Investing analyses

# RKLB — Stock Analysis (April 2026)

**Brilliant business. Insane valuation. Not buying at $89.**

Rocket Lab is executing at an elite level — 100% mission success, record backlog, accelerating margins, founder-led with capital discipline. But at 73x run-rate P/S with negative FCF and binary Neutron risk, the stock is priced for perfection in a way that leaves zero margin of safety. I can admire the engineering without paying this price.

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## The Numbers

### Revenue Trajectory — QoQ Grid (Quarters Down, Years Across)

| | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Q1** ($m) | $40.7 | $54.9 | $92.8 | $122.6 | ↑ Stepping up |
| Q1 QoQ % | — | +6.0% | +54.7% | -7.4% | Seasonal Q4→Q1 dip |
| **Q2** ($m) | $55.5 | $62.0 | $106.3 | $144.5 | ↑ |
| Q2 QoQ % | +36.4% | +12.9% | +14.5% | +17.9% | Accelerating |
| **Q3** ($m) | $63.1 | $67.7 | $104.8 | $155.1 | ↑ |
| Q3 QoQ % | +13.7% | +9.2% | -1.4% | +7.3% | Improving |
| **Q4** ($m) | $51.8 | $60.0 | $132.4 | $179.7 | ↑ |
| Q4 QoQ % | -17.9% | -11.4% | +26.3% | +15.9% | **Strong, improving from FY22-23 pattern** |
| **FY Total** | **$211M** | **$245M** | **$436M** | **$602M** | |
| **FY YoY %** | — | +16% | +78% | +38% | Decelerating off FY24 spike |

**Key observation:** Q4 FY25 QoQ of +15.9% is a **reacceleration** from Q3's +7.3% — an 8.6pp sequential improvement. Compare the Q4 column across years: FY22 -17.9%, FY23 -11.4%, FY24 +26.3%, FY25 +15.9%. The pattern shifted from Q4 being a *down* quarter (FY22-23) to a *strong* quarter (FY24-25). Structural change in revenue seasonality driven by government contract milestone timing.

**YoY deceleration:** FY24 +78% → FY25 +38%. But FY24 was an outlier — SDA Tranche 2 ($515M) began ramping, inflating the base. The quarterly YoY pattern in FY25 is actually stable: Q1 +32%, Q2 +36%, Q3 +48%, Q4 +36%. The Q3 spike (+48%) reflects a soft Q3 FY24 compare (-1.4% QoQ). Adjust for that, and FY25 is steady mid-30s growth. Solid at $600M scale.

**Q1 FY26 

*…truncated*