atlasStrong
2026-04-03 · earnings-review · Samsara delivered a milestone quarter: first GAAP profitability, record large-customer additions, emerging product inflection, and the highest net new ARR growth rate in 7 quarters — all against a seasonally softer Q3 · Conviction 4/5
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# IOT — Earnings Review Q3 FY26 (Atlas)
> Date: 2026-04-03
> Quarter: Q3 FY26 (ended Nov 1, 2025), reported Dec 4, 2025
> Market cap: ~$27B (at report date) | EV/TTM Rev: ~17x | Revenue growth: 29.2% YoY
## Verdict
Samsara delivered a milestone quarter: first GAAP profitability, record large-customer additions, emerging product inflection, and the highest net new ARR growth rate in 7 quarters — all against a seasonally softer Q3. Every leading indicator is accelerating while the lagging revenue YoY metric optically decelerates. This is a textbook bullish divergence. The 19% non-GAAP operating margin (guided 16%) confirms genuine operating leverage. Q4 guidance of $421-423M implies continued conservatism (historical 4-5% beat pattern). **Conviction: 4/5.**
## Qualification Gate
| Criterion | Threshold | Actual | Pass? |
|-----------|-----------|--------|-------|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% | 29.2% Q3 (FY26 run-rate ~30%) | PASS (borderline; ARR at 29%, net new ARR accelerating +24% YoY) |
| Gross margin | >60% (>70% preferred) | 76.7% GAAP / 78% Non-GAAP | PASS |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $416M | PASS |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 12 quarters in brief, 27 in DB | PASS |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | ~3.5% annual (SBC/rev declining 27% to 19%) | PASS |
| GAAP profitability trajectory | Improving or positive | First-ever GAAP net income (+$7.8M) | PASS |
**Gate verdict: PASS.** Revenue growth is borderline at the quarterly level, but ARR and net new ARR momentum are robust. NRR at ~115%, FCF margin at 13%, and GAAP profitability inflection all support the qualification.
## Six-Factor Score
| Factor | Rating | Detail |
|--------|--------|--------|
| Growth | Adequate | Revenue +29.2% YoY (Q3). ARR +29% YoY. Net new ARR +24% YoY (+23% cc), highest growth rate in 7Q. FY26 full-year guide implies ~28% revenue growth. |
| Trajectory | Improving | Net new ARR: 2nd consecutive quarter of accelerating sequential growth. $100K+ ARR >$1B, +36% YoY (accel
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# IOT — Samsara | Stock Analysis
> **Date:** 2026-04-06
> **Quarter:** Q4 FY26 (ended January 31, 2026)
> **Price:** ~$31.58 | **Market Cap:** ~$18.3B | **EV:** ~$17.1B
> **Position:** None currently. Was long 5% in 2024.
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## Thesis
**Samsara is the best risk/reward in my investable universe right now.** Textbook bullish divergence: revenue YoY optically decelerating while every leading indicator is accelerating — net new ARR (+28% YoY), $100K+ customer ARR (+37%), $1M+ ARR (+56%), emerging products (8%→23% of ACV in three quarters). At 10.3x run-rate P/S with 78% gross margins, 21% non-GAAP operating margin, and a 42.3 Rule of 40 score, the market is pricing a decelerating 28% grower when the underlying demand is re-accelerating. This mispricing resolves in FY27 as bookings flow through to revenue.
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## The Numbers
### Revenue QoQ Grid — Years Across, Quarters Down
This is how I read trajectory. Compare each quarter to the same quarter in prior years.
| | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Q1** (Apr) | 16.9% | 13.4% | 9.5% | 1.6% | 6.0% | Recovering from FY25 anomaly |
| **Q2** (Jul) | 15.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | Stable at 7% |
| **Q3** (Oct) | 12.7% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | Mild deceleration |
| **Q4** (Jan) | 10.5% | 9.9% | 16.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | Normalising post-FY24 spike |
**Reading this grid:** Q4 FY26 at 6.8% QoQ looks "slow" vs Q4 FY24's 16.3%, but that Q4 was an anomaly (massive Q4 seasonal flush). Against the non-anomalous Q4s (FY22: 10.5%, FY23: 9.9%), yes, there's deceleration. But at $444M/quarter, 6.8% QoQ annualises to **30% growth.** And critically, Q4 QoQ *accelerated* sequentially within FY26 (Q3: 6.3% → Q4: 6.8%). That's the first intra-year Q3→Q4 acceleration since FY24.
### Revenue YoY Grid
| | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Q1** | 62.6% | 43.3% | 37.4% | 30.7% |
| **Q2** | 52.0% | 42.9% | 36.8% | 30.5% |
| **Q3** | 49.2% | 39.9% | 35.6% | 29.2% |
| *
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Rolling earnings (raw)
# IOT — Samsara — Rolling Earnings Summary
> FY ends: January 31
> Last updated: 2026-04-06
> Window: Q1_FY26 (Apr-25) through Q4_FY26 (Jan-26)
## Trajectory
Samsara's leading indicators are accelerating at scale while revenue YoY optically decelerates — classic bullish divergence. Net new ARR grew 28% YoY in Q4_FY26 (3rd consecutive quarter of acceleration, highest in 8Q, record $144.8M). Second consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability. Emerging products at 23% of net new ACV and >$100M ARR. $1M+ ARR customers +56% YoY (3rd consecutive acceleration). FY27 guided 21-22% but management has historically beaten initial guide by ~6%.
## 4-Quarter Financial Grid
| | Q1_FY26 | Q2_FY26 | Q3_FY26 | Q4_FY26 |
| | Apr-25 | Jul-25 | Oct-25 | Jan-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 366.9 | 391.5 | 416.0 | 444.3 |
| YoY % | 30.7% | 30.5% | 29.2% | 28.4% |
| Beat vs Guide | +4.5% | +5.2% | +4.3% | +5.3% |
| Non-GAAP GM % | 79% | 78% | 78% | 77.3% |
| Non-GAAP OpM % | 13.9% | 15.2% | 19.2% | 20.7% |
| GAAP Net Income ($M) | (22.1) | (16.8) | 7.8 | 22.0 |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.11 | $0.12 | $0.16 | $0.18 |
| FCF ($M) | 45.7 | 44.2 | 55.8 | 61.7 |
| FCF Margin % | 12.5% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 13.9% |
| ARR ($M) | 1,535 | 1,640 | 1,745 | 1,890 |
| Net New ARR ($M) | 73 | 105 | 105 | 144.8 |
| NNARR YoY % | -1% | +19% | +24% | +28% |
| $100K+ Adds | 154 | 133 | 219 | 204 |
| $1M+ Txns | 12 | 17 | 17 | 131 (record) |
| Verdict | Clean beat. Conservative guide. | Strong. NNARR accelerating. | **Milestone.** First GAAP profit. Record adds. | **Outstanding.** Record NNARR. Platform transition confirmed. 2nd GAAP profit. |
## Promise Tracker
| Promise | Source Q | Status | Evidence |
|---------|---------|--------|----------|
| FY26 revenue $1,523-1,533M | Q4_FY25 | **Exceeded** | Actual $1,618.6M (+5.9% vs initial mid). Raised 3x during year. (revised from Exceeding by wsm) |
| FY26 Non-GAAP op margin 16% | Q4_FY25 | **Exceeded** | FY26 actual 17.4%. Q4 at 20.7% (all-time high). (revised from Exceeding by wsm) |
| NRR ~115% target | Ongoing | Met | Maintained every quarter. Core customer threshold raised to $25K+ in Q4. |
| Invest more internationally in FY27 | Q3_FY26 | In Progress | Europe ARR accelerating 4 consecutive Q. 15% of Q4 net new ACV from non-US. Canada highest NNARR growth in 10Q. |
| FY27 initial guide > consensus | Q3_FY26 | **Delivered** | FY27 guided $1,965-1,975M (+21-22%). CFO: "de-risked downside scenario." (revised from Pending by wsm) |
| Larger deals may introduce Q-to-Q variability | Q3_FY26 | Noted | Q4 had 131 $1M+ ACV transactions (record). No variability concern materialised this Q. |
| FY27 GAAP profitability (full year) | Q4_FY26 | Pending | New. First full-year GAAP profitable target. |
| FY27 Non-GAAP OpM 19% | Q4_FY26 | Pending | New. +2pp from FY26. |
| SBC below 20% of revenue in FY27 | Q4_FY26 | Pending | New. Q4 FY26 already at 17.8%. |
## Language Shift Monitor
| Theme | Q1_FY26 | Q2_FY26 | Q3_FY26 | Q4_FY26 |
|-------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| Growth narrative | "Durable efficient growth" | "Durable efficient growth" | "Durable and efficient growth" + "milestone quarter" | **"Outstanding year of durable and efficient growth"** — FY summary language |
| AI positioning | AI unlocking value | AI accelerating innovation | "Age of Intelligence" — AI agents | **"AI agents"** — Safety Coach launched, 3-phase framework (Connect/Analyze/Automate) |
| Competitive stance | Platform of choice | Platform of choice | Platform of choice + system of record | **"Proprietary data asset"** — moat language, 25T+ data points, network effects |
| International | Continued investment | Accelerating | "Exciting long-term opportunity" | **"80M commercial vehicles"** — North America + Western Europe TAM sizing |
| Profitability | Improving trajectory | Improving trajectory | "First quarter of GAAP profitability" | **"Second consecutive quarter"** — GAAP profit normalised, not milestone. FY27 full-year GAAP profitable guided. |
| Enterprise warning | -- | -- | "Larger deals have inherently longer and less predictable sales cycles" | **Maintained but no adverse signal.** Record 131 $1M+ ACV transactions. |
Notable shift: Q4 shifted from "milestone" language to "normalised profitability" language — GAAP profit is now expected, not celebrated. AI agent narrative deepened (3-phase framework, Safety Coach details, roadmap). Data moat language intensified.
## Analyst Concern Tracker
| Concern | First Raised | Status | Latest |
|---------|-------------|--------|--------|
| Revenue growth deceleration | Q1_FY25 | Active | Q4 at 28.4% YoY. FY27 guided 21-22%. Offset by NNARR accelerating 3Q consecutive (+28% YoY). Leading vs lagging divergence. |
| NRR opacity | Q2_FY24 | Active | Still "approximately 115%." 20+ quarters identical. Core customer threshold raised to $25K+ in Q4. No incremental granularity. |
| SBC dilution | Q1_FY24 | Improving | SBC/rev declined to 17.8% Q4 (from 27% in FY23). FY27 guided below 20%. Absolute SBC flat at ~$78M/Q while revenue scales. |
| Q4 FY25 deceleration (25.2%) | Q4_FY25 | Resolved | Q4 FY26 at 28.4% confirmed the trough. |
| Liberation Day deal slippage | Q1_FY26 | Resolved | No lingering impact. |
| Enterprise deal variability | Q3_FY26 | Active | CFO maintained warning. Q4 had record 131 $1M+ transactions — no adverse signal yet. Monitor Q1 FY27 for seasonal enterprise trough. |
| GM compression | Q4_FY26 | New | Non-GAAP GM dipped from 78% to 77.3% QoQ. NAND pricing cited. Management says factored into FY27 guide. Monitor. |
## Source Log
| Date | Persona | Changes |
|------|---------|---------|
| 2026-04-03 | atlas | Created _ROLLING.md from Q3_FY26 scout brief. Populated 4Q grid (Q4_FY25–Q3_FY26), all trackers, and analyst concerns. |
| 2026-04-06 | wsm | Updated window to Q1_FY26–Q4_FY26. Added Q4_FY26 to grid. Updated Promise Tracker (FY26 promises → Exceeded, FY27 promises added). Updated Language Shift and Analyst Concern tracke