Investing analyses

# FIGR — Earnings Review (Atlas)

> Date: 2026-02-21
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (preliminary) + Q3 FY25 (reported)
> Market cap: $3.8B | EV/TTM Rev: 7.5x | Revenue growth: 91% YoY (Q4)

## Verdict

FIGR is the most interesting growth story I have reviewed in the fintech space. Revenue is accelerating — 12% to 31% to 55% to 91% YoY over four quarters — on a blockchain-native lending marketplace with 75% market share in RWA tokenization, 51% EBITDA margins, and a valuation of 7.5x TTM revenue. The anti-thesis centers on IPO recency, customer concentration, SBC magnitude, and the inherent cyclicality of HELOC origination in a rate-sensitive environment. **Conviction: 4/5.** The growth-adjusted valuation is among the cheapest in the portfolio. The February 26 earnings call is the next critical data point.

## Qualification Gate

| Criterion | Threshold | FIGR | Pass? |
|-----------|-----------|------|-------|
| Revenue YoY growth | >30% (>40% preferred) | 91% (Q4), 55% (Q3) | PASS |
| Gross margin | >60% | Not disclosed (fintech model; EBITDA margin 51%) | N/A |
| Revenue per quarter | >$50M | $160M (Q4) | PASS |
| Data availability | 4+ quarters | 12 quarters in DB | PASS |
| Share dilution | <10% annual | ~60% (IPO dilution, one-time) | WATCH |
| GAAP profitability trajectory | Improving or positive | Net income $13M Q4, $89.8M Q3; EBITDA $81.5M Q4 | PASS |

The dilution flag is IPO-related (went public Sept 2025), not recurring. Ongoing dilution from SBC is the real concern — $40M in Q4 FY25 alone (64% of FY total). Must verify run-rate on Feb 26 call.

## Six-Factor Score

| Factor | Rating | Detail |
|--------|--------|--------|
| Growth | Strong | 91% YoY (Q4), 55% (Q3). TTM revenue $507M, up from ~$341M prior year TTM. |
| Trajectory | Accelerating | 12% → 31% → 55% → 91% over Q1-Q4 FY25. Marketplace volume +131% YoY outpaces revenue. |
| Margins | High | EBITDA margin 55.4% (Q3), 51% (Q4). Operating margin 33.7% (Q3). Adj EBITDA margin expanded from (5.6%) FY23 to ~49% 

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# FIGR — Stock Analysis (March 2026)

**Date:** 2026-03-27 | **WSM** | **Market cap:** ~$7.1B | **Price:** ~$32 | **52w range:** $25–$78

---

## Verdict

**FIGR is the cheapest growth story in my portfolio and the thesis is strengthening with every data point.** Revenue accelerating 12% → 31% → 55% → 91% YoY across FY25, EBITDA margins at 52% on a trajectory to 60%+, marketplace volume growing 131% (faster than revenue), the platform shift is real (Figure Connect at 54% of volume), and you're paying 11x run-rate P/S — a growth-adjusted 0.12x — for all of it. Two management transparency concerns (SBC communication failure, data breach disclosure gap) keep this from being a no-brainer. But the numbers are screaming.

**Action: Hold. Add aggressively on any pullback below $30.**

---

## The Numbers

### Revenue Grid (8 Quarters)

| | Q124 | Q224 | Q324 | Q424 | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 | Q425 |
| | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 75.3 | 80.8 | 101.0 | 83.9 | 84.5 | 106.1 | 156.4 | 159.9 |
| QoQ % | — | 7.3% | 25.1% | -17.0% | 0.8% | 25.5% | 47.4% | **2.3%** |
| YoY % | — | — | — | — | 12.3% | 31.4% | 54.8% | **90.8%** |

### QoQ Seasonality Grid — The Critical Read

| Quarter | FY24 | FY25 | Δ (Seasonal Improvement) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | — | 0.8% | — |
| Q2 | 7.3% | 25.5% | **+18.2pp** |
| Q3 | 25.1% | 47.4% | **+22.3pp** |
| Q4 | -17.0% | +2.3% | **+19.3pp** |

This is the chart that matters. Q4 is FIGR's seasonally weakest quarter (winter HELOC originations drop). In FY24, Q4 was -17% QoQ. In FY25, Q4 was **+2.3% QoQ** — a 19pp seasonal improvement. Figure Connect is dampening the lending cycle. The flat-looking sequential number isn't stalling; it's a structural improvement vs seasonality.

### Revenue Composition — Where the Story Is

| Component ($m) | Q4 FY24 | Q4 FY25 | YoY Δ | % of Δ | Mix Q4'24 | Mix Q4'25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Ecosystem & Tech Fees** 

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# FIGR — Earnings Review (Q4 FY25 Preliminary)
**Phil Fisher Analysis | February 22, 2026**

> *Note: Q4 FY25 full results and earnings call are scheduled for February 26, 2026. This review is based on the preliminary results announced February 13, 2026, the press release covering Q3 FY25 actuals, and all available scuttlebutt research. I intend to revisit after the February 26 call — particularly on the questions I flag below around management transparency, SBC policy, and partner count.*

---

## Prior Beliefs

No prior Fisher analysis exists on FIGR. This is a first view. Atlas's analysis (conviction 4/5) is noted and serves as a useful fact baseline. My own conclusions diverge in several respects, particularly on management character and on how to weigh the integrity question against the growth evidence.

---

## Scuttlebutt Findings

I have found, over many years of studying growth companies, that the most revealing intelligence rarely comes from the annual report. It comes from the people who deal with the company day to day — customers who have experienced the product, employees who have built it, competitors who must contend with it.

For Figure, this research yields a picture that is simultaneously compelling and unsettling. Let me take each category in turn.

**Customers.** The customer verdict on Figure's HELOC product is clear and consistent. Trustpilot shows 4.8/5 stars; Investopedia named it Best Overall HELOC for 2025. The practical proof is in the numbers: loan applications completed in five minutes, funding in five days, approval to funding in a median of ten days against an industry average of forty-two. These are not marginal improvements — they represent a fourfold reduction in cycle time. When a product meaningfully outperforms on the dimension customers care about most (speed and certainty), that is the scuttlebutt signal I take most seriously.

**Employees.** Glassdoor shows 3.9 out of 5 stars from 217 reviews, with 75% of employees recommendi

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# FIGR — Figure Technology Solutions
## Q4 FY25 Earnings Review (Preliminary)
**Date:** 2026-02-22 | **By:** GauchoRico | **Status:** Preliminary — full results & call Feb 26, 2026

---

## Headline

Revenue accelerating to 91% YoY with 51% EBITDA margins on a blockchain-native lending platform that has gone from essentially zero to a $507M TTM revenue business in under four years. The valuation — 7.5x TTM revenue on 91% growth — is the cheapest growth-adjusted multiple I can find anywhere in my portfolio. This is a **preliminary review**; full Q4 results and earnings call are Feb 26. Plenty left to confirm, but the setup is extraordinary.

---

## Revenue Table (12 Quarters)

| | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 |
| Revenue ($M) [Non-GAAP] | 75.3 | ~88 | ~101 | ~84 | ~95 | ~116 | 156.4 | ~160 |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — | — | +12% | +31% | +55% | +91% |
| QoQ Growth | — | — | — | ~(17%) | — | — | +35% | +2% |
| Adj EBITDA ($M) [Non-GAAP] | — | — | — | — | — | — | 86.4 | 80–83 |
| Adj EBITDA Margin | — | — | — | — | — | ~35% | 55.4% | 49.8–53.4% |
| GAAP Net Income ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | 89.8 | 12.5–13.5 |
| Net Margin [GAAP] | — | — | — | — | — | — | 57.4%* | ~8% |

*Q3 net margin inflated by IPO-related gains. Q4 GAAP NI depressed by $40M SBC charge.

**Note:** Q1-Q2 FY25 and Q1-Q4 FY24 figures for intermediate quarters reconstructed from YoY growth rates. Q4'25 is preliminary/unaudited. Full audited Q4 and FY25 results on Feb 26.

---

## Key Metrics — Q4 FY25 (Preliminary)

| Metric | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 (Prelim) | QoQ | YoY |
|--------|---------|-----------------|-----|-----|
| Revenue | $156.4M | ~$160M | +2% | +91% |
| Adj EBITDA | $86.4M | $80–83M | (4%) | +75% |
| EBITDA Margin [Non-GAAP] | 55.4% | 49.8–53.4% | slight contraction | massive expansion |
| GAAP Net Income | $89.8M | $12.5–13.5M | (86%) | n/m |
| Ma

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# FIGR — Figure Technology Solutions
## Earnings Review: Q4 FY25 (Full Results)
**Bear (PaulWBryant) | 2026-02-27**

---

## Prior Beliefs (Going Into Feb 26 Call)

From my prelim review on Feb 22, I had five specific items that would determine whether this thesis moves from "Forming" to "Intact":

| # | Prior Belief / Watch Item | Threshold |
|---|---------------------------|-----------|
| 1 | SBC normalization | Q4's $40M must be explained as one-time. Need run-rate guidance. |
| 2 | Active partner count (246→200 decline) | Must stabilize or improve. If continued decline, serious concern. |
| 3 | FY26 guidance | Quantitative targets. Sets Prior Beliefs baseline going forward. |
| 4 | Customer concentration | Any improvement from top-2 = 76% of UPB. |
| 5 | Figure Connect trajectory | Continued scaling. Platform thesis depends on this line. |

I also stated:
- **What would make me add:** Clear SBC explanation, partner stabilization, FY26 guidance showing acceleration, concentration improvement.
- **What would make me trim:** Partner decline continuing, SBC at $40M/Q, revenue/margin deterioration, management vagueness.

Let me now compare.

---

## Updated Beliefs (After Feb 26 Results)

| # | Prior Belief | Result | Assessment |
|---|-------------|--------|------------|
| 1 | SBC one-time | **Confirmed.** Guided $21M/Q forward. One-time advisor grants + graded vesting. | Met. Clear and specific. But it's a promise — need Q1 to verify. |
| 2 | Partner count | **307.** Up 25% QoQ. The "200" in prelim data was apparently wrong or different metric. | Exceeded. This was my second-biggest concern. Resolved emphatically. |
| 3 | FY26 guidance | **Partial.** Net take rate 3.5-4%. EBITDA target 60%+. "Year of the first lien." No revenue number. | Partially met. Targets are useful but I still lack a revenue baseline to track against. |
| 4 | Customer concentration | **No update.** No new top-2 data disclosed. | Not met. Still a structural risk. |
| 5 | Figure Connect | **54%

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# FIGR — Earnings Review (Saul)

> Date: 2026-02-22
> Quarter: Q3 FY25 (reported) + Q4 FY25 (preliminary)
> Task type: Earnings Review
> Atlas baseline: Read and used

---

## Verdict

The numbers are, frankly, preposterous in the best possible way. Revenue accelerating from 12% to 31% to 55% to 91% YoY over four consecutive quarters. Marketplace volume growing at 131% — faster than revenue, which means the platform is building head of steam. EBITDA margins of 51-55% while growing at 91%. I have been investing for decades and I can count on one hand the number of companies that grow at 90%+ while generating 50%+ EBITDA margins.

But I am not ready to call this a conviction hold. Here is why.

**Thesis status: Intriguing but Unproven. Hold at current ~5% weight. Watch Feb 26 call carefully.**

---

## What the Numbers Say

The revenue trajectory is what drew me to this company, and it has not disappointed:

| | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 (prelim) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 84.5 | 106.1 | 156.4 | ~160 |
| YoY % | 12.3% | 31.4% | 54.8% | 90.8% |
| QoQ % | +0.8% | +25.5% | +47.4% | +2.3% |

Revenue growth *accelerating* at scale — from $84M to a run rate of ~$640M annualized. That is the single most important thing I look for. I have seen it in Axon, in AppLovin, in Samsara. When it shows up like this, you pay attention.

The *leading indicator* that makes me even more excited: Marketplace Volume is growing at 131% YoY — *faster than revenue*. That is how platform businesses work. Volume today is revenue tomorrow. Figure Connect went from literally zero to 26% of revenue in nine months. Ecosystem & Tech Fees went from $7.3M to $35.7M YoY — nearly 5x. That is the highest-quality revenue stream in the company, and it is exploding.

EBITDA margins: 44.9% → 20.2% → 55.4% → 51.0% (Q3'24, Q4'24, Q3'25, Q4'25). The Q4'24 dip was real — gains on loan sales collapsed from $57M to $24M in a single quarter. That is the lumpy part of this business. But Q3-Q4 FY25 a

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# FIGR — Figure Technology Solutions
## Earnings Review: Q4 FY25 (Preliminary)
**Date:** 2026-02-22 | **Joe / StockNovice**
**Note:** Full earnings call scheduled Feb 26, 2026. This review is based on Q3 FY25 actuals + Q4 FY25 preliminary results only. No transcript available yet.

---

## Prior Beliefs

No prior Joe analysis exists for FIGR. This is a first look. FIGR is a 4.7% position in the wsm007 portfolio — tryout-sized, which is appropriate given the short public history and open questions.

---

## What the Numbers Say

### Revenue Trajectory

| | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 (prelim) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) [Non-GAAP] | ~$101 | ~$118 | $156.4 | $158–$162 |
| YoY Growth | ~12% | ~31% | ~55% | ~91% |

That's a straight line up. Growth went from 12% → 31% → 55% → 91% over four quarters. That is not a typo. For a company at this revenue run rate ($630M+ annualized), accelerating from 12% to 91% YoY is almost unheard of. The headline number here is as good as it gets.

### Profitability

| Metric | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 (prelim) |
|---|---|---|
| Adj EBITDA [Non-GAAP] | $86.4M (55.4% margin) | $80–$83M (49.8–53.4%) |
| Net Income [GAAP] | $89.8M | — |
| Adj EPS [Non-GAAP] | $0.34 | — |

55% adj EBITDA margin at $156M quarterly revenue. That's extraordinary. The Q4 slight step-down in margin (to 49.8–53.4%) is probably noise — management flagged "continued momentum" without giving FY26 guidance, so I can't read too much into it.

**BUT — the FCF divergence matters.** Nine-month FCF was $33.2M on $33.2M... wait. $33.2M FCF on what looks like ~$375M revenue = 8.9% FCF margin. EBITDA margins are 50-55%. That's a massive gap. The conversion from EBITDA to FCF is broken somewhere — likely working capital, CapEx, or cash taxes. I need the full Q4 call to understand this. A 55% EBITDA-to-9% FCF conversion ratio is a red flag I'm watching closely.

### Leading Indicators

| KPI | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 (prelim) |
|---|---|---|
| Marketplace volume | $2.47B

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# FIGR — Earnings Review (Q4 FY25 / Q3 FY25 Detailed)

> muji (CMF_muji)
> Date: 2026-02-22
> Quarter: Q4 FY25 (preliminary, Feb 13) + Q3 FY25 (reported, Nov 2025)
> Position: Long FIGR 4.7%
> Atlas baseline: ~/.agents/skills/atlas/analyses/FIGR/FIGR_earnings-review_Q4_FY25.md

---

## Links

- IR: https://investors.figure.com
- Q3 10-Q: SEC EDGAR accession 0002064124-25-000032
- Q4 Preliminary: Feb 13, 2026 press release
- Feb 26 full Q4 call: **MUST WATCH** — first FY26 guidance, SBC normalization, partner count clarity

---

## Revenue

| | Q124 | Q224 | Q324 | Q424 | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 | Q425 |
| | Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 75.3 | 80.8 | 101.0 | 83.9 | 84.5 | 106.1 | 156.4 | ~160 |
| YoY % | — | — | — | — | 12.3% | 31.4% | **54.8%** | **90.8%** |
| QoQ % | — | 7.3% | 25.1% | -17.0% | 0.8% | 25.5% | **47.4%** | 2.3% |

**Trajectory: 12% → 31% → 55% → 91% ^^**

That's 4 consecutive quarters of accelerating YoY growth. Marketplace volume is the leading indicator and it's growing 131% YoY — faster than revenue, which means the monetization flywheel hasn't even fully engaged yet.

---

## Platform Assessment — The muji Layer

Here's the thing: most analysts are covering FIGR as a fintech lender. That framing misses the thesis.

FIGR is a **multi-layer blockchain-native capital markets infrastructure platform**. Stack it out:

| Layer | Product | Status | muji Signal |
|-------|---------|--------|-------------|
| **Infrastructure** | Provenance Blockchain | Live, 75% RWA market share | The moat. Picks and shovels. |
| **AI/Credit** | DART (Decisive AI Ratings Tool) | 91% adoption, 76 lenders | Crowdsourced intelligence ^^ |
| **Marketplace** | Figure Connect | $1.13B volume, 33 participants | Breakout. $0 → 26% of revenue in 9 months !! |
| **Settlement/Liquidity** | YLDS stablecoin | $376M circulation, +15% MoM | Early but compounding |
| **Origination** | HELOC, Demo

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# FIGR — Figure Technology Solutions: Initiation Deep Dive

> **Date:** 2026-03-31
> **Type:** Stock Analysis (Initiation)
> **Market cap:** $6.68B | **Price:** ~$31.11 | **Shares diluted:** 247.8M
> **EV:** ~$6.04B | **TTM Revenue:** $507M | **EV/TTM Rev:** ~11.9X
> **Atlas baseline:** Read and referenced. I agree with Atlas's 4/5 conviction score and "Accelerating" trajectory. I diverge on valuation assessment given the March re-pricing (market cap has risen from $3.8B to $6.68B since Atlas's February review) and I provide a more granular revenue quality decomposition.

---

## Summary

Figure Technology Solutions is the dominant blockchain-native capital marketplace for tokenized consumer lending, commanding roughly 75% market share in RWA tokenization with $22 billion in cumulative HELOC originations. I haven't covered this company in the newsletter, but applying my framework, what I see is a rare combination: revenue accelerating from 12% to 91% YoY over four consecutive quarters, adjusted EBITDA margins of 49% for FY25 (targeting 60%+ medium-term), and a platform transition to capital-light infrastructure via Figure Connect that is happening in real time — 54% of marketplace volume now flows through Connect, up from essentially zero a year ago. The risk profile is material — 76% customer concentration in UPB purchases, a co-founder with reputational baggage, only two quarters of public history, and revenue streams that are inherently lumpier than subscription SaaS. At ~8X estimated forward EV/S on a company with a plausible 40%+ CAGR, the growth-adjusted valuation is among the cheapest I have seen in the current market environment. This is investable, but with discipline on position sizing given the concentration and execution risks.

---

## Business Overview

Figure operates at the intersection of consumer lending and blockchain infrastructure. The business has three distinct layers:

**Layer 1 — Loan origination system (LOS).** Figure and its 307+ partners 

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