When a company issues full-year revenue guidance and the most recently completed quarter's annualized run-rate already exceeds the guide midpoint, the guide is mechanically conservative — it requires sequential decline to be achieved rather than growth. This screen is distinct from the consistent-beat-magnitude pattern (which requires 4+ quarters of beat history) and from the Q1-FY coherence check (which uses Q1 guide data). It uses only Q4 actuals and the simultaneous FY guide, making it applicable on first-ever guidance issuance.
The signal is strongest when: (a) the company has no prior guidance track record, so there's no historical sandbagging baseline; (b) the sequential growth trend is positive or re-accelerating; and (c) management provides no structural rationale (channel disruption, seasonality, competition) for why Q1+ quarters would step back from Q4 levels.
Add an exit-rate check to every full-year guidance assessment: Q4 actual revenue × 4 vs. FY guide midpoint. If annualized Q4 run-rate > guide midpoint, classify the guide as a floor rather than a base case without needing historical beat data. Apply a bear/base/bull framework: bear = guide midpoint; base = exit-rate continuation with normal decel; bull = continuation of sequential re-acceleration. This is especially powerful for newly public or first-time-guiding companies where beat history doesn't exist to calibrate the consistent-beat-magnitude screen.