Investing analyses

# SOFI — Stock Analysis (Atlas)

> Date: 2026-04-08
> Most recent quarter: Q4_FY25 (Dec-2025, reported Jan 30, 2026)
> Market cap: ~$20.9B | EV: ~$18.0B | EV/TTM Adj Rev: 5.0x | Fwd P/Adj E: 25.3x
> TTM adj net revenue: $3.591B (+38% YoY) | EBITDA margin: 31.4% (Q4 ATH)
> Price: $16.39 (Apr 7, 2026) | YTD: -40% | From Nov-25 peak ($32.73): -50%

## Verdict

SoFi is a profitable, diversified financial platform executing a multi-vector growth strategy — and the stock just got cut in half. The Q4_FY25 numbers were unambiguously strong: first $1B revenue quarter, first $1B EBITDA year, Rule of 40 at 68, Financial Services segment approaching Lending as the top revenue driver. The business thesis is intact and strengthening. What changed is the market: the Muddy Waters short report (March 17) created a credibility overhang on reported charge-off rates, Morgan Stanley slapped a $6 price target citing tariff-driven credit stress, and the stock joined the broader fintech selloff. At $16.39, the forward P/Adj E is 25.3x on management's $0.60 FY26 guide with a 38-42% EPS CAGR through FY28. The binary question is whether Q1_FY26 earnings (late April/early May) confirm or refute the Muddy Waters charge-off allegation. If SoFi's reported 2.80% charge-off rate holds, the stock is materially undervalued. If Muddy Waters is right about 6.1%, the thesis breaks. I lean toward the former: Noto bought $1.5M in shares across two tranches including on MW report day, vintage cohort analysis shows improving loss curves, and OCC regulatory audits provide independent verification. But this is a conviction call, not certainty.

**Conviction: 4/5.** Thesis intact, strengthening operationally, attractively valued on a 2-3 year view. MW overhang introduces event risk resolving within 3-4 weeks.

## Qualification Gate

| Criterion | Threshold | Actual | Pass? |
|-----------|-----------|--------|-------|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% | +39.6% Q4; +38% FY25 | PASS |
| Gross margin | >60% | 84.2% (ban

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# SOFI — Q4 FY25 Earnings Review

> **Verdict: Beat-and-raise. Thesis intact and strengthening.**
> Date: 2026-03-30 (updated with March 26 LPB expansion)
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-2025) | ER: Jan 30, 2026
> Price: $15.05 (Mar 29, 2026) | Market cap: ~$19.6B | Shares: 1,346M
> Run-rate adj net revenue: $4.05B | FY26 guide: $4.655B (+30%)
> FY26 adj EPS guide: $0.60 → **Forward P/E: 25x** | P/TBV: 2.15x
> EV: ~$16.5B (net cash $3.1B) | EV/Run-rate Rev: ~4.0x

---

**SoFi just printed its first $1B revenue quarter, announced $3.6B in new LPB partnerships four days ago, and the stock is down 17% from its February high.** That's the setup. $1,025M GAAP revenue (+39.6% YoY), $1,013M adjusted net revenue (+37% YoY), $318M EBITDA (31.4% margin — ATH), record 1M new members in a single quarter, and FY26 guidance of $4.655B / $0.60 EPS that the market has decided to ignore because of macro noise and a paywall change going live tomorrow. At $15.05, you're paying 25x forward earnings for a company guiding 30% revenue CAGR and 38-42% EPS CAGR through 2028. PEG < 0.7. The business is working. The stock is not. Those divergences don't last.

**Post-earnings catalyst (March 26):** SoFi announced $3.6B in new LPB agreements — a leading global bank ($1B+), a financial services and insurance group ($600M/12 months), and a top-5 global private asset management firm (up to $2B over 2 years). This validates the LPB as a repeatable institutional franchise, not a one-off experiment. At $775M run-rate growing 3x YoY and now with $3.6B in new committed flow, LPB alone could be a $1.5B+ revenue business by end-2026.

---

## The Numbers

### Revenue QoQ Grid (Years Across, Quarters Down)

| Quarter | FY22 QoQ | FY23 QoQ | FY24 QoQ | FY25 QoQ | Same-Q Delta (FY24→25) |
|---------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------------------|
| **Q1** | +21.4% | +11.4% | +20.1% | +10.7% | -9.4pp |
| **Q2** | +9.7% | +5.5% | -7.2% | +10.8% | **+18.0pp** |
| **Q3** | +17.0% | +7.9% | +16.5% |

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# SOFI — Q4 FY25 Earnings Review (Phil Fisher)

> **Date:** 2026-03-30
> **Quarter:** Q4 FY25 (Dec-2025)
> **ER Date:** January 30, 2026
> **Stock Price at Review:** ~$17.80 (down ~45% from Nov-2025 peak of $32.50)
> **Prior Analysis:** None (initial Phil Fisher coverage)

---

## I. Opening Assessment

I have found, over many years of evaluating companies, that the most rewarding investments share a quality I call being "fortunate because they are able." These companies do not merely ride the tailwinds of their industry — they create their own growth through the excellence of their management, the depth of their research, and the relentless pursuit of new avenues for expansion. SoFi Technologies, in its Q4 FY25 results, presents precisely the kind of evidence that compels a careful student of growth investing to pay serious attention.

This was a quarter of firsts: the first $1 billion revenue quarter, the first million-member addition in a single quarter, the first $10 billion origination quarter. But what draws my attention is not the milestones themselves — it is what they reveal about the underlying engine. A company growing adjusted net revenue at 37% year-over-year to $1.013 billion while simultaneously expanding EBITDA margins to 31% (the highest in its history) is exhibiting the kind of combined growth-and-profitability trajectory that separates outstanding companies from merely good ones.

Yet I must be candid: this is also a company navigating meaningful risks — a subscription paywall transition launching tomorrow (March 31, 2026), a narrowing bank charter moat, a large technology platform client departure, and $3.2 billion in equity raises that have diluted shareholders 17% in a year. The question before me is whether SoFi's management is building something genuinely durable, or whether the impressive growth is masking structural vulnerabilities.

---

## II. Scuttlebutt Findings

I have always believed that the most valuable research comes not from annu

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# SOFI — Earnings Review: Q4 FY25 (GauchoRico)

> **Date:** 2026-03-31
> **Quarter:** Q4 FY25 (ending Dec 31, 2025)
> **Report Date:** January 30, 2026
> **Price at analysis:** ~$16.90 (down ~35% YTD, ~48% from Nov 2025 peak of $32.50)
> **Market cap:** ~$22.7B | Shares: 1,346M | TBV/share: $7.01 | P/TBV: 2.4x
> **TTM adj net revenue:** $3.591B | EV: ~$19.6B | EV/TTM Rev: 5.5x
> **FY26 guided adj EPS:** $0.60 | Forward P/E: 28.2x

---

## The Headline: How Can This Stock Not Go Higher?

Holy smokes -- SoFi just delivered its first $1 billion revenue quarter, its first $1 billion EBITDA year, a Rule of 40 score of 68, and the stock is sitting here at $16.90?! Down 35% year-to-date while the business is accelerating?!

Let me be very clear about the central question for SOFI right now: **Is 30%+ revenue growth with expanding margins sustainable for the next 3 years, and if so, is the stock absurdly cheap at 28x forward earnings?**

The answer, based on the Q4 data, is almost certainly yes to both. Let me show you the math.

---

## The Valuation Math -- Leading With the Point

This is where I want to start, because everything else is in service of this question.

**Current valuation:**

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Price | $16.90 |
| Market cap | $22.7B |
| Net cash (cash $4.9B - debt $1.8B) | $3.1B |
| EV | ~$19.6B |
| TTM adj net revenue | $3.591B |
| EV/TTM Rev | 5.5x |
| FY26 guided adj EPS | $0.60 |
| Forward P/E (FY26) | 28.2x |
| PEG ratio (28.2x / 30% growth) | 0.94 |

**Now here is where it gets really interesting.** Management guided a 38-42% adj EPS CAGR from FY25 to FY28. Two scenarios:

**Scenario 1: Management Delivers (30% rev CAGR, 40% EPS CAGR)**

| | FY25 (Actual) | FY26 (Guided) | FY27 (Proj) | FY28 (Proj) |
|--|--|--|--|--|
| Adj Net Revenue | $3.59B | $4.66B | $6.05B | $7.87B |
| Adj EBITDA Margin | 29% | 34% | 35% | 36% |
| Adj EBITDA | $1.05B | $1.60B | $2.12B | $2.83B |
| Adj EPS | $0.39 | $0.60 | $0.84 | $1.18 |
| P/E on today's $16

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# SOFI — Earnings Review: Q4 FY25

> Analyst: Bear (PaulWBryant)
> Date: 2026-03-30
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (Dec-2025)
> Price: ~$17.80 (Mar 25, 2026) | Market Cap: ~$24.0B
> TTM Revenue: $3.613B (GAAP) | TTM Adj Net Revenue: $3.591B
> P/TTM Revenue: ~6.7x | P/FY26E Revenue (~$4.655B): ~5.2x
> FY26E P/E: ~30x ($0.60 adj EPS guide) | P/TBV: ~2.5x ($7.01 TBV/share)
> Shares: 1,346M diluted (+17% YoY)

---

## Prior Beliefs

I haven't written about SoFi before. Let me be clear: I came into this with skepticism. SoFi is a bank holding company, not a SaaS company. Banks typically don't compound at 30%+ revenue growth for extended periods. The bear case on SoFi has always been that it's a rate-sensitive personal lender dressed up in fintech clothing, and eventually credit losses or NIM compression would reveal the fragility underneath.

Going into Q4 FY25, given Q3's trajectory, my expectations were:

| Metric | Prior Belief | Rationale |
|--------|-------------|-----------|
| Adj Net Revenue | ~$960-980M | Residual of $3.54B FY25 guide minus Q1-Q3 actuals |
| EBITDA Margin | ~29-30% | Continuation of Q3's 28.8%, modest expansion |
| Members Added | ~800-900K | Strong Q3 pace of ~897K |
| Financial Services Revenue | ~$430-440M | Growing 60-70%+ YoY trajectory |
| FY26 Revenue Guide | $4.3-4.5B | ~25% growth — typical conservative step-down |
| Credit Quality | Stable-to-slightly-worse | Macro pressure on consumer loans |
| Tech Platform | Stable accounts | Large client headwind already visible |

---

## Updated Beliefs: The Numbers vs. Expectations

| Metric | Expected | Actual | Delta | Assessment |
|--------|----------|--------|-------|------------|
| Adj Net Revenue | ~$960-980M | $1,012.8M | +$33-53M / +3-5% beat | Better. First $1B quarter. |
| GAAP Revenue | — | $1,025.1M (+39.6% YoY) | — | Strong YoY re-acceleration |
| EBITDA | ~$280-295M (~30%) | $317.6M (31.4%) | +$23-38M | Better. ATH margin. |
| Gross Margin | ~82-83% | 84.2% | +1-2pp | Better. Near ATH (84.5% Q1

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# SOFI -- Earnings Review: Q4 FY25 (Saul)

> Date: 2026-03-31
> Quarter: Q4_FY25 (fiscal Q4, ending Dec-2025)
> Price: ~$17.80 (Mar-25-2026) | Down ~32% YTD, ~45% from Nov-2025 peak of $32.50
> Market cap: ~$24B | Shares: 1,346M diluted | TBV/share: $7.01 | P/TBV: ~2.5x
> TTM adj net revenue: $3.591B | FY26 guide: $4.655B (+30%)
> FY26 adj EPS guide: $0.60 | Forward P/E: ~30x

---

## Verdict

This was, quite simply, a blowout quarter. Really, really impressive numbers. SoFi just posted its first-ever billion-dollar quarter -- $1.013 billion in adjusted net revenue, up 37% year over year -- and did it while expanding every single margin metric to all-time highs. EBITDA margin hit 31.4%. Gross margin 84.2%. GAAP operating margin 18.1%, up nearly 10 points from a year ago. A million new members in a single quarter! 20 million products! A Rule of 40 score of 68%!

Let me be clear: I'm not typically a fintech or bank investor. That's not where I've made my money. But the world has changed, and when I see a company growing revenue at 37% at this scale, with margins expanding, with a business mix shifting rapidly toward capital-light fee revenue, and with management hitting or beating every target they set -- well, I follow the money, the results. And the results here are exceptional.

The stock is down 32% from year-end. The market is focused on the $3.2 billion in equity raises and 17% share dilution. I understand the concern -- I don't love dilution. But tangible book value per share rose 57% to $7.01 despite the dilution. That tells you the raise was accretive. The CEO just bought a million dollars of stock at $17.50-$18.20. That's not the action of a man worried about his company.

**Thesis: Strengthening.** This is a new coverage initiation for me. I'm impressed.

---

## The Numbers -- The Table IS the Analysis

### Revenue Trajectory (Adjusted Net Revenue -- Management's Primary Metric)

| Quarter | Adj Net Rev | YoY% | QoQ% | QoQ $ Add |
|---------|------------|-

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# SOFI — Earnings Review: Q4 FY25

> **Analyst:** StockNovice (Joe)
> **Date:** 2026-03-31
> **Quarter:** Q4 FY25 (Dec-2025)
> **Report date:** January 30, 2026
> **Stock price:** ~$17.80 (Mar 25, 2026) | Down ~33% YTD, ~45% from Nov peak of $32.50
> **Market cap:** ~$24B | Shares: 1,346M diluted
> **TBV/share:** $7.01 (+57% YoY) | P/TBV: ~2.5x

---

## The Headline

Here's how I'm thinking about this one: SoFi just posted what might be the most complete quarter a fintech has ever printed. First $1 billion revenue quarter. First $1 billion EBITDA year. Ninth consecutive GAAP-profitable quarter. Records across every metric that matters — members, products, originations, fee revenue, EBITDA, margins. And the stock is down a third from its November high.

I haven't written about SOFI before, so this is a fresh look. No priors to anchor against, no thesis to defend. Just the numbers and my framework. Let me walk through it.

---

## The Numbers — "Is" vs "Could Be"

This is where I start. Is this company delivering right now, or is it just telling me a story about what it *could* become?

**Verdict: This is an "Is" company. Full stop.**

### Revenue

| Metric | Q4 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY24 | YoY Change |
|--------|---------|---------|---------|------------|
| GAAP Revenue | $1,025.1M | $961.6M | $734.1M | +39.6% |
| Adj Net Revenue | $1,012.8M | $949.6M | $739.1M | +37.0% |
| QoQ Growth | +6.6% | +12.5% | +5.3% | — |
| Beat vs Implied Guide | +5.1% ($48M) | — | — | — |

Full year FY25: $3.613B GAAP, $3.591B adjusted. That's +38% YoY. At this scale — we're talking about a company that added nearly a billion dollars of incremental revenue in a single year — 38% growth is exceptional. This isn't a $200M startup that grew 40%. This is a $3.6B company that grew 38%.

The YoY trajectory is worth calling out:

- Q1 FY25: +19.7% (tough comp)
- Q2 FY25: +42.8%
- Q3 FY25: +37.9%
- Q4 FY25: +39.6%

That Q1 was the trough. The re-acceleration from Q1 to Q4 is clean. Not a one-quarte

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# SOFI — Q4 FY25 Earnings Review (muji)

> Date: 2026-03-31
> Quarter: Q4_FY25 (Dec-2025)
> Price at analysis: ~$17.80 (Mar 25, 2026 close)
> Market cap: ~$24B | Shares: 1,346M diluted
> TTM adj net revenue: $3.591B | Rule of 40: 68

---

## Links

- [Q4 FY25 Press Release](https://www.prnewswire.com/) (Jan 30, 2026)
- [Earnings Call Transcript — Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/) (Jan 30, 2026)
- Atlas baseline: `analyses/SOFI/SOFI_earnings-review_Q4_FY25.md` — solid six-factor scoring, I agree with the 4/5 conviction
- WSM analysis: captures the FS/Lending crossover re-rating thesis well, flagged the $3.6B LPB expansion
- Bear: correctly flagged SoFi Plus paywall and charter narrowing — both real risks
- Phil: Fifteen Points assessment, LPB as scuttlebutt validation

---

## The Numbers

**Revenue:**
- Adj net revenue: **$1,012.8M** !! — first $1B quarter in company history
- YoY: **+37.0%** (adj basis); GAAP revenue $1,025.1M, **+39.6%** YoY ^^
- QoQ: +6.6% (seasonal deceleration from Q3's +12.5% — normal for fintech/bank)
- FY25 YoY progression: +19.7% -> +42.8% -> +37.9% -> +39.6% ^^
- Beat vs implied guide: **+$51M / +5.1%** !!

**Segment Revenue (Q4 FY25):**
- Financial Services: **$456.7M, +78% YoY** !!!! — the rocket engine
- Lending: $498.7M, +19% YoY (adj $486.5M, +15%)
- Technology Platform: $122.4M, +19% YoY
- FS is now **92% of Lending revenue** — crossover imminent, possibly Q1 FY26

**Fee-Based Revenue:**
- **$443.3M, +53% YoY** !! — 44% of total adj net revenue
- LPB: **$193.7M** (+2.9x YoY, +15% QoQ), annualizing at **~$775M** !!
- Interchange: +66% YoY, ~$22B annualized spend
- Fee-based annualized: **~$1.8B** — this is the capital-light engine

**Profitability:**
- Gross margin: **84.2%** (near ATH, +1.7pp YoY) !!
- EBITDA: **$317.6M, 31.4% margin** — ATH, first time above 30% !!
- EBITDA growth: **+60% YoY** — growing nearly 2x revenue growth = massive operating leverage
- Op income [GAAP]: $185.3M, **18.1% margin** (+9.9pp YoY) !!
- Adj net in

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# SOFI — Q4 FY25 Earnings Review

> **Analyst:** Bert Hochfeld (TickerTarget)
> **Date:** 2026-03-31
> **Quarter:** Q4 FY25 (Dec-2025)
> **Price at analysis:** $15.46 (March 30, 2026)
> **Market cap:** ~$20.8B (diluted) | Shares: 1,346M
> **Net cash:** $3.1B | EV: ~$17.7B
> **TTM adj net revenue:** $3.591B | EV/TTM Rev: ~4.9X
> **FY26 adj net revenue guide:** $4.655B | EV/FY26 Rev: ~3.8X
> **FY26 adj EPS guide:** $0.60 | Forward P/E: ~25.8X
> **FY26 adj EBITDA guide:** $1.6B | EV/FY26 EBITDA: ~11.1X

---

## Summary

SoFi reported what I would characterize as a genuinely exceptional quarter — first $1B revenue quarter in company history, first $1B EBITDA year, ninth consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability, all-time-high margins across every profitability metric, and 1 million new members added in a single quarter. Adjusted net revenue of $1.013B beat the implied Q4 guide by 5.1%, while adj EBITDA of $318M at a 31.4% margin exceeded expectations by roughly $32M. The FY26 guide of $4.655B (+30% growth) and $0.60 adj EPS was above consensus. At the current price of $15.46 — down ~15% from the February level on a combination of Muddy Waters noise, Iranian conflict risk, and the indiscriminate SaaSpocalypse selling — the stock trades at a forward P/E of 25.8X with a PEG of 0.64X using management's 38–42% EPS CAGR guidance through 2028. That is a relative bargain by any standard I apply. I haven't covered SoFi in the newsletter historically, but applying my framework, the valuation dislocation is significant enough to warrant serious attention.

**Headline KPIs:**
- Adjusted net revenue: $1,012.8M (+37% YoY) — first $1B quarter; beat implied guide by 5.1%
- GAAP net revenue: $1,025.1M (+39.6% YoY)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $317.6M; 31.4% margin (ATH) — above long-term 30% target
- Adjusted net income: $173.5M; 17.1% margin; adj EPS $0.13
- GAAP net income: $173.5M; 16.9% margin; EPS $0.13 (ninth consecutive profitable Q)
- Members: 13.65M (+35% YoY); +1.0M in quarter (record)


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