Investing analyses

# SE — Stock Analysis (Atlas)

> Date: 2026-03-31
> Period: FY2025 full year / Q4 FY25
> Market cap: ~$47B | EV: ~$38.3B | EV/TTM Rev: 1.7x | Revenue growth: 38.4% YoY (Q4)

## Verdict

Sea Limited is a rare triple-engine platform with dominant positions in Southeast Asian e-commerce (Shopee, 52% GMV share), fintech (Monee, $9.2B loan book, 10x nearest competitor), and gaming (Garena, Free Fire at 100M+ DAU). FY2025 delivered $22.9B revenue (+36% YoY) with $1.6B GAAP net income and $5.0B operating cash flow — a decisive profitability inflection. At 1.7x EV/TTM revenue and ~7.7x EV/TTM OPCF, the stock is meaningfully cheap after a 40% YTD decline driven by an EPS miss ($0.63 vs $0.80 consensus) and macro fear, not fundamental deterioration. The credit provisioning burden ($1.4B FY25, +77% YoY) is the key swing factor: it is both Monee's primary risk and its primary proof-of-concept. **Conviction: 4/5.**

## Qualification Gate

| Criterion | Threshold | SE Result | Verdict |
|-----------|-----------|-----------|---------|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% (>40% pref) | 38.4% Q4, 36.4% FY25 | PASS |
| Gross margin | >60% (>70% pref) | 43.8% consolidated | FAIL (structural — see note) |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $6,852M | PASS |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 13 quarters | PASS |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | +7.1% YoY | PASS (but notable) |
| GAAP profitability | Improving or positive | NI $1.6B FY25 (+260% YoY) | PASS |

**Note on gross margin:** The 44% consolidated gross margin is structural, not a quality concern. Sea is a blended e-commerce + fintech + gaming conglomerate. At the segment level: Monee runs at ~87.5% gross margin, Garena at ~67%, Shopee at ~31% (logistics-heavy). The consolidated figure is mix-weighted by Shopee's dominance (73% of revenue). MercadoLibre, the closest peer, has similar consolidated gross margins (~45-50%). The gate threshold is designed for software companies and should not disqualify a dominant e-commerce platform. **Proceed

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# SE — Sea Limited: Stock Analysis

> **Date:** 2026-03-31
> **Period:** FY2025 full year / Q4 FY25
> **Market cap:** ~$47B | **EV:** ~$38.3B | **Stock:** ~$79
> **Verdict:** BUY — Three S-curves stacking, 38% growth, PEG 0.8, stock down 40% YTD. This is mispriced.

---

## Thesis

**Sea is a triple-engine platform with three compounding S-curves — Shopee's take-rate expansion, Monee's credit flywheel, and Garena's IP revival — all inflecting simultaneously.** FY2025 delivered $22.9B revenue (+36%), $1.6B GAAP net income (+260%), and $5.0B operating cash flow. The stock is down 40% YTD. At 1.7x EV/Revenue and a PEG of 0.8, you are paying utility-company multiples for the dominant consumer platform in the fastest-growing digital economy on earth. The market is pricing TikTok panic and macro fear. The numbers are pricing dominance.

I haven't written about SE specifically before, but applying my framework — leading indicators diverging from revenue, profitability inflecting, multiple growth vectors at different stages of maturity, absurd valuation compression — this is textbook.

---

## The Numbers

### Revenue: The QoQ Grid

This is where the story lives. Quarters down, years across:

| | FY23 QoQ | FY24 QoQ | FY25 QoQ | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Q1** | -11.9% | +3.3% | -2.2% | Seasonal trough; FY24 improvement, FY25 similar to FY24 |
| **Q2** | +1.8% | +1.9% | **+8.6%** | **Massive acceleration** — 4.3x the prior year's Q2 |
| **Q3** | +6.9% | +13.7% | **+13.8%** | Sustained at high base — 14% QoQ annualises to **69%** |
| **Q4** | +9.3% | +14.4% | **+14.5%** | Again sustained — record Q4 revenue add of $866M |

The Q2 FY25 jump from +1.9% to +8.6% QoQ is the signal. In what was historically the weakest quarter, the engine is now firing. Q3 and Q4 both sustained ~14% QoQ on a much larger base — that's $727M and $866M in incremental sequential revenue. At $6.85B quarterly run-rate, this company is printing money.

### Revenue: YoY Acceleration

| | FY23 YoY 

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# SE — Sea Limited: Stock Analysis (Phil Fisher)

> Date: 2026-03-31
> Period: FY2025 full year / Q4 FY25
> Market cap: ~$47B | EV: ~$38.3B | EV/TTM Rev: 1.7x | FY25 Revenue: $22.9B (+36% YoY)

---

## Verdict

I have found, over many years of investing, that the greatest fortunes are made by identifying companies that are "fortunate because they are able" — companies where management excellence creates growth, rather than merely riding industry tailwinds. Sea Limited, under the leadership of Forrest Li, is precisely such a company. It has demonstrated the rarest quality in business: the ability to simultaneously build three world-class platforms (Shopee in e-commerce, Monee in financial services, Garena in gaming), each reinforcing the others, each led by management deep enough to operate independently yet integrated enough to share a common customer base of 400 million people.

What makes Sea exceptional is not the 36% revenue growth, nor the $22.9 billion in annual revenue, nor even the extraordinary recovery from 5% growth in FY23 to 36% in FY25. What makes Sea exceptional is that management *chose* to suppress short-term profitability in 2023 to rebuild the foundations for long-term growth — cutting 7,000 employees, restructuring operations, and then methodically reaccelerating from a position of operational strength. This is not the behavior of managers riding a wave. This is the behavior of managers who *create* waves.

At 1.7x EV/TTM revenue and a PEG ratio of 0.8x, with $8.7 billion in net cash and $5.0 billion in annual operating cash flow, the stock is priced as though the company's best days are behind it. I believe they are ahead. The stock has declined 40% year-to-date on an earnings-per-share miss driven by credit provisioning and taxes — items that, far from signaling deterioration, actually confirm the quality and ambition of Monee's expansion. The market has confused a growing investment in credit infrastructure with a fundamental weakness.

**Conv

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# SE — Sea Limited: Stock Analysis (GauchoRico)

> Date: 2026-04-01
> Period: FY2025 / Q4 FY25
> Market cap: ~$47B | EV: ~$38.3B | Stock: ~$78 | EV/TTM Rev: 1.67x | EV/TTM OPCF: 7.6x

## Headline

Holy smokes — SE is growing revenue at 38% at a $23B annual run rate, generating $5B in operating cash flow, and trading at 1.67x EV/TTM revenue. That's not a misprint. This is a triple-engine platform dominating Southeast Asian e-commerce, fintech, and gaming, and it's priced like a cyclical retailer. The stock is down 40% YTD after a Q4 EPS miss ($0.63 vs $0.80 consensus) driven by credit provisioning and taxes — not a deterioration of the business. This looks like the kind of dislocation that creates generational entry points.

I haven't written about SE before, so let me walk through this from scratch. The MELI analogy is where my brain immediately goes — and the comparison is illuminating.

## The Numbers

```
                Revenue   YoY%    QoQ%    GM%     OpMrg%  NetMrg% EBITDA  EPS
Q4'22            $3,452    --      --     49.2%    9.9%   12.2%    $496   $0.72
Q1'23            $3,041   +5%    -12%    46.6%    4.1%    2.9%    $507   $0.15
Q2'23            $3,096   +5%     +2%    46.9%    9.2%   10.7%    $510   $0.54
Q3'23            $3,310   +5%     +7%    43.5%   -3.9%   -4.3%     $35  -$0.26
Q4'23            $3,617   +5%     +9%    42.2%   -1.6%   -3.1%    $127  -$0.19
Q1'24            $3,734  +23%     +3%    41.6%    1.9%   -0.6%    $401  -$0.04
Q2'24            $3,807  +23%     +2%    41.6%    2.2%    2.1%    $449   $0.14
Q3'24            $4,328  +31%    +14%    43.0%    4.7%    3.5%    $521   $0.24
Q4'24            $4,950  +37%    +14%    44.5%    6.2%    4.8%    $591   $0.39
Q1'25            $4,841  +30%     -2%    46.2%    9.4%    8.5%    $947   $0.65
Q2'25            $5,260  +38%     +9%    45.8%    9.3%    7.9%    $829   $0.65
Q3'25            $5,986  +38%    +14%    43.4%    8.0%    6.3%    $874   $0.59
Q4'25            $6,852  +38%    +15%    43.8%    8

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# SE — Sea Limited: Stock Analysis
### Bear (PaulWBryant) | March 2026

---

## What Sea Limited Does

Sea Limited operates three interconnected businesses across Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Brazil:

1. **Shopee** (73% of Q4 revenue) — the dominant e-commerce marketplace in Southeast Asia. Think Amazon, but for a region of 700M+ people with lower per-capita spending and fragmented logistics.
2. **Monee** (17% of Q4 revenue) — digital financial services (lending, payments, BNPL). The credit arm of the ecosystem, formerly SeaMoney.
3. **Garena** (10% of Q4 revenue) — digital entertainment, anchored by Free Fire, one of the most played mobile games globally (100M+ DAU). High-margin cash cow.

The thesis is flywheel: Shopee drives users, Monee monetizes them financially, Garena generates cash to fund the whole operation.

---

## Prior Beliefs

I haven't written about Sea Limited before. Applying my framework from scratch.

Going in, my priors were:
- E-commerce and fintech in emerging markets = structurally lower gross margins than the SaaS companies I normally own
- Southeast Asia competitive intensity is real (TikTok Shop, Lazada, Grab, Temu)
- Sea went through a brutal period in 2022-2023 (cost cuts, growth stall, stock down 90%+ from peak)
- The recovery since late 2023 has been impressive but I need to see if the numbers match the narrative

---

## The Numbers

### Revenue ($m) — Multi-Quarter Table

| | Q124 | Q224 | Q324 | Q424 | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 | Q425 |
| | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 3,734 | 3,807 | 4,328 | 4,950 | 4,841 | 5,260 | 5,986 | 6,852 |
| YoY % | +22.8% | +23.0% | +30.8% | +36.9% | +29.6% | +38.2% | +38.3% | +38.4% |
| QoQ % | +3.3% | +1.9% | +13.7% | +14.4% | -2.2% | +8.6% | +13.8% | +14.5% |
| Gross Margin % | 41.6% | 41.6% | 43.0% | 44.5% | 46.2% | 45.8% | 43.4% | 43.8% |
| Op Margin % [GAAP] | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.2

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# SE — Sea Limited: Stock Analysis

> Analyst: Saul Rosenthal
> Date: 2026-03-31
> Period: FY2025 Full Year / Q4 FY25
> Stock price: ~$78 | Market cap: ~$47B | EV: ~$38B | EV/Rev: 1.7x

## Verdict

Well friends, I have to tell you, this is an unusual situation for me. I've never owned Sea Limited. Back in September 2022, I highlighted MajorFool20's excellent analysis of why he *sold* SE — slowing growth, deteriorating profitability, Garena declining, cash burning. He was absolutely right at the time! But look what has happened since: Revenue reaccelerated from 5% growth (FY23) to 28% (FY24) to **36% (FY25) at $23 billion in scale**. Net income swung from losses to $1.6 billion. Operating cash flow hit $5 billion. The company beat its own FY25 guidance by 31%. And the stock is trading at 1.7x EV/Revenue and a PEG of 0.8.

I don't usually invest in e-commerce. The gross margins are lower than what I like (44% consolidated is structural — this isn't software). But here's the thing: **the world has changed**, and my approach has changed with it. I hold Nvidia at huge positions despite it being a semiconductor company. I hold Axon, Samsara, Amazon. When the revenue trajectory is this good, when all three business segments are accelerating, when the company is generating $5 billion in cash from operations — you have to pay attention. The numbers demand it!

**My verdict: This is a very interesting company that warrants serious consideration for a starter position.** The revenue acceleration at scale is one of the most impressive stories in large-cap growth investing. The valuation is, frankly, absurd for a company growing 38%. However, the 44% consolidated gross margin, the Garena franchise risk, and the credit provisioning burden temper my enthusiasm below "jump in with both feet." I'd want to see one clean quarter of execution in FY26 before building a significant position.

**Conviction: Medium-High.** Would consider a 3-5% starter.

## The Numbers — And What They Tell

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# SE — Sea Limited: Stock Analysis
## StockNovice (Joe) | April 2026

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## The Business (Plain English)

Sea Limited is a Singapore-based internet company that runs three businesses across Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Brazil:

1. **Shopee** — the dominant e-commerce marketplace in Southeast Asia (think Amazon for that region). 400M active buyers, 20M sellers, $127B in GMV last year. ~73% of total revenue.
2. **Monee** (formerly SeaMoney) — fintech/digital banking arm. Lending, BNPL, digital wallets. $9.2B loan book. ~17% of revenue and growing fastest.
3. **Garena** — gaming, primarily the Free Fire franchise (100M+ daily players). Cash cow at 54% EBITDA margins. ~10% of revenue.

Three different businesses, three different growth profiles, one stock. Here's how I'm thinking about it.

---

## The Numbers

| | Q124 | Q224 | Q324 | Q424 | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 | Q425 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 |
| Revenue ($m) | 3,734 | 3,807 | 4,328 | 4,950 | 4,841 | 5,260 | 5,986 | 6,852 |
| YoY % | +22.8% | +23.0% | +30.8% | +36.9% | +29.6% | +38.2% | +38.3% | +38.4% |
| QoQ % | +3.3% | +1.9% | +13.7% | +14.4% | -2.2% | +8.6% | +13.8% | +14.5% |
| Gross Margin % | 41.6% | 41.6% | 43.0% | 44.5% | 46.2% | 45.8% | 43.4% | 43.8% |
| Op Margin % [GAAP] | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% |
| Net Income ($m) | -23 | 80 | 153 | 238 | 411 | 414 | 375 | 411 |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.04 | $0.14 | $0.24 | $0.39 | $0.65 | $0.65 | $0.59 | $0.63 |
| EBITDA Margin % | 10.7% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 19.6% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 11.5% |

**FY25 full year:** $22.9B revenue (+36.4% YoY). $1.6B net income (+260%). $3.4B adj EBITDA (+75%). $5.0B operating cash flow.

---

## Segment Deep Dive

### Shopee (72.6% of Q4 revenue)

This is the core business. The numbers here are, frankly, staggering at scale:

| Metric | Q4 FY25 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| GMV | $36.7B | +28.6% |
| Orders | 4.0B | +30.5% 

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# SE — Sea Limited: Stock Analysis

> **Analyst:** muji (CMF_muji)
> **Date:** 2026-04-01
> **Data as of:** Q4 FY25 (Dec-2025)
> **Stock Price:** ~$78.15 | **Market Cap:** ~$47B | **Net Cash:** $8.7B | **EV:** ~$38.3B

---

## Platform Architecture Assessment

Here's the thing... SE is one of the most interesting "Scale in Platform" stories I've come across outside of pure SaaS. This isn't a conglomerate — it's a **platform flywheel** with three reinforcing engines, each one a building block for the others.

### The Three Engines

**1. Shopee (E-commerce) — The Traffic Engine**
- 400M active buyers, 20M sellers across SEA, Brazil, Taiwan
- SPX Express: proprietary logistics processing 30M+ parcels/day
- Same-day/instant delivery at double-digit order share in Bangkok & Jakarta
- Self-serve marketplace — no SI dependency, no enterprise sales cycle
- Shopee VIP: 7M subscribers (2x QoQ!), 30-40% spending uplift in Indonesia

**2. Monee (Fintech) — The Monetization Engine**
- SPayLater embedded in Shopee checkout = classic **building block** architecture
- 37M active credit users (+40% YoY), $9.2B loan book (+80% YoY)
- NPL at 1.1% despite 2x book growth — risk model drawing on Shopee transaction data
- Off-Shopee SPayLater +300% YoY — platform expanding beyond its origin !!
- Digital banking licences (SeaBank Indonesia, MariBank Singapore)

**3. Garena (Gaming) — The Engagement Engine**
- Free Fire: 100M+ DAU, $2.9B bookings (+37% YoY)
- 633M QAU, 58M QPU (9.2% pay ratio, up from 8.2%)
- IP collaboration playbook proven (NARUTO, Squid Game)
- EA Sports FC Mobile launched — most downloaded mobile game in Vietnam
- Esports moat: Guinness World Record tournament in Jakarta

### Platform Flywheel Mechanics

DING DING DING — this is what most analysts miss about SE. The three engines aren't separate businesses bolted together. They're **building blocks** that compound:

1. **Garena to Shopee:** 100M+ daily gamers funnel into e-commerce (user acquisition at near-zero margina

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# SE — Sea Limited: Stock Analysis

> Analyst: Bert Hochfeld
> Date: April 1, 2026
> Period: FY2025 full year / Q4 FY25
> Stock price: $78.15 | Market cap: $51.0B | EV: $42.2B

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## Summary

I haven't covered Sea Limited in the newsletter, but applying my framework, this is one of the more compelling risk/reward setups I have encountered in quite some time. Sea Limited delivered FY2025 revenue of $22.9 billion, growing 36.4% year-over-year, with GAAP net income of $1.6 billion and operating cash flow of $5.0 billion. The stock has declined approximately 40% from its 52-week high, driven by a Q4 EPS miss ($0.63 vs. $0.80 consensus) that was attributable to credit provisioning and tax expense, not to any deterioration in the business itself. At an EV/S of 1.84X for a company growing revenue at 38% with $5 billion in cash generation, the valuation is, quite simply, disconnected from fundamentals. The closest peer, MercadoLibre, trades at 2.9X EV/S growing at 39%. I would note that panics tend to be indiscriminate, and the current selloff has created what I believe to be a relative bargain of uncommon magnitude. Recommendation: Buy. Target weight: 3-4% in the high growth portfolio.

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## Headline KPIs (Q4 FY25)

- **Revenue:** $6,851.9M | YoY +38.4% | Sequential +14.5%
- **FY25 Revenue:** $22.9B (+36.4% YoY) — beat FY25 guidance floor of $17.5B by 31%
- **Gross Margin:** 43.8% [GAAP] (consolidated; Monee 87.5%, Garena 67%, Shopee 31%)
- **GAAP Operating Income:** $565.2M | Op Margin 8.2%
- **Adj EBITDA:** $787.1M | EBITDA Margin 11.5% (FY25: $3.4B, +75% YoY)
- **GAAP Net Income:** $410.9M | EPS $0.63 diluted (FY25: $1.6B, EPS $2.52)
- **OPCF:** $1,476M Q4; $5,025M FY25 (OPCF margin 21.9% TTM)
- **Net Cash:** $8.7B ($10.6B liquid assets less $1.8B convertible debt)
- **EV/S:** 1.84X | P/E: 31.0X | PEG: 0.85X | EV/OPCF: 8.4X
- **Rule of 40:** 58 (36.4% growth + 21.9% OPCF margin)

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## Business Overview

Sea Limited is a three-engine consumer internet platform he

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