Investing analyses

# AXON — Earnings Review Q4 FY25 (Atlas)

> Original date: 2026-02-24 | Refreshed: 2026-04-28 (post Axon Week 2026 + market reset)
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-2025), reported Feb 24, 2026
> Market cap: ~$32.4B | Price ~$403 (down ~33% over 90 days, ~54% off 52w high $886)
> EV/TTM Rev: ~11.7x | Revenue growth: +38.5% YoY (Q4) / +33.5% (FY25)

## Verdict

Q4 FY25 is the cleanest "thesis-affirming" print of the FY25 cycle: revenue reaccelerated to 38.5% (highest in 12 quarters), net new ARR reversed its 4-quarter deceleration ($69M → $95M), Future Contracted Bookings jumped a record $3.0B sequentially to $14.4B, and management introduced credible 2028 targets ($6B revenue, 28% EBITDA, 60% FCF conversion, <2.5% dilution). The post-earnings price action — AXON down ~33% from the print to today — is a multiple compression story, not a fundamental break: Axon Week 2026 (April 7-10) delivered the promised "transformative" AI roadmap (Axon Vision, expanded Assistant, Axon 911 cloud). Conviction unchanged at **4/5**, but margin of safety is materially better than 60 days ago: EV/TTM Rev re-rated from ~14x at the print to ~11.7x while TTM revenue is still growing 33%+. The two structural watch items remain GAAP gross margin compression (57.9%, first sub-60 print since Q1 FY24) and SBC at 26% of Q4 revenue.

## Qualification Gate

| Criterion | Threshold | Actual | Pass |
|-----------|-----------|--------|------|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% | +38.5% (Q4), +33.5% (FY25) | ✅ |
| Gross margin | >60% | 57.9% GAAP / 61.1% Adj (Q4) | ⚠️ Adj passes, GAAP fails |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $796.7M | ✅ |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 24 quarters | ✅ |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | ~2.2% (FY25) | ✅ |
| GAAP profitability trajectory | Improving/positive | FY25 GAAP NI $124.7M (+); Q4 op -$50M (SBC + $32M severance) | ⚠️ Mixed |

**Gate: PASS with caveats.** GAAP GM dipping below 60% and Q4 GAAP op loss are the yellow flags. Adj GM 61.1% remains above bar; FY25 GAAP NI positive.

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# AXON Q4 FY25 — Refresh Post Axon Week & Drawdown (WSM)

**Date:** 2026-04-28
**Quarter:** Q4 FY25 (Dec 2025) — refresh, not new print
**Prior thesis:** Strengthening (Q4 FY25 review, Feb 25)
**Updated thesis:** **Strengthening — and now valuation finally cooperates**

---

## Verdict

The thesis got stronger and the price got cheaper. That is the setup I sit on my hands for. Stock down ~33% in 90 days from ~$700 to ~$403 with **zero company-specific bad news**. Axon Week (Apr 7-10) delivered exactly what the 2028 model needed: Axon Vision (real-time AI on live video), CJIS-compliant Axon Assistant rolled across the ecosystem, Axon 911 cloud EOC infrastructure shipping. EV/TTM Rev compressed from ~14x at print to ~11.7x. FY26 EV/Rev ~9.0x. For a company growing 33%+, FCB $14.4B (+43%), NRR 125%, 25.5% EBITDA, 2028 line-of-sight to $6B/28% — this is the cleanest entry the market has given me on AXON since the Prepared deal. **I am adding to equity. The LEAPS stay put.**

---

## What Has Actually Changed Since Feb 25

Nothing in the fundamentals. Two things in the world.

### 1. Axon Week Delivered the AI Roadmap (Apr 7-10, Nashville)

| Launch | What | My read |
|---|---|---|
| **Axon Vision** | Real-time AI on live video — object/event detection, threat awareness | The ecosystem moat extending into the live operations layer. Body camera + ALPR + Fusus all feeding one AI inference layer. |
| **Axon Assistant — expanded** | CJIS-compliant, rolled across full ecosystem (not just officer-facing) | Compliance was the unlock for federal / state agency adoption. 500 customers in year one was small ball — this is the scale-up. |
| **Axon 911** | Cloud EOC infrastructure — Carbyne stack now under Axon brand | The 911 product I bought the Jan'28 LEAPS for is shipping. On schedule. |

→ Everything Rick Smith promised on the Q4 call landed. No slippage. The "responsible AI as competitive superpower" framing from the Q4 letter now has product behind it. Underpromise / overdeli

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# AXON Enterprise — Q4 FY25 Earnings Review (Refresh)
**Analyst:** Philip A. Fisher
**Date:** 2026-04-28
**Quarter under review:** Q4 FY25 (ended December 31, 2025; reported February 24, 2026)
**Prior Phil analysis:** 2026-02-25 (`AXON_earnings-review_Q4_FY25.md`) — Thesis Intact / Strengthening, 13/15 Fifteen Points
**Intervening event:** Portfolio Review 2026-04-07 — thesis status revised to Weakening on SBC/margin concern; trim from 10% to 7%
**Atlas baseline (refreshed 2026-04-28):** Read. Conviction 4/5; valuation re-rated to Fair; Axon Week 2026 deliveries validated.

---

## Why a Refresh

I do not customarily revisit a quarter twice. But two months have passed since the original Q4 FY25 print, and three things have changed materially:

1. **Axon Week 2026 (April 7-10, Nashville)** delivered the "transformative" capabilities management committed to — Axon Vision (real-time AI on live video, native ALPR), expanded Axon Assistant (CJIS-compliant, ecosystem-wide), and Axon 911 (cloud EOC infrastructure). The product roadmap is now visible, not promised.
2. **The stock is down approximately 33%** from the print ($886 high → ~$403 today). Enterprise value to trailing revenue has compressed from ~14x to ~11.7x. No fundamental information emerged during the drawdown to explain it; the move is multiple compression in a high-multiple growth cohort.
3. **My own portfolio review on April 7** revised thesis status to Weakening and recommended trimming from 10% to 7% on SBC and gross margin concerns. With two more months of evidence, I owe the file a clear accounting: was that trim correct, or did I err against my own doctrine?

This refresh answers that third question explicitly.

---

## The Doctrinal Question

Fisher's central instruction on outstanding companies — those that pass thirteen or more of the Fifteen Points — is unambiguous: *"If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is — almost never."* Not on bear-market fea

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# AXON Q4 FY25 Earnings Review — GauchoRico

> **Original print date:** 2026-02-24 | **Refreshed:** 2026-04-28 (post Axon Week + ~33% drawdown)
> **Verdict at print:** Holy smokes!! Revenue reaccel to 39%. Best quarter in 12+ quarters.
> **Verdict today:** Thesis intact and arguably strengthened. Stock down ~33% since print (~$700 → ~$403) on multiple compression, not bad news. **This is a fat pitch for LEAPS.**

---

## The Headline (Unchanged Since Feb)

$797M in Q4 FY25 revenue. **38.5% YoY** — highest growth rate in 12 quarters, breaking the eight-quarter band of 30-35%. **5.9% beat over guidance midpoint** ($750-755M), strongest beat in recent memory. FY25 closed at **$2,779M (+33.5%)** — fourth consecutive year above 30% growth. ARR sequential add reversed to **$95M** (vs $69M Q3, ending a four-quarter deceleration). NRR hit **125% record**. FCB jumped **$3.0B sequentially to $14.4B** — that is the largest single-quarter contracted bookings add in Axon history.

Management dropped a credible 2028 target: **$6B revenue, 28% Adj EBITDA, 60% FCF conversion, <2.5% annual dilution**. Their prior 3-year target ($2B / 25% by 2025) was beaten on both axes ($2.8B / 25.5%). I trust them.

---

## What's Changed Since the Print (Feb → Apr 2026)

This is the part that matters now. When I wrote my Feb 25 review I said: *"I'd add on any meaningful pullback (10%+). The LEAPS opportunity would be compelling if we get a broad market dip that takes AXON back to $350-400 range."*

We are there.

| Event | Date | Detail |
|-------|------|--------|
| Axon Week 2026 | Apr 7-10 | **Delivered** the "transformative" AI roadmap I was watching for. Three product launches: |
| — Axon Vision | Apr 7 | Real-time AI on live video; ALPR / object-detection native to the Axon ecosystem. **Direct counter to Flock Safety.** |
| — Axon Assistant (expanded) | Apr 7 | CJIS-compliant, ecosystem-wide, BOLO and case-research workflows. ~500 customers in year one. |
| — Axon 911 | Apr 7 | Cloud-native 

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# AXON -- Q4 FY25 Earnings Review

> Analyst: Bear (PaulWBryant)
> Original: 2026-02-25 | Refreshed: 2026-04-28 (post Axon Week 2026 + multiple compression)
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec 2025) | Reported: Feb 24, 2026
> Sources: Q4 FY25 press release, shareholder letter, investor deck, scout brief, Atlas refresh, prior stock analysis

---

## April 28, 2026 Refresh — Where We Are Now

Two months after the print, three things have happened that change my action even if they don't change my thesis:

1. **The stock has come in hard.** AXON is at ~$403, down ~33% over 90 days and ~54% off the $886 52-week high. EV/TTM Rev compressed from ~14x at the print to ~11.7x. Nothing in reported fundamentals deteriorated during this window. This is multiple compression in a high-multiple growth name during a broader de-rate.
2. **Axon Week 2026 (April 7-10, Nashville) delivered.** Three product launches lined up with what the Q4 letter promised: Axon Vision (real-time AI on live video, native ALPR/object-detect), expanded Axon Assistant (CJIS-compliant, ecosystem-wide), and Axon 911 cloud-native EOC. The "transformative AI roadmap" was not vapor.
3. **Sell-side action is mixed-to-constructive.** TD Cowen reiterated Buy with $825 PT (April 15) post-pullback. Average analyst PT $758. No company-specific bad news has surfaced. The drawdown is a sentiment story, not a fundamental one.

I wrote two months ago: "I'd initiate at 4-5% now, with a plan to add toward 6-8% on the next quarter if [GM stabilizes, SBC trends to 18%, growth holds 30%+, stock stays below $500]." The stock is at $403. Q1 FY26 reports in early May. The risk profile has improved on price, but my qualitative gates (GM, SBC) are not yet verified for Q1. I am not pre-positioning above 5% on price alone.

**Updated action:** Hold initiation in the 4-5% band. If Q1 FY26 confirms (a) revenue growth holding 30%+, (b) adj GM stable >61%, (c) SBC tracking to FY26 guide (~17% of revenue), I add toward 7-8% even if the stock has ra

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# AXON Enterprise — Earnings Review Q4 FY25
**Date:** 2026-02-25 (original) | **Refreshed:** 2026-04-28 (post Axon Week 2026 + ~33% drawdown)
**Quarter:** Q4 FY25 (period ending December 31, 2025)
**Persona:** Saul Rosenthal (SaulR80683)
**Prior Saul Analysis:** Q3 FY25 (2026-02-22) — Thesis Intact/Strengthening
**Atlas Baseline:** Read and consulted — generally agree, my own emphasis noted below

---

## Verdict (refreshed Apr-28)

The Q4 FY25 quarter itself was one of the cleanest blowouts I have ever seen. Revenue *reaccelerated* to +39% YoY (highest in twelve quarters!). Net new ARR *reversed* the four-quarter decel. FCB added **THREE BILLION DOLLARS** in a single quarter. NRR hit a record 125%. Adj EBITDA $206m at 25.9% margin — record on both. Management put out 2028 targets ($6B revenue, 28% EBITDA) that, given their track record of beating 3-year commitments, may well be conservative.

What's changed since I wrote this on Feb 25? **The price.** Not the business. The stock is down ~33% from the print and ~54% off its 52-week high of $886. EV/TTM revenue has re-rated from ~14x to ~11.7x. Forward EV/Revenue is now ~9x. And during this 60-day drawdown, the leading indicators have done nothing but improve: Axon Week 2026 (April 7-10) delivered the promised "transformative" AI roadmap with three new product launches (Axon Vision, expanded Assistant, Axon 911 cloud).

This is a multiple compression story, not a fundamental break. **Thesis: INTACT / STRENGTHENING.** And for the first time in a long time, AXON's valuation is actually *fair* rather than aspirational. My 12.4% total position (6.1% equity + 6.3% LEAPS) stays — and unlike at the Feb-24 print, I would consider modest adds on further weakness. That's how much my view of margin-of-safety has improved at this price.

---

## The Numbers — What Really Matters

| | Q1_FY25 | Q2_FY25 | Q3_FY25 | Q4_FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | **Dec-25** |
| Revenue ($m) | 604 | 669 | 711 | **797*

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# AXON — Q4 FY25 Earnings Review (April 2026 Refresh)
**StockNovice (Joe)**
**Date:** 2026-04-28
**Quarter:** Q4 FY25 (refresh post Axon Week 2026 + 33% drawdown)

> Spanky-wave GIF goes here. This is a refresh on my Feb 25 review. Same quarter, different price tag, plus Axon Week is now in the rearview. Going to write this one with the discipline that matters most when a starter you sized up gets cut by a third — keep the reasoning honest, don't argue with the data, and don't argue with the price either.

---

## Where I Stand Going In

I sized AXON up to a 5-8% starter on Feb 25 after the Q4 print blew the doors off — $797M revenue, $7.4B annual bookings, $14.4B FCB, NRR 125%, 2028 targets unveiled. Three of my four watch items hit. Thesis was Strengthening.

Today, two months later:
- Stock is down ~33% in 90 days (~$700 → ~$403). Off 54% from the $886 high.
- Axon Week (April 7-10) launched **Axon Vision** (real-time AI on live video — Flock-style ALPR/object-detect from inside the ecosystem), **expanded Axon Assistant** (CJIS-compliant, ecosystem-wide), and **Axon 911** (cloud EOC infrastructure on Carbyne).
- TD Cowen trimmed PT early April, then on April 15 reiterated **Buy with $825 PT.** 16-analyst consensus: Strong Buy, average PT $758.
- No company-specific bad news. Bookings, ARR, NRR all improved over the window.

So the question for me — the only question that matters — is whether the data has changed or only the price has changed. Let me be honest about it.

---

## The "Is" vs "Could Be" Re-Test

Two months ago I argued AXON's "is" case was already strong: dominant share, $1.35B ARR growing 35%, NRR 125%, $14.4B contracted backlog, four consecutive 30%+ years. Nothing in the last 60 days has weakened the "is" — if anything, Axon Week strengthened the "could be":

**What's now closer to "is" than two months ago:**
- **Axon Vision shipped.** I had this in the "could be" column at Q3 — it was speculation about whether AXON could enter ALPR/object-detect

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# AXON — Q3 FY25 Earnings Review
**muji (CMF_muji) | February 22, 2026**

Long AXON 6.1% equity + 6.3% LEAPS Jan'28 $440C

---

## Links
- Press Release: Axon Enterprise Q3 2025 (Nov 4, 2025)
- Transcript: Q3 2025 Earnings Call (Nov 4, 2025)
- Scout Brief: briefs/AXON_earnings-review_2026-02-21/
- Atlas Baseline: ~/.agents/skills/atlas/analyses/AXON/AXON_earnings-review_Q3_FY25.md

---

## The Number That Matters

Seven consecutive quarters of 30%+ revenue growth. That is the headline. But IMHO, the real story is in the leading indicators — because reported revenue is the *lagging* signal here.

**ARR: $1,252m +41% YoY ^^**
**FCB: $11,400m +39% YoY !!**
**NRR: 124% +1pp YoY ^^**

ARR and FCB are both outpacing reported revenue by 8-9 percentage points. This is a textbook software inflection signal. The revenue acceleration is baked in — it's just a matter of when the FCB converts.

---

## Financial Metrics

| | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | |
| Revenue ($m) | 544 | 573 | 611 | 627 | 711 | +30.6% |
| S&S Revenue ($m) | 216 | 233 | 258 | 281 | 305 | +41.2% ^^ |
| S&S Mix | 39.7% | 40.7% | 42.2% | 44.8% | 42.9% | +3.2pp |
| Gross Margin [Non-GAAP] | 62.1% | 62.1% | 62.4% | 63.0% | 62.7% | +0.6pp |
| EBITDA Margin | 26.6% | 24.8% | 25.4% | 27.4% | 24.9% | -1.7pp |
| Op Margin [GAAP] | 4.4% | -2.7% | -1.4% | -0.1% | -0.3% | -4.7pp |
| FCF ($m) | 68 | 225 | 1 | 111 | 33 | -51% |
| FCF Margin | 12.5% | 39.3% | 0.1% | 17.7% | 4.7% | -7.8pp |
| EPS [Non-GAAP] | $1.45 | -- | $1.41 | $1.30 | $1.17 | -19.3% |

| | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARR ($m) | 887 | 945 | 1,005 | 1,083 | 1,252 | +41.2% ^^ |
| Net New ARR ($m) | -- | 58 | 60 | 78 | 169 | !! |
| NRR | 123% | 123% | 122% | 122% | 124% | +1pp |
| FCB ($m) | 8,200 | 9,600 | 10,200 | 10,700 | 11,400 | +39.0% !! |
| Deferred Revenue ($m) | 723 | 822 | 895 | 936 |

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# AXON Enterprise -- Q3 FY25 Earnings Review

> **Bert Hochfeld | TickerTarget**
> Date: 2026-02-23
> Quarter: Q3 FY25 (Sep-25)
> Stock Price: ~$440 | Market Cap: ~$36.5B | Shares: 83M diluted

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## Summary

I haven't covered Axon Enterprise in the newsletter, but applying my framework, this is precisely the kind of company I find intellectually stimulating -- a genuine platform compounder delivering its seventh consecutive quarter of 30%+ revenue growth while maintaining a 25% adjusted EBITDA margin. The Q3 print was a modest beat-and-raise, which is exactly the cadence you want to see from a management team employing deliberately undemanding estimates. The real story is in the leading indicators: ARR accelerated to 41% YoY while revenue grew 31%, and future contracted bookings hit $11.4 billion, up 39% YoY. That divergence -- leading indicators outrunning revenue recognition -- is among the most bullish patterns in growth investing. At approximately 13X forward EV/S on estimated 28-30% 3-year CAGR, the shares sit at the upper end of the cohort range but below where I would call them overvalued given the visibility and platform durability. After the recent 29% pullback from January highs, the risk-reward has improved materially.

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## Headline KPIs

- **Revenue:** $711M; +31% YoY; +6.3% sequential; 7th consecutive quarter 30%+
- **Software & Services Revenue:** $305M; +41% YoY; 43% of total mix (up from 40% a year ago)
- **Connected Devices Revenue:** $405M; +24% YoY
- **ARR:** $1.252B; +41% YoY -- accelerating from 39% in Q2 and 34% in Q1
- **Net New ARR:** $69M (sequential deceleration from $79M in Q2, $103M in Q1 -- seasonal pattern)
- **NRR:** 124% (Software & Services); ticking up from 123% a year ago
- **Adj EBITDA:** $177M; 24.9% margin (vs. guide ~24.7%)
- **Non-GAAP Net Income:** $98M; 13.7% margin; Non-GAAP EPS $1.17
- **GAAP Net Income:** -$2.2M (SBC-driven loss; $146M quarterly SBC)
- **FCF:** $33.4M; 4.7% margin (lumpy; Q4 typically strongest)
- 

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