Investing analyses

TGTX TG Therapeutics, Inc.
SectorHealthcare/Biotech
Mkt cap—
Allocation—
Statuswatchlist
ScreenSTRONG_PASS 5/6
Atlas3.5/5

atlasAdd

2026-04-03 · earnings-review · Q4 FY25 was the strongest quarter in TGTX's history -- $192 · Conviction 3.5/5

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# TGTX -- Earnings Review Q4 FY25 (Atlas)

> Date: 2026-04-03
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec 2025)
> Market cap: ~$5.3B | EV/TTM Rev: 8.8x | Revenue growth: +78% YoY (Q4), +87% FY25

## Verdict

Q4 FY25 was the strongest quarter in TGTX's history -- $192.6M revenue (+78% YoY, +19.1% QoQ), $50.5M operating income (26.2% margin), record new patient enrollments, and QoQ re-acceleration that broke a three-quarter deceleration trend. The beat-and-raise pattern continues: FY25 landed $616M vs initial $565M guide. FY26 guidance of $888M midpoint implies 44% growth, likely conservative given the 8-10% historical beat rate. Gross margin compression to 80.2% (8 consecutive quarters of decline) is the only blemish, but op margin expansion to 20% FY25 demonstrates operating leverage offsetting the COGS headwind. Post-quarter, the $750M Blue Owl refinancing and $300M buyback authorization signal management conviction. **Conviction: 3.5/5** -- unchanged from stock analysis. Execution is excellent; single-product concentration remains the structural cap.

## Qualification Gate

| Criterion | Threshold | TGTX Q4 FY25 | Status |
|-----------|-----------|---------------|--------|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% (>40% pref) | +78% Q4, +87% FY25, +44% guided FY26 | PASS |
| Gross margin | >60% (>70% pref) | 80.2% Q4, 83.6% FY25 [GAAP] | PASS |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $192.6M | PASS |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 16 quarters in DB | PASS |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | -9.0% (buyback-driven reduction: 175M to 159M) | PASS |
| GAAP profitability | Improving or positive | $123.3M FY25 op income (20.0% margin), 4th consecutive profitable Q | PASS |

All gates passed. TGTX is a top-decile growth profile: 80%+ gross margins, accelerating absolute dollar growth, and structural GAAP profitability in only the third year of commercial operations.

## Six-Factor Score

| Factor | Rating | Detail |
|--------|--------|--------|
| Growth | Strong | +87% FY25 YoY, +78% Q4 YoY. Absolute dollar 

*…truncated*

wsmAdd

2026-04-08 · earnings-review · Conviction 3.5/5

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# TGTX — Q4 FY25 Earnings Review

> Date: 2026-04-06
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec 2025) | Call: February 26, 2026
> Price: $33.53 | Market Cap: ~$5.3B | EV: ~$5.4B

## Verdict

**Record quarter. Revenue re-accelerating in absolute dollars. Thesis constructive — but this is new territory for me.**

I haven't written about TGTX before, so applying my framework fresh. Q4 FY25 delivered $192.6M (+78% YoY, +19.1% QoQ), smashing the implied ~$176M from the raised FY guide. More importantly, **incremental revenue dollars expanded to $30.9M** — an all-time high — breaking a three-quarter QoQ deceleration trend. Record new patient enrollments. FY26 guide of $888M midpoint implies +44% growth, and management has beaten initial guidance by 8-18% for two consecutive years. The math says actual FY26 could land $960-975M.

Gross margin compression to 80.2% (8 consecutive quarters of decline from 91.5%) would normally make me very uncomfortable. But context matters: this is manufacturing scale-up COGS, not competitive pricing erosion. Op margin expanded from 12.7% (FY24) to 20.0% (FY25) — operating leverage is real. Rule of 40 at 104. This is not a broken margin story; it's a biotech investing in manufacturing capacity while revenue doubles.

The single-product concentration (96% BRIUMVI) is the structural risk that caps conviction. At <6% of the anti-CD20 infusion TAM, this is early launch — but if fenebrutinib (oral) gets approved 2028-2029, the ceiling gets lower.

**-> Constructive. Not yet a position — need to see Q1 FY26 execution and SC BRIUMVI data trajectory before committing capital.**

---

## The Numbers

### Revenue Trajectory Grid (QoQ %)

| | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | +7700% | +44.3% | +11.7% | Normalising post-launch |
| Q2 | +106.4% | +15.7% | +16.7% | Stable -> slight acceleration |
| Q3 | +929.8% | +14.1% | +14.6% | Stable |
| Q4 | -73.5%* | +29.0% | +19.1% | **Re-acceleration from Q3** |

*Q4 FY23 distorted by Q3 FY23 $157M license pa

*…truncated*
Rolling earnings (raw)
# TGTX — Rolling Earnings Summary

> Last updated: 2026-04-03
> Window: Q1 FY25 — Q4 FY25
> FY ends: December (calendar)

## Financial Grid

| | Q1_FY25 | Q2_FY25 | Q3_FY25 | Q4_FY25 |
| | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 120.9 | 141.1 | 161.7 | 192.6 |
| QoQ % | +11.7% | +16.7% | +14.6% | +19.1% |
| YoY % | +90.4% | +92.0% | +92.7% | +78.0% |
| Gross Margin % | 87.2% | 86.6% | 82.6% | 80.2% |
| Op Margin % | 7.1% | 24.7% | 18.2% | 26.2% |
| Op Income ($m) | 8.6 | 34.8 | 29.4 | 50.5 |
| Net Income ($m) | 5.1 | 28.2 | 390.9* | 23.0 |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.03 | $0.17 | $2.43* | $0.14 |
| BRIUMVI US ($m) | ~115 | ~135 | 152.9 | 182.7 |
| Verdict | Solid Q1; guide set conservatively | Strong; peak op margin | GM concern; $340M tax benefit noise | Record Q; QoQ reacceleration; beat+raise |

*Q3 FY25 NI includes $339.8M non-recurring deferred tax asset valuation allowance release.*

**FY2025 totals:** Revenue $616.3M (+87.3% YoY) | Op Income $123.3M (20.0% margin) | Adj NI ~$107.4M

**Trajectory:** Revenue accelerating in absolute dollars ($30.9M incremental in Q4 vs $20.6M in Q3). YoY % decelerating from ~92% to 78% per law of large numbers. QoQ re-accelerated in Q4 (+19.1% vs +14.6%), breaking a 3-quarter deceleration trend. Gross margin compression is the primary concern — 8 consecutive quarters of decline.

## Promise Tracker

| Quarter | Promise | Outcome | Status |
|---------|---------|---------|--------|
| Q2 FY25 | FY2025 revenue ~$560-575M | $616.3M actual | Met — beat by ~8-10% |
| Q3 FY25 | FY2025 revenue raised to ~$600M | $616.3M actual | Met — beat by $16.3M (+2.7%) |
| Q3 FY25 | SC BRIUMVI Phase III enrollment ongoing | ~75% enrolled by Q4 FY25 | In progress |
| Q4 FY25 | FY2026 revenue $875-900M | -- | Pending |
| Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 BRIUMVI US $185-190M | -- | Pending |
| Q4 FY25 | ENHANCE topline data mid-2026 | -- | Pending |
| Q4 FY25 | SC BRIUMVI pivotal data year-end 2026/Q1 2027 | -- | Pending |
| Q4 FY25 | R&D + SG&A (ex-SBC) ~$350M FY2026 | -- | Pending |
| Q4 FY25 | SC manufacturing costs ~$100M FY2026 | -- | Pending |
| Q4 FY25 | Azer-cel Phase 1 data H2 2026 | -- | Pending |

## Language Shift Monitor

| Topic | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 |
|-------|---------|---------|---------|
| Demand/revenue | Confident — guide initiated at $560-575M | Confident — raised to ~$600M | Highly confident — "record" enrollments; +19% QoQ |
| Competition | Not addressed | Not addressed | Not addressed in summary |
| Margins | Neutral — GM stable ~86-87% | Cautious — compression to 82.6% | Muted — 80.2% not explicitly flagged; SC costs framed as investment |
| Capital allocation | -- | -- | Assertive — "will not hesitate to add leverage to reduce share count" |
| Pipeline | Standard updates | SC enrollment progressing | Strong — "nearly double TAM" (SC), multiple readouts in 2026 |

**Pattern:** Management tone on revenue is consistently confident-to-assertive. On margins, increasingly evasive — the 11pp GM compression over 8 quarters has not been prominently addressed. Capital allocation language became unusually aggressive in Q4 FY25.

## Analyst Concern Tracker

| Concern | First Raised | Current Status |
|---------|-------------|----------------|
| Single-product concentration risk | Ongoing | Active — 96% revenue from BRIUMVI in one indication |
| Gross margin compression | Q3 FY25 | Active — 8 consecutive quarters declining; management attributes to manufacturing scale-up |
| Fenebrutinib competitive threat | Q3 FY25 (SA articles) | Active — all 3 Phase III met endpoints; filing 2026-2027 |
| FCF negativity despite profitability | Q2 FY25 | Active — FY25 OCF -$24.8M; working capital build from rapid growth |
| Leverage increase | Q4 FY25 | Active — $750M Blue Owl term loan (March 2026; replaced $250M; SOFR+4.75%, 2031 maturity). $300M buyback auth. $250M accordion for up to $1B total (revised from New by atlas) |

## Source Log

| Date | Persona | What was changed |
|------|---------|-----------------|
| 2026-04-01 | atlas | Created _ROLLING.md with FY25 4-quarter window. Populated financial grid, promise tracker, language shift monitor, analyst concerns from scout brief + stage outputs. |
| 2026-04-03 | atlas | Earnings review Q4 FY25. Updated leverage concern: $750M Blue Owl term loan (March 2026, replaced $250M; net +$500M). Buyback tripled to $300M. ~$38M repurchased at $28.98 avg. Updated last-updated date. |
| 2026-04-06 | wsm | First WSM coverage. Q4 FY25 earnings review. Thesis: New — Constructive (3.5/5). Key diff vs Atlas: trajectory is "Improving" not "Flat" — QoQ re-acceleration + $30.9M record incremental adds. GM compression is manufacturing scale-up, not structural. Risk/reward asymmetric to upside contingent on SC BRIUMVI data. |
FQCalRev (M)YoYGMOp MFCF M
Q4_FY25 Dec-2025 192.6 78.0% 80.2% 26.2% —
Q3_FY25 Sep-2025 161.7 92.7% 82.6% 18.2% —
Q2_FY25 Jun-2025 141.1 92.0% 86.6% 24.7% —
Q1_FY25 Mar-2025 120.9 90.4% 87.2% 7.1% -23.7%
Q4_FY24 Dec-2024 108.2 145.9% 85.8% 27.6% —
Q3_FY24 Sep-2024 83.9 -49.4% 88.9% 14.8% —
Q2_FY24 Jun-2024 73.5 356.5% 88.7% 12.0% —
Q1_FY24 Mar-2024 63.5 714.1% 91.5% -14.6% -12.9%
Q4_FY23 Dec-2023 44.0 43900.0% 82.0% -28.4% —
Q3_FY23 Sep-2023 165.8 165700.0% 97.9% 69.2% —
Q2_FY23 Jun-2023 16.1 2583.3% 88.2% -277.6% —
Q1_FY23 Mar-2023 7.8 290.0% 88.5% -474.4% —
Q4_FY22 Dec-2022 0.1 — — -77500.0% —
Q3_FY22 Sep-2022 0.1 — 100.0% -35000.0% —
Q2_FY22 Jun-2022 0.6 — — -6483.3% —
Q1_FY22 Mar-2022 2.0 — — -3345.0% -3435.0%