs
I had not been tracking Palantir formally. This is my first structured write-up. I'm applying the framework cold — which means I'm also most honest about what I see.
| Metric | Prior Belief | Actual | Verdict |
|--------|-------------|--------|---------|
| Revenue growth | 55-60% YoY (consensus-level) | 70% | Exceeded — meaningful |
| Adj op margin | ~35-40% | 57% | Blowout — inflection point |
| U.S. Commercial growth | ~90-100% | +137% | Blowout |
| FY26 guide | ~$6.5B (consensus) | $7.19B | +$290M beat, +61% growth |
| FCF margin | ~45% | 56% | Better than expected |
| TCV signal | Lagging revenue | TCV +138% vs rev +70% | Leading indicators are bullish |
The numbers did not just match the theory. They exceeded it. That's important to acknowledge clearly.
---
## The Numbers
| | Q124 | Q224 | Q324 | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 | Q425 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 |
| Revenue ($m) | 634 | 678 | 726 | 884 | 1,004 | 1,181 | 1,407 |
| YoY % | 20.8% | 27.2% | 30.0% | 39.4% | 48.0% | 62.8% | **70.0%** |
| QoQ % | — | 6.9% | 7.0% | — | 13.5% | 17.7% | **19.1%** |
| Sequential Add ($m) | — | 44 | 47 | — | 120 | 177 | **226** |
| Adj Op Margin [Non-GAAP] | 12.8% | 15.5% | 15.6% | 19.9% | 26.8% | 33.3% | **57.0%** |
| GAAP Net Margin | 16.6% | 19.8% | 19.8% | 24.2% | 32.5% | 40.3% | **43.0%** |
| EPS Non-GAAP | $0.04 | $0.06 | $0.06 | $0.08 | $0.13 | $0.18 | **$0.25** |
**Sequential revenue adds:** $44M → $47M → $120M → $177M → $226M. That is not a coincidence. That is a business in a different gear.
**Full Year FY25:** Revenue $4,475M (+56%), GAAP Net $1,625M (36%), FCF $2,270M (51%).
---
## Segment Breakdown — Q4 FY25
| Segment | Revenue ($m) | % Total | YoY | QoQ |
|---------|-------------|--
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# PLTR — Earnings Review Q4 FY25 (Saul)
> Date: 2026-02-22
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-25)
> Market cap: ~$320B | EV/TTM Rev: ~70x | Revenue growth: +70% YoY
---
## The Numbers First — Because These Numbers Are Insane
Let me start by just laying out the revenue trajectory, because the trajectory is what I follow first:
| | Q124 | Q224 | Q324 | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 | Q425 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 |
| Revenue ($m) | 634 | 678 | 726 | 884 | 1,004 | 1,181 | 1,407 |
| YoY % | 20.8% | 27.2% | 30.0% | 39.4% | 48.0% | 62.8% | **70.0%** |
| QoQ % | — | 6.9% | 7.0% | — | 13.5% | 17.7% | **19.1%** |
| Sequential Add ($m) | — | 44 | 47 | — | 120 | 177 | **226** |
| Adj Op Margin [Non-GAAP] | 12.8% | 15.5% | 15.6% | 19.9% | 26.8% | 33.3% | **57.0%** |
| GAAP Net Margin | 16.6% | 19.8% | 19.8% | 24.2% | 32.5% | 40.3% | **43.0%** |
| EPS [Non-GAAP] | $0.04 | $0.06 | $0.06 | $0.08 | $0.13 | $0.18 | **$0.25** |
Do you see that? Revenue growth was 20.8% → 27.2% → 30.0% → 39.4% → 48.0% → 62.8% → **70.0%**. That is 7 consecutive quarters of acceleration! At $1.4 billion of quarterly revenue! I'm sorry, but that is preposterous! I have followed growth companies for decades and almost nothing behaves like this at this scale.
Sequential adds: $44M → $47M → then JUMP to $120M → $177M → $226M. The business is gaining velocity, not losing it. That is so, so rare.
And the operating margins! From 12.8% [Non-GAAP] when I first look at them to **57.0%** [Non-GAAP] in Q4. A single quarter jump from 33.3% to 57.0%! That is not normal. That is a business where operating leverage has truly inflected.
Full year 2025: $4,475M revenue (+56% YoY), $2,270M adjusted FCF (51% FCF margin), $1,625M GAAP net income. GAAP profitable. FCF positive. Growing at 56%. That is just extraordinary!
---
## What Is Actually Driving This?
The key story is U.S. Commercial. Let me show you:
| Segment | Q4 Revenue | YoY Growth |
|---------|--
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# PLTR — Q4 FY25 Earnings Review
**StockNovice (Joe) | February 2026**
*First look — no prior Joe analysis on file*
---
## The Headline
Okay. Sometimes a quarter is so loud you can't ignore it. Palantir printed $1.407B in Q4, up 70% year-over-year at a nearly $6B annual revenue run rate. U.S. Commercial grew 137%. TCV jumped 138%. Adj operating margin hit 57%. Rule of 40: 127%.
By almost any growth metric, this is the best quarter a large-cap software company has put up in years.
Atlas pegged it at Conviction 3 — "extraordinary business at an extraordinary price." That's about right. My job here is to figure out what Joe would actually do with it.
---
## "Is" vs "Could Be"
This one is clearly "is." The acceleration is the story:
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY Growth | Adj Op Margin |
|---------|---------|------------|---------------|
| Q1 FY25 | $884M | 39.4% | 19.9% |
| Q2 FY25 | $1,004M | 48.0% | 26.8% |
| Q3 FY25 | $1,181M | 62.8% | 33.3% |
| Q4 FY25 | $1,407M | 70.0% | 57.0% |
Revenue growth is *accelerating* at $1.4B quarterly scale. That almost never happens. Usually companies decelerate as they get bigger — law of large numbers. Palantir is doing the opposite.
The AIP bootcamp model is clearly working. They're converting marketing spend into signed deals at a pace that's showing up in TCV ($4.26B, +138% YoY) and RDV ($4.38B, +145% YoY). That RDV represents 3+ quarters of U.S. Commercial forward revenue visibility. Leading indicators are running 2x ahead of reported revenue.
So: the business is delivering. This isn't a "could be" story anymore.
---
## What I Love
**U.S. Commercial approaching Government parity.** $507M Commercial vs $570M Government in Q4. Commercial was a distant second 18 months ago. This matters because commercial contracts are theoretically more scalable and less politically exposed than government. If AIP keeps compounding, commercial could overtake government in FY26. That's a structural shift.
**180 deals ≥$1M. 61 deals ≥$10M
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Preview
# PLTR — Palantir Technologies Q4 FY25 Earnings Review
**Date:** 2026-02-22 | **Quarter:** Q4 FY25 (ended Dec 31, 2025) | **Reported:** Feb 2, 2026
long PLTR 0% (not held — watching)
---
## Links
- Press Release: Q4 FY25 (Feb 2, 2026 via scout brief)
- Atlas analysis: ~/.agents/skills/atlas/analyses/PLTR/PLTR_earnings-review_Q4_FY25.md
---
## Revenue Trajectory
| | Q1 FY24 | Q2 FY24 | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 |
| | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 634 | 678 | 726 | 828 | 884 | 1,076 | 1,266 | 1,407 |
| YoY % | +21% | +27% | +30% | +36% | +39% | +59% | +74% | +70% |
| QoQ % | +2% | +7% | +7% | +14% | +7% | +22% | +18% | +11% |
YoY trend: +21% -> +27% -> +30% -> +36% -> +39% -> +59% -> +74% -> +70%
That's sustained acceleration from +21% to +70% over 8 quarters ^^. The slight pullback from +74% to +70% is noise — the underlying trend is intact and the comps get harder from here. More importantly: the COMPOSITION of this growth is what matters.
---
## The Core Story: U.S. Commercial AIP Flywheel
Here's the thing. PLTR isn't growing at +70% because of some contract win or one-time catalyst. It's because AIP (Palantir's AI Platform) created a fundamentally new GTM motion — the bootcamp — that is converting enterprise prospects to paying customers at a rate nobody predicted.
**Segment breakdown Q4 FY25:**
| Segment | Revenue ($M) | YoY % | QoQ % |
|---------|-------------|--------|--------|
| U.S. Commercial | ~507M | +137% !! | ~+25% |
| U.S. Government | ~577M | +66% !! | ~+7% |
| International Commercial | ~208M | +13% | ~+4% |
| International Government | ~115M | +12% | ~+3% |
U.S. Commercial at +137% YoY is the headline. This is the AIP bootcamp thesis proving out in real time. Companies come in for a 5-day bootcamp, see AIP solve their actual operational problems, and convert to paying customers. The bootcamp model is essential
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Rolling earnings (raw)
# PLTR — Rolling Earnings Summary
**Last Updated:** 2026-02-23
**Coverage:** Q2 FY25 – Q4 FY25 (3 quarters; first time tracking)
**Trajectory:** Revenue accelerating — 48% → 63% → 70% YoY
---
## Revenue Trajectory
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY % | QoQ % | Sequential Add |
|---------|---------|--------|--------|----------------|
| Q2 FY25 | $1,004M | 48.0% | 13.5% | $120M |
| Q3 FY25 | $1,181M | 62.8% | 17.7% | $177M |
| Q4 FY25 | $1,407M | **70.0%** | **19.1%** | **$226M** |
**Status:** Unambiguous acceleration. Every metric improving quarter-over-quarter.
---
## Promise Tracker
| Quarter | Promise | Q Made | Status |
|---------|---------|--------|--------|
| FY26 Rev $7.182-7.198B (+61%) | Q4 FY25 | Tracking |
| FY26 U.S. Commercial >$3.144B (+115%) | Q4 FY25 | Tracking |
| FY26 Adj FCF $3.925-4.125B | Q4 FY25 | Tracking |
| FY26 Adj Op Income $4.126-4.142B (~57%) | Q4 FY25 | Tracking |
---
## Language Shift Monitor
| Quarter | Tone | Key Phrase | Signal |
|---------|------|-----------|--------|
| Q4 FY25 | Highly confident, combative | "We are an n of 1"; "commodity cognition" | Peak confidence — watch for overpromise |
Karp's "n of 1" language is a double-edged sword: signals genuine differentiation but also sets a high bar. If growth decelerates, the rhetoric will look hollow.
---
## Analyst Concern Tracker
| Concern | Status | Management Response |
|---------|--------|---------------------|
| Valuation at 70x TTM revenue | Active | No management response — they don't address stock price |
| Government budget/DOGE risk | Active | Not directly addressed in PR |
| NRR not disclosed | Active — ongoing | Palantir policy: they don't share NRR |
| SBC at 14% of revenue | Active | Implicit in adj vs GAAP gap |
| Durability of 57% adj op margin | Tracking (Q1 FY26 guide implies same level) | Q1 FY26 guide: $872M adj op income / $1,534M rev = 57% — management confident |
---
## Quarter-by-Quarter Verdict
| Quarter | Verdict | Key Point |
|---------|---------|-----------|
| Q4 FY25 | **Blowout** | Revenue $1,407M +70% YoY (ATH, 4th consecutive acceleration), GAAP op margin 40.9% (ATH), NG op margin 56.8% (ATH), gross margin 84.7% (ATH), FCF $791M (56%). TCV $4.26B (+138% = 3.0x revenue) = leading indicator screaming FY26. U.S. Commercial $507M +137% (+28% QoQ) on verge of surpassing Gov't segment. FY26 guide $7.19B (+61%) beat consensus ~$290M. Rule of 40 = 127. |