Investing analyses

# RBRK — Earnings Review Q3_FY26 + Q4_FY26 Preliminary (Atlas)

> Date: 2026-02-23 (revised; supersedes 2026-02-21 draft)
> Quarter: Q3_FY26 (ended Oct 31, 2025) | Q4_FY26 Preliminary confirmed Feb 4, 2026
> Market cap: ~$10.9B | EV/TTM Rev: ~9.0x | Revenue growth: +48.3% YoY (35% normalized)

## Verdict

Q3_FY26 was Rubrik's best public-company quarter: record net new ARR ($95M), first non-GAAP operating profitability (+$10.1M / +2.9%), and FCF inflecting to 22% margin ($76.9M). Crucially, Q3 reverses the Q2 guidance miss — Rubrik beat the Q3 guide by $8.2M after missing the Q2 guide by ~$10M. The Feb 4 Q4 preliminary ("exceeding all guided metrics") extends the momentum. Two persistent concerns cap conviction: NRR has been reported as ">120%" for six consecutive quarters with no re-acceleration signal, and SBC at $83M/quarter remains 24% of revenue — nearly 4x Non-GAAP operating income. At 9x EV/TTM with FCF scaling and platform expansion (Identity, Agent Cloud) credibly underway, risk/reward is favorable. Conviction: 4/5 (raised from prior 3.5).

## Qualification Gate

| Criterion | Threshold | RBRK Q3_FY26 | Pass/Fail |
|-----------|-----------|--------------|-----------|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% (>40% preferred) | 48.3% reported / ~35% normalized | PASS |
| Gross margin | >60% (>70% preferred) | 80.5% GAAP / 82.8% Non-GAAP | PASS |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $350.2M | PASS |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 12Q in DB | PASS |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | SBC $83M/Q = 24% of revenue; IPO-inflated shares normalizing | CONCERN |
| GAAP profitability trajectory | Improving | Op margin -21.6% vs -52.8% YoY (+31pp); Non-GAAP profitable | PASS |

**Dilution note:** Post-IPO share count inflated ~58% YoY (Apr-24 IPO) — one-time step-change. Ongoing SBC dilution is the structural concern: $83M/quarter against $22.9M Non-GAAP net income means SBC is 3.6x the non-GAAP bottom line. Must decline as % of revenue to sustain the FCF narrative.

## Six-Factor Sco

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# RBRK — Q4 FY26 Earnings Review

> Date: 2026-03-13
> Quarter: Q4 FY26 (ended Jan 31, 2026)
> Analyst: wsm007
> Position: Long RBRK 7.2% + LEAPS Jan'27 $85C 4.4%

---

## Verdict

**I listened to the call and found very little to complain about. Record quarter on every dimension that matters. Net new ARR of $115M crushed my bull case ($96M). Revenue beat by 10.4%. FCF of $238M vs $202M guide. Second consecutive non-GAAP profitable quarter. Three S-curves stacking: (1) backup/resilience, (2) identity — ramping faster than S-curve #1 did at the same stage per the CEO, and now (3) controlling and recovering from agents (nascent). Record ARR added, record beat, record initial guide for next year, record large ARR customers added. Lots of momentum, relative competitive advantage, and no sign of any company-specific headwinds. The stock yawned — I attribute that entirely to the continuing "AI eating software" macro angst, which the CEO addressed head-on: they're a system of record of last resort, sees no reason at all to worry. The guide is sandbagged and the net new ARR acceleration is the single most important signal. Thesis: Strengthening.**

---

## The Numbers — 16 Quarters (QoQ Grid) + Guidance

### Revenue ($M) — Actual (QoQ %)

| | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Q1 (Apr)** | $132M (-12.0%) | $136M (-17.6%) | $187M (+7.0%) | $279M (+7.9%) | **guide: $366M (-3.4%)** |
| **Q2 (Jul)** | $132M (0.0%) | $152M (+11.6%) | $205M (+9.4%) | $310M (+11.3%) | — |
| **Q3 (Oct)** | $167M (+26.5%) | $166M (+9.3%) | $236M (+15.2%) | $350M (+13.0%) | — |
| **Q4 (Jan)** | $165M (-1.5%) | $175M (+5.7%) | $258M (+9.3%) | **$378M (+7.8%)** | — |
| **FY Total** | $596M | $628M | $887M | **$1,316M** | **guide: $1,602M** |
| **FY YoY** | — | +5.4% | +41.2% | **+48.4%** | **+21.7% (rptd) / +28.4% (norm.)** |

### Subscription ARR ($M) — Quarter-End

| | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Q1 (Apr)** | $316M | $587M | $856M | $

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# Rubrik (RBRK) — Q4 FY26 Earnings Review

**Philip A. Fisher | March 2026**

---

## Prior Beliefs Going In

When I last examined Rubrik in February, I assessed the company as one of the more compelling growth investments I have encountered in recent years — a company that is "fortunate because it is able," where management is actively creating its growth through deliberate category expansion rather than merely riding the cybersecurity industry's rising tide. My thesis rested on three pillars: the cloud migration was nearing completion, the identity product was scaling faster than management expected, and Agent Cloud represented a genuinely novel market opportunity. The primary concern was dilution — SBC at 24% of revenue and 8% annual share count growth.

I now turn to Q4 FY26 to determine whether the business confirmed or contradicted these beliefs.

---

## The Quarter: What the Numbers Reveal

Revenue of $377.7 million, up 46% year-over-year, beating guidance of $341-343 million by an extraordinary 10.4%. This is not a modest beat. This is management systematically underguiding by a wide margin, and the pattern has now been established over multiple quarters with increasing magnitude.

The more telling figure is net new subscription ARR of $115 million — a record, and an acceleration from Q3's $95 million. In the full fiscal year, Rubrik added $369 million of net new ARR, precisely double FY25's $185 million. I have found over many years that the absolute dollar increment of growth is a more reliable indicator than the percentage rate, because percentages inevitably compress while a business that adds increasing dollars of ARR each year is genuinely expanding its economic footprint.

| Metric | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Direction |
|--------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|
| Revenue ($M) | $279 | $310 | $350 | $378 | Accelerating $ adds |
| Sub ARR ($B) | $1.18 | $1.25 | $1.35 | $1.46 | +34% YoY, stable |
| Net New ARR ($M) | 

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# RBRK — Rubrik Q3 FY26 Earnings Review
**GauchoRico | 2026-02-22 | Q3 FY26 (ended Oct 31, 2025)**

---

## Headline

Q3 FY26 was Rubrik's best quarter since IPO — 48% revenue growth, first non-GAAP operating profit, FCF up 394% YoY to $76.9M, record net new ARR. The stock sits ~50% below its peak at ~$50. Sounds great. My problem: strip out the material rights noise and you have a ~35% normalized grower decelerating from 54% a year ago. That doesn't pass my qualifying filter, and I want to be honest about that before I say anything else.

---

## Twelve-Quarter Revenue History

| | Q4FY24 | Q1FY25 | Q2FY25 | Q3FY25 | Q4FY25 | Q1FY26 | Q2FY26 | Q3FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Jan-24 | Apr-24 | Jul-24 | Oct-24 | Jan-25 | Apr-25 | Jul-25 | Oct-25 |
| Revenue ($M) [Non-GAAP] | 187.7 | 187.0 | 205.2 | 236.5 | 258.2 | 260.9 | 284.4 | 350.2 |
| YoY Growth % | — | — | — | — | 37.5% | 39.5% | 38.6% | 48.0% |
| QoQ Growth % | — | — | 9.8% | 15.2% | 9.2% | 1.1% | 9.0% | 23.1% |
| Subscription ARR ($B) | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.98 | 1.01 | 1.10 | 1.17 | 1.26 | 1.35 |
| ARR YoY Growth % | — | — | — | — | 34.1% | 33.0% | 28.6% | 33.7% |
| Cloud ARR ($B) | — | — | — | — | 0.81 | 0.89 | 1.01 | 1.175 |
| Cloud % of ARR | ~74% | — | — | ~80% | ~74% | ~76% | ~80% | 87% |
| Gross Margin % [Non-GAAP] | 75.5% | 76.8% | 77.9% | 79.7% | 79.5% | 79.6% | 80.2% | 80.5% |
| Op Margin % [Non-GAAP] | -28.8% | -23.5% | -20.1% | -16.2% | -12.1% | -9.7% | -8.0% | +2.9% |
| FCF ($M) | -8.0 | 15.6 | -2.0 | 15.6 | 76.4 | 30.6 | 11.5 | 76.9 |
| FCF Margin % | -4.3% | 8.3% | -1.0% | 6.6% | 29.6% | 11.7% | 4.0% | 22.0% |

Note: Q3 FY26 revenue includes ~$68M material rights (non-recurring, one-time catch-up). Normalized revenue growth ~35% YoY.

---

## Six-Factor Assessment

| Factor | Score | Notes |
|--------|-------|-------|
| 1. Revenue Growth >40% | ⚠️ BORDERLINE | 48% reported; ~35% normalized for material rights. Below my 40% threshold on apples-to-apples. |
| 2. Trajectory | ❌ DECELE

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# RBRK — Earnings Review Q3 FY26
**Bear (PaulWBryant) | Date: 2026-02-22 | Quarter ended: Oct 31, 2025**

---

## First Look

I haven't written about Rubrik before. This is my first look, triggered by Q3 FY26 results (Dec 4, 2025) plus the pre-announced Q4 FY26 revenue figure of $342m disclosed during the Q3 call. The numbers tell a complicated story — a breakout quarter in Q3 followed by a guided deceleration in Q4 that deserves careful parsing.

Applying my framework cold.

---

## Prior Beliefs / Updated Beliefs

Since this is my first analysis, I'll frame what I would have expected from a cloud-native data protection company 18 months post-IPO, then compare to what the numbers show.

| Dimension | What I'd Expect | What the Numbers Show |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 40-50% for a post-IPO cloud security play | Q3: 48% YoY — on track. Q4 guided 33% — deceleration |
| ARR growth | Should lead or match revenue | ARR +34% YoY; reported revenue boosted by material rights (~$68m FY26) — normalized ≈35% |
| NRR | Should be expanding if platform narrative is real | Stuck at >120% for 5 consecutive quarters — floor, not ceiling |
| FCF | Should be approaching positive | $76.9m in Q3 (22% margin) — ahead of expectations |
| Gross margin | >75% for cloud-native | 80.5% [GAAP] — strong |
| SBC | High post-IPO, should be declining as % of rev | $83.2m in Q3 = 23.8% of revenue — not declining |

**Updated belief:** The business is executing on cloud migration (ARR mix now 87% cloud) and hitting milestones. But the revenue growth story is muddied by material rights recognition, and the "growth is decelerating" signal is real regardless of normalization arguments.

---

## Revenue Trajectory

| Quarter | Revenue ($m) | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY24 (Jan-24) | 159.0 | +6.3% | — |
| Q1 FY25 (Apr-24) | — | — | — |
| Q2 FY25 (Jul-24) | 191.0 | +49.8% | — |
| Q3 FY25 (Oct-24) | 221.5 | +54.5% | +16.0% |
| Q4 FY25 (Jan-25) | 244.0 | +53.5% | +10.2% |
| Q2 FY26 (Jul-25) 

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# RBRK — Q3 FY26 Earnings Review (Saul)

> Date: 2026-02-22
> Quarter: Q3 FY26 (ended Oct 31, 2025)
> Reported: December 4, 2025
> Next earnings: Q4 FY26, March 12, 2026

---

## Verdict

Rubrik is a genuinely impressive cloud-native data protection company in the middle of a real profitability inflection. The Q3 numbers were outstanding on every profitability and cash metric. But I have to be honest — the NRR has been stuck at exactly 120% for five straight quarters, and revenue growth is decelerating from 55% to a guided 33% in Q4 (or ~35% normalized). Those two facts together give me pause. This is a Hold, not a Buy, for me right now. I want to see Q4 earnings on March 12 and especially the FY27 guide before adding conviction.

**Thesis status: Watch List / Small Position Only**

---

## The Numbers That Matter

| | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Period** | Jan-24 | Apr-24 | Jul-24 | Oct-24 | Jan-25 | Apr-25 | Jul-25 | Oct-25 |
| Revenue ($M) | 159.0 | 172.2 | 191.0 | 221.5 | 244.0 | 265.7 | 297.0 | 350.2 |
| YoY % | 6.3% | 58.9% | 49.8% | 54.5% | 53.5% | 54.3% | 55.5% | **48.3%** |
| Sub ARR ($B) | 0.784 | 0.856 | 0.919 | 1.002 | 1.093 | 1.181 | 1.252 | **1.347** |
| ARR YoY % | — | — | — | — | ~36% | ~33% | ~35% | **34%** |
| Cloud ARR ($B) | — | 0.606 | 0.678 | 0.769 | 0.876 | 0.972 | 1.064 | **1.175** |
| Cloud ARR YoY % | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | **53%** |
| NRR | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | **1.20** |
| GM [GAAP] % | 77.1% | 48.7%* | 73.1% | 76.2% | 77.3% | 80.5% | 79.4% | **80.5%** |
| Op Margin [GAAP] | -47.5% | — | -82.1% | -52.8% | -45.0% | -33.4% | -30.5% | **-21.6%** |
| FCF ($M) | 8.7 | -37.1 | -32.0 | 15.6 | 75.2 | 33.3 | 57.5 | **76.9** |
| FCF Margin | 5.0% | — | -15.6% | 6.6% | 29.1% | 12.0% | 18.6% | **22.0%** |
| $100K+ Customers | 1,742 | 1,859 | 1,969 | 2,085 | 2,246 | 2,381 | 2,505 | **2,638** |

*Q1 FY25 GM distorted by IPO-rel

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# RBRK — Q4 FY26 Earnings Review (StockNovice / Joe)

> Date: 2026-03-14
> Quarter: Q4 FY26 (ended Jan 31, 2026)
> Reported: March 12, 2026
> Market cap: ~$11.6B | P/S: ~7.7x run-rate | Revenue growth: 46% YoY reported (43% ex-material rights)
> Second analysis of RBRK. First review: Q3 FY26 (Feb 2026).

---

## Opening Take

Alright, here's the deal. Back in February I wrote my first-ever look at Rubrik and called the thesis "Weakening." That wasn't because the business stunk — it was because NRR was stuck at 1.20 for five quarters, growth was decelerating, and the platform expansion stuff (Identity, Agent Cloud) was still immaterial. I said I'd give it one more quarter before sizing. That quarter was Q4 FY26.

And Q4 just cleared every bar I set.

Revenue of $377.7M crushed the $341-343M guide by 10.4%. Net new subscription ARR hit $115M — a record that blew past even my bull case of ~$96M. FCF for the full year came in at $237.8M versus the $194-202M guide. Second straight quarter of non-GAAP profitability. Record $1M+ customer adds (32 in the quarter). And then they dropped FY27 guidance that, if you squint even a little, is clearly sandbagged.

Here's how I'm thinking about this: the "is" column got a lot longer, and the "could be" column got more credible. That's exactly the kind of shift that earns a company a promotion from tryout to starter.

---

## The Numbers

| | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Period** | Apr-24 | Jul-24 | Oct-24 | Jan-25 | Apr-25 | Jul-25 | Oct-25 | Jan-26 |
| Revenue ($M) | 187.3 | 205.0 | 236.2 | 258.1 | 278.5 | 309.9 | 350.2 | **377.7** |
| YoY % | 38.0% | 35.2% | 42.6% | 47.5% | 48.7% | 51.2% | 48.3% | **46.3%** |
| QoQ % | 7.0% | 9.4% | 15.2% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 13.0% | **7.8%** |
| Gross Margin [GAAP] | 48.7%* | 73.1% | 76.2% | 77.3% | 78.3% | 79.5% | 80.5% | **81.5%** |
| Non-GAAP GM | — | — | — | 79.7% | — | — | 83.0% | **83.7%** |
| O

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# RBRK — Rubrik Q3 FY26 Earnings Review
**Date:** 2026-02-22 | **Quarter:** Q3 FY26 (ended Oct 31, 2025) | **Report date:** Dec 4, 2025

**Long RBRK 7.2% + Jan'27 $85C LEAPS 4.4%**

---

## Links
- Press Release: Dec 4, 2025
- Earnings Call: Dec 5, 2025
- Next Earnings: March 12, 2026 (Q4 FY26 + FY27 guidance)

---

## Revenue & Key Metrics

| | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FX26 | Q3 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Oct-23 | Jan-24 | Apr-24 | Jul-24 | Oct-24 | Jan-25 | Apr-25 | Jul-25 | Oct-25 |
| Revenue ($M) [Non-GAAP] | 149.7 | 178.5 | 187.0 | 205.0 | 236.7 | 258.2 | 306.6 | 323.5 | 350.2 |
| YoY % | — | — | — | — | +58.1% | +44.6% | +63.9%^^ | +57.8% | +48.0% |
| Subscription ARR ($M) | — | — | 921 | 1,009 | 1,066 | 1,251 | 1,200 | 1,347 | 1,347 |
| Cloud ARR ($M) | — | — | — | — | 770 | 968 | — | 1,095 | 1,175 |
| Cloud ARR % of Sub | — | — | — | — | 72% | 77% | — | 81% | 87%^^ |
| NRR | — | — | >120% | >120% | >120% | >120% | >120% | >120% | >120% |
| $100K+ Cust | — | 1,868 | 2,065 | 2,256 | 2,448 | 2,549 | 2,589 | 2,619 | 2,638 |
| $1M+ Cust | — | 71 | — | — | — | 162 | — | — | 185 |
| GM % [GAAP] | — | 59.3% | 72.0% | 75.5% | 77.2% | 78.2% | 79.0% | 79.7% | 80.5%^^ |
| OpM % [GAAP] | — | -47.8% | -52.3% | -34.4% | -31.4% | -25.1% | -26.1% | -27.6% | -21.6%^^ |
| FCF ($M) | — | — | 40.0 | 95.3 | 15.6 | — | 78.0 | 57.2 | 76.9 |
| FCF Margin % | — | 5.0% | 21.4% | 46.5% | 6.6% | — | 25.5% | 17.7% | 22.0% |

**Q4 FY26:** Pre-announced $342M (~33% YoY) — **official March 12**
**FY26 full-year:** $1,280-1,282M guided (35% normalized, ~44% reported with material rights)

---

## The Platform Story — Where muji Sees It

Here's the thing... Rubrik is one of the most interesting platform-in-progress stories I'm watching. The question isn't whether it's a good business — it clearly is. The question is: **is this a building block or a process tool?**

My read after digging into the product cadence: **Rubri

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# RBRK — Rubrik: Stock Analysis (Initiation)

> Date: 2026-03-31
> Author: Bert Hochfeld (TickerTarget)
> Market Cap: ~$9.25B | Share Price: ~$46.22 | Shares: ~200.8M
> FY26 Revenue: $1,316.2M (+48.5% YoY) | FY27 Guide: $1,602M (+22% reported / +28% normalized)
> EV: ~$8.70B | EV/S (NTM): 5.4x | EV/ARR: 5.9x | P/FCF: 38.9x | Rule of 40: 66.6

---

## Summary

Rubrik is a cyber resilience platform company growing subscription revenue at 50% YoY, generating $238M in free cash flow (18.1% margin), and trading at an EV/S of 5.4x on next-twelve-month revenue — a discount of approximately 35-40% to the cohort average for companies growing at a normalized 28% CAGR with 83%+ gross margins. The company has delivered back-to-back non-GAAP operating profitability for the first time, is expanding its platform from data protection into identity resilience (900+ customers, fastest-growing product in company history) and AI agent governance, and has beaten every guided metric since its May 2024 IPO — with FY26 FCF exceeding initial guidance by 332%. The stock is down roughly 55% from its $103 peak and 30% year-to-date despite the strongest operating year in company history, which tells me the market is pricing in a deceleration that the underlying unit economics do not support. At current levels, this is a relative bargain — one of the more compelling risk/reward setups I have seen in the high-growth cybersecurity cohort. I am initiating coverage with a recommendation to buy.

---

## Business Overview

I am not going to pretend that data backup and recovery is the most intellectually stimulating corner of enterprise technology. It is, however, one of the most commercially durable. Every enterprise must protect its data. Every enterprise must be able to recover from a cyberattack. These are not optional budget items, and they do not get cut in a recession any more than a hospital stops buying bandages.

What makes Rubrik interesting is not the category but the approach. The compan

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